Some of my forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

Ichimoku II-- the tenken and kijun

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The settings I use on the ichimoku is always the default at 9,26,52, so when I refer to formulas, my settings will be your reference point.

Tenken formula: High + Low of last 9 candles / 2
Kijun formula: High + Low of last 26 candles / 2

The above formula shows why the tenken is the faster of the 2 indicators.

There is much that could be said about the tenken and kijun, so I'll probably stay on it for awhile. As always, I will show its actual properties and share some personal insights.

Notice the uptrend to the west of the chart and the downtrend to the east of the chart. It is showing a very strong uptrend and a very strong downtrend. I'm not into cliches as it is obvious one look at the charts with no indicators tells us which way the trend is headed.
The thing to notice is that once the candle cleared the tenken and kijun, it never hit the kijun. This is showing a very strong trend, as in most trends, the kijun will contain. A little later we will cover what happens when price ranges on the other side of the tenken but still stays on this side of the kijun.

At this point, let me also add how to set stops in a trend. Look at the kijun, count back 3 candles, and that is your stop. This way there is a defined way of trailing the stop as each candle evolves. Oh yeah, I should also mention it works! Therefore, current stop by using this daily chart would be 1.3239. (BTW, that is only one way of ascertaining a stop. It works, but there is nothing concrete that says it has to be done that way.

So far, this might be boring for many. But, like I said, I'll be on the tenken and kijun for awhile, so I'm sure it will get more interesting as we progress.

Also, I'm open to all other conversations. Don't anyone feel you are interrupting the flow by asking or commenting about whatever market, indicator, or other type of TA's you want to talk about. Nice thing about a forum is I can carry on 5 conversations at one time and not feel like the white jackets will be coming to get me.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Timepass, you might be right, but I doubt it. We are still talking about a move against the big trend. The only reason it has a chance to hit the WR3 is the spike that will start next week.

LOL, as per our conversation at Nifty50 (Or maybe it was here?), Santa is headed back north after the deliveries.

Maybe this week we will close higher than 4970.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Ichimoku III--the tenken and kijun

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The most significant event on this chart shows why many traders use the ichimoku as a standalone.

Look to the west in the oval area. When the trend is fresh (This case--DOWN.) and the tenken and kijun have just dropped under the cloud, don't even think about going long. People talk about divergences. When you get the wick hitting the top of the cloud, and the TK combo just broke under it, "Hello!!!"
That is all you need to know to go short. The candle was still contained under the TK combo, which is further confirmation. Finally the TK was dipping, and the trend was fully ignited.

I haven't gotten into any cloud properties yet, but how many times have I talked about the cloud acting as equilibrium? When the candles drift farther than usual away from the cloud it becomes fresh, and in this case will act as R. Once the candle found its way over the TK combo, the cloud is going to act as R. So, at this point, a long could have been executed, but the TP would have been at the bottom of the cloud. Price action found its way into the cloud, but this is a time you want to disregard the fact it is above the TK and consider the equilibrium factor. You can see price action got real volatile after the entry.

As far as future action is concerned, notice how the candles are beating up on the fresh cloud. Eventually the cloud becomes vulnerable and the candles are going to have its way and find its way in. For the time being the tenken and kijun have straight lined near the bottom of the cloud, so it is expected for it to be strong R. One of 2 things will happen, price will continue dipping while the tenken and kijun follow close behind. Why is following close behind significant? It will enable the candle to cross easily back over the combo. It would act as support. The next try at the cloud should thrust the price through it. Once the TK combo catches up, then it will act as additional support near the top of the cloud and bully it out.
The other possible scenario is to see a very strong and volatile move from the current area, and price bridges the tenken and kijun, which would also put it inside the cloud. It is the least likely of the scenario. Both have leveled, which strengthens the R at this point.

As far as where price could be headed in the future, we would be assured it would be headed much higher if we see a break on the other side of the cloud, and in knowing the tenken and kijun will add the additional support. I'll get into additional cloud properties later, but this chart is showing a clear shot at 1.3400. The daily is showing initial strong R will be seen at the kijun at 1.3280. If we get a close on the other side of it, then the fresh cloud currently at 1.3697 will act as strong R.

The beautiful thing about the ichimoku is that it adds such a predictable ebb and flow. We have already seen it, to a degree by combining the different TF's, and we'll see it further when we start to combine the other elements with it. This whole thing gives meaning to the old proverb, "He looks like he is just floating along on a fluffy cloud."

 

[4xpipcounter]

Ichimoku IV--tenken and kijun

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Here's another pair we have talked a lot about.
This shows how the tenken and kijun react to sideways markets. Within the strict context of the ichimoku, it says stay away until things clear up.

As we look to the west, we see the tenken and kijun bridged. From there it makes for a nice ST long opportunity to the bottom of the cloud. Remember the cloud is fresh. Price action was buried under it. After the cloud was hit, there was nothing but chaos as far as a tradeable opportunity.

The bounce off the cloud was predictable, but not really tradeable. The tenken was pointing north and the kijun leveled. That along suggests eastward movement ahead. The tenken wants to go north, the fresh cloud is in the way, and the kijun has leveled which suggests strong support. It eventually headed south, but it could not have been predicted the solid kijun was going to be broken. Even after the tenken crossover the kijun under the cloud, it still did not look good, because the kijun was still leveled. It suggested volatility and the kijun acting as a magnate.

