Some of my forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

Someone just alerted me to something via e-mail. I have a demo with XTD Trading. I just noticed I have a data feed problem on my demo.
I still remember the TL I drew among other things in that 5600 area when I said how we would get a drop to the 4600's. I just have to make heads or tails of all this.

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Someone sent me a PM about the possibility of the TL being broken for Nifty on the monthly. This depends on how you draw it. I don't like a TL with no angle so the bottom one is nil. LOL, okay until we get there.
The second TL is located on the chart, and we did get the typical break. It has already been corrected, and the move deeper has been made.
Just because all TL objectives have been made, it still does not mean it could not move lower. It only means the TL was broken with the typical candle, corrected, and a move deeper was made.
Monthly candles do not possess the identical attributes of the lower TF's. This is because it is a more even measurement, so the "typical" candles are not as easily definable.
BTW, that TL break was made at circa 5600. It had a lot of influence of my LT forecast at the time of the market heading to the 4600's.

 

[AMAN TANEJA]

Re: Ichimoku II-- the tenken and kijun

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The settings I use on the ichimoku is always the default at 9,26,52, so when I refer to formulas, my settings will be your reference point.

Tenken formula: High + Low of last 9 candles / 2
Kijun formula: High + Low of last 26 candles / 2

The above formula shows why the tenken is the faster of the 2 indicators.

There is much that could be said about the tenken and kijun, so I'll probably stay on it for awhile. As always, I will show its actual properties and share some personal insights.

Notice the uptrend to the west of the chart and the downtrend to the east of the chart. It is showing a very strong uptrend and a very strong downtrend. I'm not into cliches as it is obvious one look at the charts with no indicators tells us which way the trend is headed.
The thing to notice is that once the candle cleared the tenken and kijun, it never hit the kijun. This is showing a very strong trend, as in most trends, the kijun will contain. A little later we will cover what happens when price ranges on the other side of the tenken but still stays on this side of the kijun.

At this point, let me also add how to set stops in a trend. Look at the kijun, count back 3 candles, and that is your stop. This way there is a defined way of trailing the stop as each candle evolves. Oh yeah, I should also mention it works! Therefore, current stop by using this daily chart would be 1.3239. (BTW, that is only one way of ascertaining a stop. It works, but there is nothing concrete that says it has to be done that way.

So far, this might be boring for many. But, like I said, I'll be on the tenken and kijun for awhile, so I'm sure it will get more interesting as we progress.

Also, I'm open to all other conversations. Don't anyone feel you are interrupting the flow by asking or commenting about whatever market, indicator, or other type of TA's you want to talk about. Nice thing about a forum is I can carry on 5 conversations at one time and not feel like the white jackets will be coming to get me.

sir,

i would say its not at all boring, infact i wud say i m enjoying it.
ur method of teaching is absolutely superb and i feel if i get even 50% of the knowledge, you are providing , i wud start getting a feel bout the market.
keeping fingers crossed, i hope i dont disappoint you and proves out to be a gud student.

i could not u'stand "when price ranges on the other side of the tenken but still stays on this side of the kijun, but i hope i m gonna get a lesson bout it in future, so leaving it for now.

or does it means that candle has crossed tenken but have not crossed kinjun, or we can say candle is in between tenken and kijun, plz clear it out

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Ichimoku II-- the tenken and kijun

Aman, this thread is 282 pages long. Many people have read the same things over and over again. I'm sure for you this is like going to kindergarten for the first time, which is a good. I enjoy the old-timers, but I also enjoy new blood. It brings on a new sense of vigor.
You'll never disappoint me. Charts and indicators is what I enjoy talking about, so we are all here for a mutual benefit.

Ranging on the other side means price action started on top of the indicator (In a downtrend.) and is now on the other side of it. The "this" side is the top side in the case of a downtrend. So, in essence, it means exactly "that candle has crossed tenken but have not crossed kinjun".

Feel free to ask and comment. You don't want to get left behind anywhere.

My method of teaching is at least different. It comes from no books, audios, or any industry hype. It comes from personal experience and observation. I read a lot in this forum, but that is because I am still in the learning phase, and I also like to teach. You see, here at Traders' University, there are no degrees, just constant learning. The day I stop learning is the day I retire.

sir,

i would say its not at all boring, infact i wud say i m enjoying it.
ur method of teaching is absolutely superb and i feel if i get even 50% of the knowledge, you are providing , i wud start getting a feel bout the market.
keeping fingers crossed, i hope i dont disappoint you and proves out to be a gud student.

i could not u'stand "when price ranges on the other side of the tenken but still stays on this side of the kijun, but i hope i m gonna get a lesson bout it in future, so leaving it for now.

or does it means that candle has crossed tenken but have not crossed kinjun, or we can say candle is in between tenken and kijun, plz clear it out

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Ichimoku V--tenken and kijun

When I originally made this post, it was made with the wrong chart. When I made the post, the price was exactly where my entry on the short is. I entered the trade then made the post.
You can see it has already started to make my point.

Next: The weekend festivities. WR, WF and all the S&R's.

