Is this the beginning of a new bull market ?
After the recent rally and resilience seen in our market , the question in everyone's mind is " are we witnessing a new bull market? ". Without a second thought my answer would be NO. I would call this a minor correction within a secondary bear market which is still within a primary bull market. This might sound confusing but let me elaborate this further. Bull market which started in 2001 saw its peak in 2008 giving returns of close to 650 % in a span of 7 years. Then we saw the collapse which erased more than 50 % of its gains. This was the start of the bear market within an underlying multi-year bull market which started in 2001. Subsequently the upward rally what we have witnessed thereafter could be termed as correction within this bear market especially since the previous high of 6357 was not taken out in the rally witnessed in 2009-2010.
Now this is where technical analysis comes in handy , as to what the future direction is going to look like. Before we resume the next leg of the power bull market rally which started in 2001, which could take us all the way to 12,350 within a period of next 6-7 years, there is pending correction which could be quite painful. This correction will be quite sharp and I dont want to put out numbers here, since that could be quite disturbing at this moment and I dont want to receive flack from other members since this is my first analytical post in this thread.
Now coming to the short to medium term. This minor correction , we are witnessing within this bear market rally has a decent resistance placed close to 5380 area since the falling trendline between 6336 and 5630 comes in close to this area. If this is tackled successfully then the next resistance is placed at 5446 and 5505 and nifty is expected to top out somewhere in this range. In case there is some liquidity gush and if nifty is pushed through the barrier at 5630 then the market will eventually top out close to 5850-5950 before the deep correction begins. The more the market goes up from here, much deeper will be the correction ahead. Picking the top from here on and having a short position in place at the right time will definitely be a delight for the bears. That's it for now. Have a wonderful weekend.
After the recent rally and resilience seen in our market , the question in everyone's mind is " are we witnessing a new bull market? ". Without a second thought my answer would be NO. I would call this a minor correction within a secondary bear market which is still within a primary bull market. This might sound confusing but let me elaborate this further. Bull market which started in 2001 saw its peak in 2008 giving returns of close to 650 % in a span of 7 years. Then we saw the collapse which erased more than 50 % of its gains. This was the start of the bear market within an underlying multi-year bull market which started in 2001. Subsequently the upward rally what we have witnessed thereafter could be termed as correction within this bear market especially since the previous high of 6357 was not taken out in the rally witnessed in 2009-2010.
Now this is where technical analysis comes in handy , as to what the future direction is going to look like. Before we resume the next leg of the power bull market rally which started in 2001, which could take us all the way to 12,350 within a period of next 6-7 years, there is pending correction which could be quite painful. This correction will be quite sharp and I dont want to put out numbers here, since that could be quite disturbing at this moment and I dont want to receive flack from other members since this is my first analytical post in this thread.
Now coming to the short to medium term. This minor correction , we are witnessing within this bear market rally has a decent resistance placed close to 5380 area since the falling trendline between 6336 and 5630 comes in close to this area. If this is tackled successfully then the next resistance is placed at 5446 and 5505 and nifty is expected to top out somewhere in this range. In case there is some liquidity gush and if nifty is pushed through the barrier at 5630 then the market will eventually top out close to 5850-5950 before the deep correction begins. The more the market goes up from here, much deeper will be the correction ahead. Picking the top from here on and having a short position in place at the right time will definitely be a delight for the bears. That's it for now. Have a wonderful weekend.