Later, we got the break back into the cloud, but the kijun is still in a straight line.
Later, we had the volatile break back under the straight line kijun and the cloud, but now the tenken is point north.
Then, we had the break back over the cloud and tenken, but the kijun was still level. About the time is pointed north, the candle broke south, and under the tenken, which is not good for the beginning of a trend.
Finally, we got the break under the cloud with the tenken and kijun in perfect sync, but there was still one problem. That is one long candle. The only thing that could have been done at that time was enter at the opening of the next candle and using the kijun as a stop as described before. That means entry would be 1.2990, current price is 1.2841, and the stop is 1.3001. By next candle, it will be 1.2993.

BTW, these examples are used strictly by what we see on the charts. That move could have been anticipated, but for the benefit of easy learning, I'm trying to stay away from intangibles.

By now, I'm dying to hear some comments or questions. Even disagreements are fine with me. Just bring the evidence when you do disagree.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Ichimoku V--tenken and kijun

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I was getting ready to leave for the day (almost 1:30pm here) when this chart hit me in the face, and it is another pair we have focused a lot on.

This is also going to be more live. I will always post a sequence of charts on this, so if the rest are belated, then you know me taking off caused the gap.

The kijun has gone sideways in the cloud. The tenken is diverged in a big way from the kijun, which is another form of measuring equilibrium. Even though I have not made it to the components of the cloud, look how far from the cloud the candle has wondered. This scenario is suggesting a big collapse, ichimoku style.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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Someone sent me a PM about the possibility of the TL being broken for Nifty on the monthly. This depends on how you draw it. I don't like a TL with no angle so the bottom one is nil. LOL, okay until we get there.
The second TL is located on the chart, and we did get the typical break. It has already been corrected, and the move deeper has been made.
Just because all TL objectives have been made, it still does not mean it could not move lower. It only means the TL was broken with the typical candle, corrected, and a move deeper was made.
Monthly candles do not possess the identical attributes of the lower TF's. This is because it is a more even measurement, so the "typical" candles are not as easily definable.
BTW, that TL break was made at circa 5600. It had a lot of influence of my LT forecast at the time of the market heading to the 4600's.

 

[timepass]

What is a fresh cloud ?? The cloud is always in future by 26 sessions so by the time the candle reaches it, it is already a month old

 

[AMAN TANEJA]

Re: Ichimoku I

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The ichimoku cloud (Properly called Ichimoku Kinko Hyo) is unique inasmuch that it is 5 indicators in one. The indicators are unique unto themselves, and they possess a property unique unto themselves. IMO, when these 5 indicator form a confluence it is the most powerful confluence you can find
As we progress, we'll see that 5-in-1 confluence does not happen often, but there is always enough evidence the ichimoku will give for nice trade setups.

I will eventually break down each aspect or indicator within ichimoku and even cover the formulas with how they are derived. Many demonstrations will be in the rearview mirror, as I will only be showing how the indicator works, but I will try and capture a live trading opportunity as it presents itself.

thnx for the info sir, nd wt does confluence means???
i searched it on net, nd i think as u told dat itchi is mix of 5 indicators, so it means wen all 5 of them gives the same direction about a trade, dat is called confluence.
plz correct me if i am wrong

 

[4xpipcounter]

Timepass, slow down. I'm out of breath keeping up with you between threads--lol.

A fresh cloud is the test of equilibrium we talked about. When the candle has ranged from a farther than normal length from the cloud (Look at the 4-hour on the AUD/CHF.), it is due to reverse. The cloud will be solid support. This is because the candle had a long way to go to get back to it. It was a long time since the cloud was hit.
The candle is now out of breath, and the cloud is fresh. It's not a fair fight!!! Cloud wins.

BTW, in talking about equilibrium and ranging a long way from the cloud, this has nothing to do with the future status of it, but when I make it there, I will talk a lot about it.

What is a fresh cloud ?? The cloud is always in future by 26 sessions so by the time the candle reaches it, it is already a month old

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Ichimoku I

Aman, you are 100% right!

Let me add (Get to know me. You'll find it's hard for me to stop at 5 words--lol.) that any trade you enter should never be taken at a face value of one indication. A confluence in terms of the ichimoku could be the TK cross under or over the cloud with the candle on the trend's side of things. That could be considered a confluence.

With AUD/CHF the daily is agreeing with the 4-hour in terms of equilibrium. The weekly has hit the top of an extremely bearish cloud. These can be considered ichimoku confluences. Additional confluences I have in my repertoire is the MR1 is .9527 and the WR3 is .9525. I'd kick myself to the moon if I missed out on this one.
Yes, I went short on it.

What's nice concerning the ichimoku is that we have only begun. I haven't even mentioned the chinkou yet. Wait until you see it in action! Aslo, we until we delve deeper into the cloud.

thnx for the info sir, nd wt does confluence means???
i searched it on net, nd i think as u told dat itchi is mix of 5 indicators, so it means wen all 5 of them gives the same direction about a trade, dat is called confluence.
plz correct me if i am wrong