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I was getting ready to leave for the day (almost 1:30pm here) when this chart hit me in the face, and it is another pair we have focused a lot on.

This is also going to be more live. I will always post a sequence of charts on this, so if the rest are belated, then you know me taking off caused the gap.

The kijun has gone sideways in the cloud. The tenken is diverged in a big way from the kijun, which is another form of measuring equilibrium. Even though I have not made it to the components of the cloud, look how far from the cloud the candle has wondered. This scenario is suggesting a big collapse, ichimoku style.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Weekly Review--121811

EUR/USD: As long as this pair stays above 1.3010 this week, there should not be an issue with this week marking the beginning of the new trend. If that level breaks, then there is still danger of a fall to the WS1 at 1.2917. Even the 4-hour chart looks tough. A fresh kijun currently at 1.3106 waits to impede progress, then the WR1 at 1.3155, then a fresh cloud which should be at circa 1.3189 by the time it gets there. If it makes it to the WR2 at 1.3274, then next week it should be easier going for the pair.

The pair dipped to 1.2982, which made things kind of tough to start the week, but then it finally broke away as it spike on the other side of the WR1 and 1.3189 R level to the peak at 1.3197.

USD/JPY: My data for this pair goes back to Feb 1992. Last weeks range of 59 pips marked the low for that entire period. Thats how inept things are getting for this pair. There are no real trading opportunities here. Even though the pair is caught in an updraft, 78.10 could be hit, but it looks like it could blow the hourly off the chart. zzzz

This pair performed even worse this week than it did last week. The peak was 78.22, but the entire range was 55 pips. It look like a huge rally on the hourly.

GBP/USD: The strong finish that ended last week should continue, but briefly. The WS1 at 1.5476 needs to contain any correction. As long as that is the case, then the WR2 at 1.5684 should be visited.

The WS1 did contain as the dip was 1.5464, and so the WR2 was visited (and then some) as the peak was 1.5773.

USD/CHF: MT, .8948 still looks like a reasonable target. The main level to look for his week is .9249. A strong break of that, and it could put .8948 on the radar. It will take a runaway freight train to break it on the first try, because my WS1 is .9267. If .9461 contains the upside, then it is still a matter of time when that will happen.

The dip was .9244, and then we had the sharp reversal, so .9249 did containContainment held to the upside as the peak was .9398.

EUR/CHF: It is not too often than at the beginning of a reversal after a lethargic market the polar 3 is on the radar, but this is one of those weeks. The WS3 is 1.2009, and it should be hit this week. The key level to watch for on the way there is 1.2129. That is the 2 on a 1-2-3 on the weekly. It will also amount to extreme stochastic divergence next to a very bearish cloud.

The overall movement for the CHF disappointed, so the dip was only 1.2163.

AUD/USD: If the outlooks are correct thus far, then the Aussie crosses are about to get crushed this week. For that not to happen, then this has to be a volatile week for this pair. Ill just give the view the way I see it on the charts. The bottom of the daily cloud is 1.0070 and the WR1 is 1.0066. That should contain any move north this week. There is still very strong momentum pointing south, and .9793 is key S. If that is broken, then we are safely in the DOWN and heading towards .9572 and even beyond that. Considering the WS2 is .9775, that scenario could prevail.

The week was not that volatile. I was just wrong, as the pair still has no interest in progressing southward. The pair started the week to the dip at .9883, and then reversed to the peak at 1.0219

USD/CAD: Even though LT speculation says we are headed to 1.1085, this pair does not seem to have any interest or urgency in getting there. It still appears this pair is going to finish what it started at the end of last week and thats its move north. Look for WR1 at 1.0441 to contain, or even the MR2 at 1.0481. Key levels to the up and down are 1.0470 and 1.0058. Either one of those levels taken out convincingly, then we have a strong move, which means either we are back in the LT move north, or back in the consolidation at sub-parity.

The peak was only 1.0413, and then it headed to the dip at 1.0180.

NZD/USD: Unlike its cousin, the AUD/USD, this pair has much more room to breath on top. Any move south needs to be contained by the WS1 at .7528, or like many of the USD pairs, the outlook becomes a little confusing. As long as that is the case, then it appears the WR2 at .7768 is clearly on the radar.

And unlike its cousin, I was right on the forecast as the dip was .7542 and it hit the radar as the peak was .7774

EUR/GBP: There is now little doubt this pair is headed to .8167, and the quicker it gets there, the better. If it arrives quickly, then it provides the means for an explosive reversal. There is still plenty of room and move for a downward thrust to happen this week. It is expected the WS2 at .8287 will be hit. I would treat that as a decision point for what will possibly follow afterward.

The pair reversed shortly before it got to the decision point as the dip was .8302

EUR/JPY: This pair is still getting strong pressure to continue south from the monthly and weekly, but there appears there is going to be some restraint this week. The WS1 at 100.66 and MS2, 100.64 area probably contains, as the pair prepares for a move that should take it back to at least the MS1 at 102.48, and even the WR2 at 103.05.

