Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

prada

Well-Known Member
#1
This thread will be useful for both beginners as well as positional traders who trade on the basis of trend with a medium term outlook. Trend analysis is an extremely tedious job and needs a lot of bits and pieces to be put together to capture the bigger picture. This thread will be focused on exactly doing that in capturing the bigger picture.

Points to be noted:
1. Nifty update will be posted once a week( or in between if there is any significant trend change ) after a comprehensive analysis.
2. Members are requested not to engage themselves in heated arguments with other members in this thread.
3. Anyone is welcome to this thread provided the discussions here are based only on the market.
4. Members are requested to post their messages as much as possible in English only.

Wishing one and all a very prosperous trading year ahead!
PraDa


PS: IMO, Short term- 1 month, Medium term- 3 months


Disclaimer: Though we try our best to be as accurate as possible with our analysis , sometimes market has its own thing to do, hence before taking your trading call , please use your own judgement.
 
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rh6996

Well-Known Member
#3
This thread will be useful for both beginners as well as positional traders who trade on the basis of trend with a medium term outlook. Trend analysis is an extremely tedious job and needs a lot of bits and pieces to be put together to capture the bigger picture. This thread will be focused on exactly doing that in capturing the bigger picture.

Points to be noted:
1. Nifty update will be posted once a week( or in between if there is any significant trend change ) after a comprehensive analysis.
2. Members are requested not to engage themselves in heated arguments with other members in this thread.
3. Anyone is welcome to this thread provided the discussions here are based only on the market.
4. Members are requested to post their messages as much as possible in English only.

Wishing one and all a very prosperous trading year ahead!
PraDa


Disclaimer: Though we try our best to be as accurate as possible with our analysis , sometimes market has its own thing to do, hence before taking your trading call , please use your own judgement.
Thanks for this initiative... look forward to your views and if possible with reason behind your view on an Index!
Do consider posting views on other Indices also!!
 

prada

Well-Known Member
#4
Is this the beginning of a new bull market ?
After the recent rally and resilience seen in our market , the question in everyone's mind is " are we witnessing a new bull market? ". Without a second thought my answer would be NO. I would call this a minor correction within a secondary bear market which is still within a primary bull market. This might sound confusing but let me elaborate this further. Bull market which started in 2001 saw its peak in 2008 giving returns of close to 650 % in a span of 7 years. Then we saw the collapse which erased more than 50 % of its gains. This was the start of the bear market within an underlying multi-year bull market which started in 2001. Subsequently the upward rally what we have witnessed thereafter could be termed as correction within this bear market especially since the previous high of 6357 was not taken out in the rally witnessed in 2009-2010.

Now this is where technical analysis comes in handy , as to what the future direction is going to look like. Before we resume the next leg of the power bull market rally which started in 2001, which could take us all the way to 12,350 within a period of next 6-7 years, there is pending correction which could be quite painful. This correction will be quite sharp and I dont want to put out numbers here, since that could be quite disturbing at this moment and I dont want to receive flack from other members since this is my first analytical post in this thread.

Now coming to the short to medium term. This minor correction , we are witnessing within this bear market rally has a decent resistance placed close to 5380 area since the falling trendline between 6336 and 5630 comes in close to this area. If this is tackled successfully then the next resistance is placed at 5446 and 5505 and nifty is expected to top out somewhere in this range. In case there is some liquidity gush and if nifty is pushed through the barrier at 5630 then the market will eventually top out close to 5850-5950 before the deep correction begins. The more the market goes up from here, much deeper will be the correction ahead. Picking the top from here on and having a short position in place at the right time will definitely be a delight for the bears. That's it for now. Have a wonderful weekend.
 

prada

Well-Known Member
#5
Weekly spot levels to watch for this truncated week:

Support: 5276-5245-5207
Resistance: 5347-5360-5382

Have a good trading week!

P.S: Watch out for Hangseng Index. This will be the first market to crack, which will then indicate weakness globally. Timing it is difficult but for now the top seems to be in place.
 
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prada

Well-Known Member
#6
Since Nifty has taken out the upper most weekly resistance level, it is now targeting 5505 as mentioned in my weekly market update post. On the way up resistances are placed at 5427- 5446- 5465. 5446 is a very important level to watch for and could pose quite a bit of resistance. Immediate support- 5375-5347.


Weekly spot levels to watch for this truncated week:

Support: 5276-5245-5207
Resistance: 5347-5360-5382

Have a good trading week!

P.S: Watch out for Hangseng Index. This will be the first market to crack, which will then indicate weakness globally. Timing it is difficult but for now the top seems to be in place.
 
#7
Weekly spot levels to watch for this truncated week:

Support: 5276-5245-5207
Resistance: 5347-5360-5382

Have a good trading week!

P.S: Watch out for Hangseng Index. This will be the first market to crack, which will then indicate weakness globally. Timing it is difficult but for now the top seems to be in place.

Thanks Prada.

are you going to explain how these levels are achieved?(for beginners)
 
#9
Krishna, it would be time consuming and difficult for me to explain this. I will try to some other time.

PraDa
You appear to be a very good hindsight analyst. I expect you will post why and how nifty moved as per expectations after the day is over.

I seen traders talking of long term view... but 2001 takes the cake...! Market is drifting up and you maintain we are in a corrective phase of a bear market.

How is the beginner supposed to take action based on such analysis which spans for half a generation.
 

prada

Well-Known Member
#10
Why do we backfill data to read charts? The more the historical data available, the more easier it is to analyse the future trends. Hope you have heard of Kondratiev cycles, super cycles etc. which are 45 years and 70 year cycles? Please read my post completely and then let us discuss. Looks like you haven't read the last para which talks about the short to medium term.

You appear to be a very good hindsight analyst. I expect you will post why and how nifty moved as per expectations after the day is over.

I seen traders talking of long term view... but 2001 takes the cake...! Market is drifting up and you maintain we are in a corrective phase of a bear market.

How is the beginner supposed to take action based on such analysis which spans for half a generation.
 

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