How to trade Commodities - Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Natural Gas

[uttamkamlesh]

Today was MARKET STRUCTURE HIGH in NIFTY...
I am short.......

 

[uttamkamlesh]

Upper Protection in strategy : 5240; Profit when closing below 5240! max profit realization when NIfty close <= 5200: Is my understanding right?

No dear...this trade bets on at best expiring both contracts worthless...and keep the premium....Max Loss-[(5300-5200)-premium collected]....Max Profit : premium collected....limited profit limited loss....

 

[myamit]

Today was MARKET STRUCTURE HIGH in NIFTY...
I am short.......

Hello Uttam,

Could you please elaborate a little more on MSH? Particularly how to look for target & confirmation required if any.

Currently, there are quite a few signals that suggests short trade. For instance hanging man followed by gap down open & close below open. Almost all tech indicators are in overbought zone & RSI has exited overbought zone today.

Please comment.

 

[uttamkamlesh]

Hello Uttam,

Could you please elaborate a little more on MSH? Particularly how to look for target & confirmation required if any.

Currently, there are quite a few signals that suggests short trade. For instance hanging man followed by gap down open & close below open. Almost all tech indicators are in overbought zone & RSI has exited overbought zone today.

Please comment.

MSH: When an overbought market makes Higher close, then again a higher close, then makes a lower close than the previous two...it's MSH....

we enter at this close

with Stop Loss at the highest High of the three bars.

 

[myamit]

MSH: When an overbought market makes Higher close, then again a higher close, then makes a lower close than the previous two...it's MSH....

we enter at this close

with Stop Loss at the highest High of the three bars.

Thank you for info. I actually wanted to know expected target. Do you rely on fibo retracement or moving average for this.

Also any thought on trailing stop (may be high of last two candles).

 

[last-air-bender]

Crude Long taken, not my own research but as some senior had taken longs in crude oil so....

 

[uttamkamlesh]

Thank you for info. I actually wanted to know expected target. Do you rely on fibo retracement or moving average for this.

Also any thought on trailing stop (may be high of last two candles).

MSH / MSL trades are against the trend so target we can not know but next swing H/L or fib retracement, new MSL/MSH, etc would do...

In this trade my Stop Loss is at 5256 in futures level. Let's see tomorrow how market opens and deals with 200D SMA and swing high 5217.

Regarding trailing stop, it's subjective 1-candle back or 2-candle back...

 

[ptk]

MSH / MSL trades are against the trend so target we can not know but next swing H/L or fib retracement, new MSL/MSH, etc would do...

In this trade my Stop Loss is at 5256 in futures level. Let's see tomorrow how market opens and deals with 200D SMA and swing high 5217.

Regarding trailing stop, it's subjective 1-candle back or 2-candle back...

Dear Kamlesh,

Thanks for explaining the MSH/MSL strategy.

Which indicator do you use to decide if market is over bought or not (is it stocastics above 80?)

Apart from this, I would like to take this opportunity to thank you for all the knowledge that you have shared. I have completely read the blog and also the pdf of UMS that you have shared and I read and try to understand the pdf everyday.

I have noticed that in the last couple of months you have posted less number of charts related to UMS(and WW). I am just a little worried if you are not spotting enough trades or whether you are not posting each chart that you trade(which is absolutely fine).

If I can humbly ask you to clarify if you are still able to spot around 5 trades a week based on UMS/WW and its just that you are not posting them because you have already shared it all(in fact more than what we could imagine).

Thanks again.

Regards,
ptk

 

[uttamkamlesh]

MSH / MSL trades are against the trend so target we can not know but next swing H/L or fib retracement, new MSL/MSH, etc would do...

In this trade my Stop Loss is at 5256 in futures level. Let's see tomorrow how market opens and deals with 200D SMA and swing high 5217.

Regarding trailing stop, it's subjective 1-candle back or 2-candle back...

Stop Loss hit today.......NIFTY makes 55 Day High....all turtle traders would be LONG by now.....crosses 200D SMA......tomorrow NIFTY would meet BRL from last 6300...

Money flow Index is shouting.....funds are coming.....

 

[uttamkamlesh]

Dear Kamlesh,

Thanks for explaining the MSH/MSL strategy.

Which indicator do you use to decide if market is over bought or not (is it stocastics above 80?)

Apart from this, I would like to take this opportunity to thank you for all the knowledge that you have shared. I have completely read the blog and also the pdf of UMS that you have shared and I read and try to understand the pdf everyday.

I have noticed that in the last couple of months you have posted less number of charts related to UMS(and WW). I am just a little worried if you are not spotting enough trades or whether you are not posting each chart that you trade(which is absolutely fine).

If I can humbly ask you to clarify if you are still able to spot around 5 trades a week based on UMS/WW and its just that you are not posting them because you have already shared it all(in fact more than what we could imagine).

Thanks again.

Regards,
ptk

Hi PTK...nice to know that you are going through my stuff...

1. About MSH/MSL, wait for a while i would share my research when i am satisfied with it.

Market is overbought or oversold can be determined by Money Flow Index at best. Market moves with Money.

2. Regarding posting of charts on UMS and WW, i am now a days busy with automated/mechanical systems, so don't find time. Only two markets Crude Oil and NIFTY i am following now-a-days....You can check out UMB all around in Copper, Gold, Silver, all major currencies.

The most beautiful thing about UMS/UMB is that rules are still the same since the beginning.. nothing new added at all.......Let me tell you UMS is my best method, i am most comfortable with it, more than WW.

3. 5-trades a week is easy to find, but i have day job so cannot track market during the day time...........Keep your trade Time Frame higher first Daily then 4 hr then 1 hr then 30 min....

WW psychology occurs at peak or bottom of the market (tired) but UMS/UMB occur when markets are trending. So i have masala for most of the time.

One more thing they say "ghar ki murgi dal barabar...." . I don't see more than 2-3 guys practicing any of my methods...

ANyways best wishes for you!...