It was eventful week as the dip was 101.26, and the MS1 contained as the peak was 102.52

GBP/JPY: This pair should finish off what it ended last week and that is the completion of its move north. There is very strong R in the WR1 area at 121.36. Unlike its cousin, the EUR/JPY, there is greater potential to the downside as the WS2 at 120.13 could be hit, and could go even lower than that.

The WS1 at 120.54 ended up containing as the dip was 120.41, and then it took off to the peak at 122.75.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Weekly S&R's--122511

R3 r2 r1 s1 s2 s3
eur/usd 1.3262 1.3164 1.3105 1.2987 1.2928 1.2830
usd/jpy 78.59 78.34 78.19 77.89 77.74 77.49
gbp/usd 1.5895 1.5754 1.5669 1.5499 1.5414 1.5273
usd/chf 0.9519 0.9448 0.9406 0.9320 0.9278 0.9207
eur/chf 1.2299 1.2264 1.2242 1.2200 1.2178 1.2143
aud/usd 1.0476 1.0320 1.0226 1.0038 0.9944 0.9788
usd/cad 1.0437 1.0331 1.0267 1.0139 1.0075 0.9969
nzd/usd 0.7979 0.7871 0.7806 0.7676 0.7611 0.7503
eur/gbp 0.8481 0.8429 0.8398 0.8336 0.8305 0.8253
eur/jpy 103.11 102.53 102.19 101.49 101.15 100.57
gbp/jpy 123.94 122.92 122.30 121.06 120.44 119.42

 

[AMAN TANEJA]

Re: Ichimoku III--the tenken and kijun

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The most significant event on this chart shows why many traders use the ichimoku as a standalone.

Look to the west in the oval area. When the trend is fresh (This case--DOWN.) and the tenken and kijun have just dropped under the cloud, don't even think about going long. People talk about divergences. When you get the wick hitting the top of the cloud, and the TK combo just broke under it, "Hello!!!"
That is all you need to know to go short. The candle was still contained under the TK combo, which is further confirmation. Finally the TK was dipping, and the trend was fully ignited.

I haven't gotten into any cloud properties yet, but how many times have I talked about the cloud acting as equilibrium? When the candles drift farther than usual away from the cloud it becomes fresh, and in this case will act as R. Once the candle found its way over the TK combo, the cloud is going to act as R. So, at this point, a long could have been executed, but the TP would have been at the bottom of the cloud. Price action found its way into the cloud, but this is a time you want to disregard the fact it is above the TK and consider the equilibrium factor. You can see price action got real volatile after the entry.

As far as future action is concerned, notice how the candles are beating up on the fresh cloud. Eventually the cloud becomes vulnerable and the candles are going to have its way and find its way in. For the time being the tenken and kijun have straight lined near the bottom of the cloud, so it is expected for it to be strong R. One of 2 things will happen, price will continue dipping while the tenken and kijun follow close behind. Why is following close behind significant? It will enable the candle to cross easily back over the combo. It would act as support. The next try at the cloud should thrust the price through it. Once the TK combo catches up, then it will act as additional support near the top of the cloud and bully it out.
The other possible scenario is to see a very strong and volatile move from the current area, and price bridges the tenken and kijun, which would also put it inside the cloud. It is the least likely of the scenario. Both have leveled, which strengthens the R at this point.

As far as where price could be headed in the future, we would be assured it would be headed much higher if we see a break on the other side of the cloud, and in knowing the tenken and kijun will add the additional support. I'll get into additional cloud properties later, but this chart is showing a clear shot at 1.3400. The daily is showing initial strong R will be seen at the kijun at 1.3280. If we get a close on the other side of it, then the fresh cloud currently at 1.3697 will act as strong R.

The beautiful thing about the ichimoku is that it adds such a predictable ebb and flow. We have already seen it, to a degree by combining the different TF's, and we'll see it further when we start to combine the other elements with it. This whole thing gives meaning to the old proverb, "He looks like he is just floating along on a fluffy cloud."

hello sir,
trying to put these charts in to hard disk of my mind and u have explained it very well, so till now it is very clear to me.

one thing i want to know is, how u can say that particular script is clear shot at 1.3400???

 

[VJAY]

Dear Paul,
Wishing you& family a "HAPPY CHRISTMAS" and Advanced "HAPPY NEW YEAR".....

Same to TUCKER too

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Ichimoku III--the tenken and kijun

Aman, a close above 1.3280 not only puts it above the daily kijun but above the 4-hour cloud. There is virtually no resistance on the way to 1.3400. Count on it. It will go higher than that once it clears 1.3280. It is a struggle getting there.

hello sir,
trying to put these charts in to hard disk of my mind and u have explained it very well, so till now it is very clear to me.

one thing i want to know is, how u can say that particular script is clear shot at 1.3400???

 

[4xpipcounter]

Thank-you very much, VJAY.

LOL, it has not been too good for Tucker so far. We have not had any real snow fall that will stick, so we still can't go sledding.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and your family!

I got to get my e-mail caught up or I will be working on the Weekly Forecast into Christmas.

Dear Paul,
Wishing you& family a "HAPPY CHRISTMAS" and Advanced "HAPPY NEW YEAR".....

Same to TUCKER too