Trading Strategies Using Technical Analysis

[jagankris]

Dear JK

Thanks for the million trader. But honestly spoken, I am by far not an intuition or gut trader. I may miss understood what you want to say with that.

DanPickUp

Dear Dan,

In my understanding the people who are absolutely in sync with market movements at ease are the GUT/Intuition traders taking the person who I met as an example.

Does this mean that he is not doing his TA homework and gathering fundamental news - Nope he does all the required home work/analysis and good money management skills.

He tracks some selected 30 scripts in various sectors and day trades them.

So where that guy successful is he knows when to pick and the toughest and most important is when to exit and I am like Abhimanyu I know where to enter and not to exit twice exited profit position in loss for not having a good exit rule.

If we keep trading few scripts regularly by default the levels its behavior is known easily well before the indicators say.

Like wise by combining market Experience+FA+TA+News and Price action one could definitely predict the market directions at ease.Which no indicator can predict.

That is what I mean gut.

And I bet you and Raunak bhai must be experts in that :thumb: :clapping:

Best Regards,
JK

 

[SwingKing]

Dear Raunak Bhai,

FII data says markets are turning bearish for short term :

For the past three days their inflow has gradually slowed down.
Consistently they are short in the stock futures for 3 days.

Historically markets have been bearish most of the years in January.
FII's are heavy buyers of 6200 puts day before yesterday.(My assumption as puts OI increased heavily while calls didn't).

Since the reach of 6334 I haven't seen FII's investing in Index heavily/stock futures.Technically i don't know how to analyze accumulation/distribution.
But FII data tells they are not actively investing at these rates.

Index short - 1641.80 cr
Options - Should be 6200 and 6100 calls - 1652 CR as addition of puts in significant today.
Stock futures - 494.69 cr
Equity - -240.3cr.

Brokerage house views are not that positive.

Some say Indian valuations are on the higher side compared to peers.Nikkei for instance.

Like some people say probably markets may move upto 5900 (India infoline).
Nifty to touch 6800 (Target courtesy Guppy Trader ).

Though Hindalco witnessed bullishness, observed heavy hedging of TATASTEEL at 685.May be short build up on a closing basis.

I will be surprised if markets move against FII's being short in the index and stocks.

BIT worried.I generally hate bearish market .

Best Regards,
JK

Jagan My Dear,

What happens on short term is anyone's guess. Things are jittery but despite of that we will move up. Markets always makes range and move up/down. Hence what is happening right now is simply that. Within the broad range of 5700 - 6100 we can move anywhere. But this has to only be perceived has a range formation and not a Bearish phase. In my opinion, if my reading is correct, we will see 6800 + in the next six months. How we spend time in this zone will determine how much we can move further. As of now things are fine and hence my view is intact.

Regarding Options data I can only say that it changes too fast for any valid conclusion to be drawn. For example, day before yesterday 6300 Call was being written and yesterday that call lost significant OI and 6200 was being written. How can you draw conclusions of the same? You cannot go around modifying your strategy every day. Hence, its better to stay away from OI and Options activity. Atleast this works for me. Sometimes I like to look at the data but most of the times I can do without them.

Too much of analysis leads to paralysis.

Tc

 

[jagankris]

Dear Raunak bhai,

Oops FXCentral don't have charts for Jindal SAW
Bought 1lot @ 209.
Given a good review.
Should I hold it for swing or close it as BTST ?

TIA.

Best Regards,
JK

 

[SwingKing]

Dear Raunak bhai,

Oops FXCentral don't have charts for Jindal SAW
Bought 1lot @ 209.
Given a good review.
Should I hold it for swing or close it as BTST ?

TIA.

Best Regards,
JK

Jagan My Dear,

I don't track this script.

But based on what we have discussed on PM's, I will ask you to focus on Investments and not on BTST. Why don't you and many others here understand the importance of Investing in markets. There are so many scripts which will grow leaps and bound in coming years. Focus on stock picking and on Investments. If you really want to get short term returns, then try and Trade Nifty or BNifty. Get everything else out of your Investing/Trading Plan.

Tc

 

[Gang123]

Dear Raunak Bhai,

FII data says markets are turning bearish for short term :

For the past three days their inflow has gradually slowed down.
Consistently they are short in the stock futures for 3 days.

Historically markets have been bearish most of the years in January.
FII's are heavy buyers of 6200 puts day before yesterday.(My assumption as puts OI increased heavily while calls didn't).

Since the reach of 6334 I haven't seen FII's investing in Index heavily/stock futures.Technically i don't know how to analyze accumulation/distribution.
But FII data tells they are not actively investing at these rates.

Index short - 1641.80 cr
Options - Should be 6200 and 6100 calls - 1652 CR as addition of puts in significant today.
Stock futures - 494.69 cr
Equity - -240.3cr.

Brokerage house views are not that positive.

Some say Indian valuations are on the higher side compared to peers.Nikkei for instance.

