General Trading Chat

[siddhant4u]

Yeah, Stock markets can get addicted to FIIs can unload and take stock markets down 30%

So no FII in market??

Compare our forex reserves to turkey. No comparison

Between may 2008 - 2019, USD went up 72% which is roughly 7% interest added on top of 3%

Remember when Japan provided India 'zero interest' loan for Super Fast trains? it's effectively 6-7% as India will have to repay japan in USD.

 

[cinderblock]

Because it went up 7% in 2018 2019, it will also go up in the future?

Btw, india can always hedge the currency. The USD-rupee swap rate is about 4% - i.e cost of hedging the currency.

Like I said, it's no big deal

 

[timepass]

Guys

I have always maintained that human intelligence can't be replaced by artificial intelligence. AI is just a tool to help human intelligence make informed decisions...

What you are saying - are the statistical factors and if you know the rules of statistics - understand how Gaussian function works, you could make intelligent guesses on this data.

I am not a trader - but my intentions are question if there is doubts votes can be stolen and so is market can also be modulated. But if more people make informed decisions - probably democratic processes could be built.

Now I tried it for NIFTY just to test. Now I give you an example of what my algorithm is doing.
So for Indigo - its now at 1451....my algorithm points out these predictions:
Aggressive Forecast: 1455.78 - 1463.54
Conservative Forecast: 1429.94
Stable Market: 1521

Now in today's market scenario - it has a tendency to swing between 1455.78 - 1463.54....Now if it reaches the peak there (and you can use Graph theory to understand the peak) - then it might fall down to 1429.94
So this might happen over the days time - so I guess you can see the choppiness in the data. Also when it crosses 1455.78 - you have to become little attentive as what is happening in the market as a whole.
This is why my KNN runs on real time - tracking movements in the market.
Now it has an overall tendency to go to 1521 - but it might happen in weeks time or months time...
So each stock has a different behavior for which you have to use your intelligence..

My technical basis is just the regression equation based on the distance of the stock to global fluctuations and fluctuations in Indian markets....It understand when government pumps in money etc and help you take informed decision...

And Academic interests are for society as a whole - what's wrong if I share this data over here and get feedback. Now you could call it marketing or academic exercise - but that's free market economics and democracy. You have a right to your opinion after I expressed my interests.

What kind of fluctuations....distance of stock to indices u mean....which indices....
As for indigo u said u are predicting reaching 1510-20 levels....did it also predict fall to 1300 odd levels...
We all here are trying our best to learn to trade markets.....based on our individual potential, capital employed and risk taking capacity....
If you bring an algorithm that can provide an edge to market participants, most welcome but when you put statements like following indices will go to this level, following stock will go to this level without an time horizon or stop loss, what does one call it...
U are right I don't understand artificial intelligence algorithm but am open to learn new techniques...

Right, some time horizon and stoploss should be provided with any trading calls. At least mention whether it is intraday or swing or positional.

On the other hand, having provided the range, it does provide some kind of stoploss and target, if not the time horizon.

Maybe with time this AI technique will improve to provide more tradable calls.

 

[timepass]

John, can you please provide some analysis of NCC ? It is in a serious downtrend but looks like a bottom is forming.

 

[Arindam Bhattacharjee]

Guys

The stock market is rather tricky and driven by human psychology of fear, anxiety and greed. What triggers a human being at a particular time cannot be predicted.

So my model does not give stop losses and others - it just looks at the tendency of the stock - if the current state of equilibrium persists. From there - it gives you three states where it could go - an aggressive state , if market moves aggressively, a conservative state and stable market state....
You have to understand which state the market is in....

For example, my model is telling not to sell INDIGO right now...as stocks are going up and up. So what happened in with the Suzlon news coming out - the market was falling. In this case, to raise the markets - some stocks are inflated and some are deflated. It did not predict the 1300 levels - but did predict it going down....What happened was an SEC violation - but that's a different story. But you still could have made money in intra-day or could have held it with e-margins that I play on...

KNN means K-nearest Neighbours....so the algorithm finds the nearest distances to stock indices around the world. For example, an IOC stock will be closer to international oil prices, a steal stock would be closer to steal prices.

And when market was falling - did I not say that it would reach 11691...look where is it now when most people were expecting it to come down.

What kind of fluctuations....distance of stock to indices u mean....which indices....
As for indigo u said u are predicting reaching 1510-20 levels....did it also predict fall to 1300 odd levels...
We all here are trying our best to learn to trade markets.....based on our individual potential, capital employed and risk taking capacity....
If you bring an algorithm that can provide an edge to market participants, most welcome but when you put statements like following indices will go to this level, following stock will go to this level without an time horizon or stop loss, what does one call it...
U are right I don't understand artificial intelligence algorithm but am open to learn new techniques...

 

[timepass]

Guys

The stock market is rather tricky and driven by human psychology of fear, anxiety and greed. What triggers a human being at a particular time cannot be predicted.

So my model does not give stop losses and others - it just looks at the tendency of the stock - if the current state of equilibrium persists. From there - it gives you three states where it could go - an aggressive state , if market moves aggressively, a conservative state and stable market state....
You have to understand which state the market is in....

For example, my model is telling not to sell INDIGO right now...as stocks are going up and up. So what happened in with the Suzlon news coming out - the market was falling. In this case, to raise the markets - some stocks are inflated and some are deflated. It did not predict the 1300 levels - but did predict it going down....What happened was an SEC violation - but that's a different story. But you still could have made money in intra-day or could have held it with e-margins that I play on...

KNN means K-nearest Neighbours....so the algorithm finds the nearest distances to stock indices around the world. For example, an IOC stock will be closer to international oil prices, a steal stock would be closer to steal prices.

And when market was falling - did I not say that it would reach 11691...look where is it now when most people were expecting it to come down.

Right, right.

The problem is that the traders are used to having a stoploss/ target etc. So, I suppose using AI for trading will need a convergence of the AI prediction and the trader's mindset.

 

[siddhant4u]

for entertainment side of AI and stock investment watch "The Bank"

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0241223/

 

[iwillwin]

Guys

The stock market is rather tricky and driven by human psychology of fear, anxiety and greed. What triggers a human being at a particular time cannot be predicted.

So my model does not give stop losses and others - it just looks at the tendency of the stock - if the current state of equilibrium persists. From there - it gives you three states where it could go - an aggressive state , if market moves aggressively, a conservative state and stable market state....
You have to understand which state the market is in....

For example, my model is telling not to sell INDIGO right now...as stocks are going up and up. So what happened in with the Suzlon news coming out - the market was falling. In this case, to raise the markets - some stocks are inflated and some are deflated. It did not predict the 1300 levels - but did predict it going down....What happened was an SEC violation - but that's a different story. But you still could have made money in intra-day or could have held it with e-margins that I play on...

KNN means K-nearest Neighbours....so the algorithm finds the nearest distances to stock indices around the world. For example, an IOC stock will be closer to international oil prices, a steal stock would be closer to steal prices.

And when market was falling - did I not say that it would reach 11691...look where is it now when most people were expecting it to come down.

Most people....I am not bothered what most people think...market shows us all where it wants to go....market is not obliged to our thoughts or analysis.... please don't take it as negative but state of market - stable, aggressive, conservative are qualitative way of assessment....how do you quantify it....now that stocks are being talked a lot...where do u see nifty bank stocks headed in a month timeframe....

 

[Pradeep Narayan]

Hello Friends. I am back!

 

[marimuthu13]

Hello Friends. I am back!

Welcome back to TJ