prada nice to see some stock analysis.I thought you will stick to NIFTY only.
Also if you do analysis on currency such as USDINR don't hesitate to post.
btw My experience shows RElINFRA and NIFTY has very high correlation i.e directly proportional , if REL INFRA goes to that level then nifty has to retrace substantially.
Also if you do analysis on currency such as USDINR don't hesitate to post.
btw My experience shows RElINFRA and NIFTY has very high correlation i.e directly proportional , if REL INFRA goes to that level then nifty has to retrace substantially.
Market update:
Global markets are precariously poised at the moment. Hangseng Index was the first one to start its correction and other markets followed it on the way down. Although US markets retraced some of its losses on extremely thin volumes on Friday, it was the first weekly decline in over 6 straight weeks of gains. I personally feel(although market might prove me wrong) we have a top in place at the moment for SP500. 1416 and 1420 would act as strong resistance on the way up and a breach below Friday's low of 1398 would open the flood gates for a significant correction. Let us let the market to do its talking before we take a decisive call.
Coming to our own markets, Nifty stalled at just a few points shy of 5450 and was quick to retrace some of its gains. This is a key resistant point as posted in my previous weekly update. Further up move completely depends on a decisive move above 5450. Until then we can expect a very range bound volatile market with alot of whipsawing next week. If one had read my post last morning , then shorts should have been covered close to 5370( yesterday's low was 5371 ). Bank Nifty and Midcap index have been under-performing the benchmark indices for a while now which is definitely a cause of concern for the bulls and shows lack of conviction at higher levels. Another good indicator to watch is domestic institutional selling which has been steadily building up for the last couple of months. I have always been keen at watching activities of DIIs than FIIs for future trends. This generally indicates a much accurate forecast of things to come. Generally DII selling over time is succeeded by a sharp correction. On the way up resistances are placed at 5419-5433-5450. Supports- 5390-5367-5349.
Historically, September is a weak month for equities and we can expect volumes to pick up and clear direction to emerge after next week.
Happy weekend !
PraDa
Global markets are precariously poised at the moment. Hangseng Index was the first one to start its correction and other markets followed it on the way down. Although US markets retraced some of its losses on extremely thin volumes on Friday, it was the first weekly decline in over 6 straight weeks of gains. I personally feel(although market might prove me wrong) we have a top in place at the moment for SP500. 1416 and 1420 would act as strong resistance on the way up and a breach below Friday's low of 1398 would open the flood gates for a significant correction. Let us let the market to do its talking before we take a decisive call.
Coming to our own markets, Nifty stalled at just a few points shy of 5450 and was quick to retrace some of its gains. This is a key resistant point as posted in my previous weekly update. Further up move completely depends on a decisive move above 5450. Until then we can expect a very range bound volatile market with alot of whipsawing next week. If one had read my post last morning , then shorts should have been covered close to 5370( yesterday's low was 5371 ). Bank Nifty and Midcap index have been under-performing the benchmark indices for a while now which is definitely a cause of concern for the bulls and shows lack of conviction at higher levels. Another good indicator to watch is domestic institutional selling which has been steadily building up for the last couple of months. I have always been keen at watching activities of DIIs than FIIs for future trends. This generally indicates a much accurate forecast of things to come. Generally DII selling over time is succeeded by a sharp correction. On the way up resistances are placed at 5419-5433-5450. Supports- 5390-5367-5349.
Historically, September is a weak month for equities and we can expect volumes to pick up and clear direction to emerge after next week.
Happy weekend !
PraDa
Currency Update:
EUR/USD: My analysis on this pair, clearly indicates that its pain is not yet over and it should resume its downtrend soon and sub 1.20 is a matter of time. Current rally is technically a corrective one and USD should regain its strength in the weeks ahead. EUR/USD is a sell with a target price of 1.1950.
USD/INR: This seems to be in a complex correction after a hectic rally in 2012. Its difficult to analyse it until clarity emerges. Interesting aspect is that although EURO has strengthened against USD in the recent past, USD/INR has hardly moved. Technically, a fall and close below 55 should take it to recent low of 54.2. Rise and close above 55.65, should give it a bullish momentum. There is still a pending upmove to be completed in this pair and the target would be above 60, unless there is a failure at an attempt at all time highs again.
At the moment I am overall bullish on USD.
EUR/USD: My analysis on this pair, clearly indicates that its pain is not yet over and it should resume its downtrend soon and sub 1.20 is a matter of time. Current rally is technically a corrective one and USD should regain its strength in the weeks ahead. EUR/USD is a sell with a target price of 1.1950.
USD/INR: This seems to be in a complex correction after a hectic rally in 2012. Its difficult to analyse it until clarity emerges. Interesting aspect is that although EURO has strengthened against USD in the recent past, USD/INR has hardly moved. Technically, a fall and close below 55 should take it to recent low of 54.2. Rise and close above 55.65, should give it a bullish momentum. There is still a pending upmove to be completed in this pair and the target would be above 60, unless there is a failure at an attempt at all time highs again.
At the moment I am overall bullish on USD.
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