Like some people say probably markets may move upto 5900 (India infoline).
Nifty to touch 6800 (Target courtesy Guppy Trader ).

Though Hindalco witnessed bullishness, observed heavy hedging of TATASTEEL at 685.May be short build up on a closing basis.

I will be surprised if markets move against FII's being short in the index and stocks.

BIT worried.I generally hate bearish market .

Best Regards,
JK

Dear Jagan,

Please Leave the FIIs and DIIs yar, Let us try to find out the opportunities to make money na.

It seems BANKNIFTY is moving towards 11050 levels, Please check with the EOD & 60 min chart. with fib levels. I find a support for BANKNIFTY around 11050 only. It give us confidence to trade on shorter time frames when longer time frame tell us something.

Please see my todays trades.

Regards,
Gangadharan:thumb:

 

[jagankris]

Dear Jagan,

Please Leave the FIIs and DIIs yar, Let us try to find out the opportunities to make money na.

Please see my todays trades.

Regards,
Gangadharan:thumb:

Dear Gangaji,

Excellent trades !!! :thumb: :clap: :clapping:
Just before I got your message I was wondering your absence for two days and I just checked your status.
So some telepathy works

Raunak Bhai has also said the same.
Stop over analysis

You are also stressing the same - Cool I will forget FII's and DII's and focus trading.

Does share khan software you are using has scanning facilities ?

TIA.

Best regards,
JK

 

[jagankris]

Jagan My Dear,

I don't track this script.

But based on what we have discussed on PM's, I will ask you to focus on Investments and not on BTST. Why don't you and many others here understand the importance of Investing in markets. There are so many scripts which will grow leaps and bound in coming years. Focus on stock picking and on Investments. If you really want to get short term returns, then try and Trade Nifty or BNifty. Get everything else out of your Investing/Trading Plan.

Tc

Dear Raunak Bhai,

1. For stock pickings I need to learn Fundamentals which I am zero currently.
2. Also the past failures in investments and readings favoring trading over buy and hold strategy has made to have a strong positive bias towards Short term Trading.

Will try to improve on it and allocate funds for investments separately.
I think definitely that will help me to understand the markets better.

My fund manager is here to guide me :clap:

TIA.

Best Regards,
JK

 

[SwingKing]

Word on Markets

Markets are playing a bit of yo yo all around. The best way to deal with it currently is to be willing to trade on both sides. As of now the way I am trading markets is fairly simple. As far as we are above 6000 I am long in it. As and when 6000 gets breached, I would be going swing short on the market. Longer term view remains intact but for that view to play out, we need to give markets some time to move forward.

I still maintain the same view on banking sector where staying away from it currently is advisable. Sector is going under good consolidation and till strength emerges we must sit tight and wait for an opportunity to spot stability. As far as portfolio construction goes, one needs to position themselves into defensives and wait for markets to show the way ahead. Currently defensives like consumer goods and pharmaceuticals are doing well. Among high beta sectors, positions in Commodities can be initiated on retracements.

Tc

 

[DanPickUp]

Dear Raunak Bhai,

1. For stock pickings I need to learn Fundamentals which I am zero currently.
2. Also the past failures in investments and readings favoring trading over buy and hold strategy has made to have a strong positive bias towards Short term Trading.

Will try to improve on it and allocate funds for investments separately.
I think definitely that will help me to understand the markets better.

My fund manager is here to guide me :clap:

TIA.

Best Regards,
JK

Hi JK

Here some thoughts and real experiences from my side I made years ago, when I was directly involved in customer relation ships.. It is your free choice to think what ever you want about it. You may can use some of it.

I do not know, how much money you have to invest. Learning a lot of fundamentals for stock picking is not needed, if you have small money. Even if you get bigger, it is not really needed under certain circumstances.

I have met a lot of people in the past with bigger money. Some of them thought, that they know all the fundamentals in the world and tried to tell us at those times, how to invest there money in that and this stocks. We did it. Most of them lost a lot of money. Why ? It was not there real business or they did it on tips of some body else. Some of them where warned from us, not to invest in that and that stock. If they then complained about it, it was not our business.

On the other hand, some of the most successful stock pickers I ever have met in the past have been people, which only invested in companies, they did understand what they do and produce.

Those successful people did some times not have much education in financial business or portfolio management. Some of them had there own little business running and did this beside there work. Some of them did only buy shares from companies in there nearer surrounding. They were knowing the bosses of this companies and that was there protection for bigger losses.

It sounds may out of thinking, when reading in the forum about how to invest in stocks. So what, it is an other way of thinking and acting and it can be a very successful way of investing in shares.

Have a nice evening

DanPickUp

 

[gauharjk]

Raunak sir,

Banking stocks have dipped to unreal levels. Never though I would see SBI @2615 when Nifty is above 6000...!

I have heard rumors that this might change after Infosys results on 13th January.

Technically, I don't know. Gangadharan bro says BNF would find support @ 11050 levels...

I don't know how supports work for a collective index rather than specific stocks... but I guess they do...