Timepass's notes

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In my opinion J Welles Wilder defined the market movement with his true range concept crystal clear better than Elliot. This Elliot wave concept is something like astrology, sometimes we win and many times we loose. Because elliot wave depends on zig for the turning points which is not reliable at all. But Wilder's method is pure mathematics and no astrology. We can clearly mark out the closing price when a stock is trending or in sideways to erase our capital. Here is my chart of my watchlist for Dec-20 which show crystal clear trend or non-trend based on Wilder's True range concept. The values are if a stock breaking above 14day ATR positive
and if a stock is breaking below 14day ATR then negative. If a stock is trading within 14day ATR then I assign zero value because they are somewhere in NR4 or NR7 or in Insideday. View attachment 39446
Wow !! what an article.


"Can't agree more.

Trading like any other business is not easy. In every business including trading, execution is the most difficult part.

Over the years many people turn up at my office requesting me to open a company for them so that they can run some business based on some idea they got. In most cases, I turn them away.

I will share one statistic which I normally share in my "motivational talks" that I some times give on entrepreneurship in guest lectures at colleges.

"New York city has over 18000 restaurants. If you have dinner in one new restaurant every day of your life, it would take about 49 years of your life to cover all of them."

Look at the business scope and size there.

Now the more interesting part is here: "In that city, more than 90% restaurants closed down within 10 months of their opening"

Now, go figure, how easy running that business is.

This is how my lectures on entrepreneurial motivation start.

Now, why did I turn away potential clients? I could have provided them the company registration, GST registration etc., charge some fees and could have left them. Is it not?

Well let me tell you even today, I sometimes receive phone calls from GST officers, enquiring some old businesses that I happened to register long time ago. Those officers could not follow up with those businesses that their owners abandoned. By this time, I wouldn't be able to really help because the business owner is not answering my calls as well.

And that certainly is not exciting.

Am I negative? Maybe.

Am I practical? A resounding "Yes".

If some son of a farmer comes to me telling he has 20 acres of land outside a town called Gadwal and he wants me to register company as well as in RERA so that he can get a bank loan to develop his land into apartment complexes, I look at the story and tell him that it is not happening. (Somebody apparently, built apartments there recently and sold 3BHKs for 80 Lakhs).

An old friend of mine who returned from the USA wanted to set up a factory in Nellore (town located on Kolkata Chennai highway) so that he could import raw leather from Kolkata, process it in Nellore and send it to shoe factories in Chennai, I looked at the entire story and told him that it is not going to work.

Yes, I lost those clients. Even if I had taken them on, I couldn't have generated any reasonable income from them, for my efforts, because those projects are still lying just in the hearts of their owners. That is the progress so far.

The only difference between the above and stock trading is that stock trading is easy to enter into (these days, they call it "Ease of doing business").

You don't need to go to a Chartered Accountant's office and discuss the business plan.

In trading you get intra-day loan of 142 times of your share capital with zero interest. ( With Rs. 6000 margin money you cloud trade 3000 shares of BEL futures lot on Cover Order and the shares are roughly valued 8.5 lakhs. This is two year old Zerodha information that I found in my trading notes).

Thereby, trading kills a budding businessman softly. (I call it "Ease of getting butchered") That makes trading a more potential destroyer."

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