You could be right here. I'm not a practitioner of the Wolfe Waves. One of my friends who make use of WW, has suggested that it could be possible to draw the waves that way. Anyway, since I'm not an expert in that, no arguments. But If you're sayin it because of a lot of point of contacts in that pattern, then I believe that they're not touching...anyway, just posted the possibility....that's why mentioned as "possible Wolfe Wave"....
...anyway, thanks for your honest opinion...
...anyway, thanks for your honest opinion...
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hi all this is a good thread with a wide variety of opinions being put in. Let me put in my own view..... till friday i doubted this rally could cross 5873 which was my resistance zone If mkt doesnt close above that level on monday that could be the end of this up trend for now then market could go for a consolidation for next two days and then on thursday or friday the market will decide its direction from here. FIBANOCCI Time zones tells that the time has come for a significant change in trend. If 5943 is taken out on a closing basis by the market for two trading days then i think market will create a new life time high at 6570 on the contrary if that resistance is not taken out then we should see the 5170 levels on the down side. and i think these levels will come up within december series itself.....
Quote:
Originally Posted by megapixel View Post
Nifty has gone mad .....a complete breakout.
Looks like approaching 6000 at the year end to set benchmark....or big landslide is awaiting..
I'm not entering into position without a signal....
Yes... It is difficult to enter in the middle of the trend. However, traditionally market peaks around February +- 1 month.
DoubleTop or Triangle Top of 1986. Sensex Topped in February, rose again and made second Top in July.
BigBull top 1992. Made on 3rd April.
Megaphone Tops of 2004 made in January and 2006 from 7 April to 11 May
Rising Wedge Top 2008 made in January.
Diamond Top of 2011 January. This started forming since October 2010, top made in November 10 but actual fall from January 11. Also Feb 2012 Top
Originally Posted by megapixel View Post
Nifty has gone mad .....a complete breakout.
Looks like approaching 6000 at the year end to set benchmark....or big landslide is awaiting..
I'm not entering into position without a signal....
Yes... It is difficult to enter in the middle of the trend. However, traditionally market peaks around February +- 1 month.
DoubleTop or Triangle Top of 1986. Sensex Topped in February, rose again and made second Top in July.
BigBull top 1992. Made on 3rd April.
Megaphone Tops of 2004 made in January and 2006 from 7 April to 11 May
Rising Wedge Top 2008 made in January.
Diamond Top of 2011 January. This started forming since October 2010, top made in November 10 but actual fall from January 11. Also Feb 2012 Top
Nifty took support at 5548 and bounced by 330 points in last two weeks. Every reader of this thread now knows that this is the last leg or 5th wave of the current rally which started on 4th June from 4470. As per trend lines, this 5th wave can reach anywhere up to 6175 or above to touch the upper trend line, depending upon its speed. (Please refer to weekly chart in my previous post also.)
I am still learning Elliot Wave (I read Vivek Patil's Elliot wave analysis regularly and some of the ideas in this post come from there) so I shall not go much deeper in it to predict the perfect top. That does not help much in trading. However, we should be cautious and keep stricter stop loss when market nears the upper trend line. Break of Trend lines on weekly charts help to recognise intermediate trend reversals of the market and those on daily/intra-day charts help in trading.
What if I am a newbie and do not know Elliot or much about Technical analysis? I urge all the newbies to read this entire thread by SAINT
http://www.traderji.com/technical-analysis/6072-teach-man-fish.html
This one by TradewithHunter is also very useful
http://www.traderji.com/technical-analysis/30428-shs-315-strategy-how-use-if-effectively.html
Members will find that I have drawn a lot of trend-lines in the charts. One member had earlier posed a question why I am drawing so many trend lines. In my previous post, I have displayed 5-6 major tops. In all of them, Market had made some or other pattern which I was able to recognise at the time. However, I would have been able to recognise the trend reversal with the help of simple trend lines and made good money. There is no need to be expert in TA or to predict reversals.
As for the current rally, trend is up until the lower TL is broken. Members can observe that the 1st and 3rd rising waves consist of 5 smaller waves. I therefore presume that the 5th wave will also consist of 5 smaller waves and ongoing rally is 1st of the 5th wave. (Elliot wave experts can correct me.) Therefore, there are 4 more to go before market goes down. It is not possible to draw a trend line until the 1st wave concludes. Those who were not able to buy and participate in this rally can still make money by going long in the 2nd of 5th wave. However, they will have to observe intra-day charts to locate the suport and draw trend-lines since 2nd and 4th of 5th wave may last for only 2 to 4 days. I do not recommend shorting in these two waves.
How shall we recognise that the end of this rally is near? Look at the market tops in the charts in my previous post. Market becomes very violent at the end of the rally due to public participation It goes up-down frequently. I therefore expect the market to become violent and form some pattern at the end. That will tell us that the top is near and maintain strict stops. Thereafter a break of lower trend line will indicate reversal of trend.
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