Trading Strategies Using Technical Analysis

[SwingKing]

Investment Sheet Update As of 6th April 2010

Ticker		Date		Entry	As of 6th April 2010	Percentage Change	Continue Holding
ABGSHIP		28/01/10	279.8	264.8			-5.36%				Y
AMBUJA		28/01/10	102.75	117			13.87%				Y
ACC		28/01/10	889	951.3			7.01%				Y
GESHIP		28/01/10	287.75	317.3			10.27%				Y
ABB		25/01/10	815.9	841.2			3.10%				Y
CENTURYTEX	25/01/10	521.8	530.55			1.68%				Y
ROLTA		01/02/10	203.2	183.8			-9.55%			   Have Exited
GTLINFRA	01/02/10	42.53	43.35			1.93%				Y
DISHTV		01/02/10	41.95	37.9			-9.65%			   Have Exited
ZEEL		01/02/10	261.4	281.35			7.63%				Y
RELIANCE	01/02/10	1040.85	1123			7.89%				Y
POWERGRID	01/02/10	112.4	107.2			-4.63%				Y
FINANTECH	01/02/10	1539	1585			2.99%				Y
COLPAL		05/02/10	702	691.8			-1.45%				Y
DABUR		08/02/10	175.9	168			-4.49%				Y
GLAXO		26/02/10	1707	1762			3.22%				Y
PIRHEALTH	26/02/10	421	448			6.41%				Y
ORIENTBANK	05/03/10	302	331.4			9.74%				Y
IDEA		17/03/10	64.35	63.75			-0.93%				Y

 

[SwingKing]

Crucial Week Ahead

Markets globally have rallied for quite sometime now. In particular if we speak of India, investors have got a healthy return of over 70% on the index alone. There has been no notable period of correction in this one year period. Probably equity markets were having their best time last year as a result of low interest rates, low P/E multiple and the positive growth story of India. However, at this juncture, things dont look that positive. World market problems are beginning to creep up, commodity and oil prices are rising, dollar is continuously falling and the inflation rates are heading north. Typically these scenarios are never good for stock markets and I feel now it is time to book profits and have cash in hand (atleast 75%).

The current price rise and the currency appreciating is a sign of problems to come in the stock markets. The RBI which will meet this month for monetary policy review is already hinting at hiking interest rates. The IIP numbers have been good in the past and on Monday if the numbers turn out to be more positive, then it would almost ensure a rate hike in coming few days. Moreover, if one observes the market action closely, Capital good sector and Basic material sector is beginning to do well. These sectors usually do well in middle expansion phase of economy where rate hikes are part of the economic scenario. On 13th April 2010, Infosys is going to declare its results and guidance. It is perhaps going to set the tone for the markets. Even if the markets continue to rise, I would personally be very skeptical regarding the rally. Upside may indeed exist, but the risk to reward ratio does not favor a trade currently.

 

[saivenkat]

Re: Crucial Week Ahead

Typically these scenarios are never good for stock markets and I feel now it is time to book profits and have cash in hand (atleast 75%)..

I agree, what is the cut off point will you place to exit all longs, for example your long time investment portfolio. Will you advice to exit in the event of market correcting? or will you advice to hold all longs irrespective of the fact correction setting in?

Regards
Saivenkat

 

[SwingKing]

Re: Crucial Week Ahead

I agree, what is the cut off point will you place to exit all longs, for example your long time investment portfolio. Will you advice to exit in the event of market correcting? or will you advice to hold all longs irrespective of the fact correction setting in?

Regards
Saivenkat

Sai, last week I squared off 40% of my portfolio. In the coming week, on Monday, I am going to offload another 40% or so. See, I am not positive on the market, because technically and fundamentally it is not the right time to be investing. I'm willing to miss out on another 1000+ rally but I am not willing to go against what I am thinking. In the mean time I will be undertaking swing trades so that even if market's correct, I am not hurt badly. On an average I have had a very good return on my portfolio and I don't intend to be too greedy for another 10-15% or so. Once I am comfortable with the market's, I'll return back to commit funds.

But for me, as of now, swing trading seems to be the flavor of the month.

Tc.

 

[prst]

swing trading involves trading on some select scrips, based on some good news/momentum in the scrip. am i right?

 

[SwingKing]

swing trading involves trading on some select scrips, based on some good news/momentum in the scrip. am i right?

Yes Prst Swing trading essentially means staying in stocks which show good momentum (upwards or downwards). Swing trades may or may not be based on news. I personally dont care about the news. I have a system/methodology for swing trades and i follow that.

Tc.

 

[scplindia]

Suzlon seems to be heading south, pl advise

 

[SwingKing]

Suzlon seems to be heading south, pl advise

I had given you certain levels. Just follow that.

Tc.

 

[scplindia]

any recommendations for swing trading.
Thanks in advance
Prem

 

[SwingKing]

Have posted it in the swing trading thread ..

Tc