General Trading Chat

[timepass]

FCB is nothing but a bond issued in a different currency other than the rupee. Lets say USD.
For Ex. A person can buy bonds for 1000 usd. When he sells it or upon maturity he will get his money back in USD. So here he will not be at the mercy of exchange rate.

But then, only the foreigners can buy it, right ? Not for us.

 

[Riskyman]

But then, only the foreigners can buy it, right ? Not for us.

Yes. This money is being raised from overseas market.
India has been raising money from overseas markets but the Bonds were rupee denominated. You may have heard the term "Masala Bonds". For ex. if someone bought a bond when Rupee was at 72 and now he exits it, He would get 68 on it leading to a loss.

With FCB, risk is with the borrower i.e Indian Govt.

Edit: You can buy these bonds id you are NRI

 

[timepass]

Yes. This money is being raised from overseas market.
India has been raising money from overseas markets but the Bonds were rupee denominated. You may have heard the term "Masala Bonds". For ex. if someone bought a bond when Rupee was at 72 and now he exits it, He would get 68 on it leading to a loss.

With FCB, risk is with the borrower i.e Indian Govt.

Edit: You can buy these bonds id you are NRI

We buy US government bonds, at low interest rates, then we sell dollar bonds, presumably at a higher interest rate. Sounds like a losing deal for India.

 

[Riskyman]

We buy US government bonds, at low interest rates, then we sell dollar bonds, presumably at a higher interest rate. Sounds like a losing deal for India.

But the US govt is not buying.
India buying US bonds has many advantages as world trade happens in USD. So dollar bonds are always helpful.

 

[Arindam Bhattacharjee]

Guys

As I showed that Indigo before the market opened, it was a stock to have...
Using the model ideally today - if not driven by emotions,
one could have bought the stocks at 1425 and exited at 1464....he/she would have made good profits for the day...
I had predicted low at 1429 and high at 1463 before the market started....

Now since the market has passed 12pm mark, these are the stocks that show promise.

So you can see the Machine learning happening on run time- and the effects of news is reflected in the data...
Now another prediction, IOC has a tendency to go up and might reach 151.42 from the point of 146.
So this is how the system builds on as the markets build - taking in the noise...
I have also added MaxPane into the app for better decision - but I think NIFTY will stick to 11691 as I had predicted before.

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Guys

I have always maintained that human intelligence can't be replaced by artificial intelligence. AI is just a tool to help human intelligence make informed decisions...

What you are saying - are the statistical factors and if you know the rules of statistics - understand how Gaussian function works, you could make intelligent guesses on this data.

I am not a trader - but my intentions are question if there is doubts votes can be stolen and so is market can also be modulated. But if more people make informed decisions - probably democratic processes could be built.

Now I tried it for NIFTY just to test. Now I give you an example of what my algorithm is doing.
So for Indigo - its now at 1451....my algorithm points out these predictions:
Aggressive Forecast: 1455.78 - 1463.54
Conservative Forecast: 1429.94
Stable Market: 1521

Now in today's market scenario - it has a tendency to swing between 1455.78 - 1463.54....Now if it reaches the peak there (and you can use Graph theory to understand the peak) - then it might fall down to 1429.94
So this might happen over the days time - so I guess you can see the choppiness in the data. Also when it crosses 1455.78 - you have to become little attentive as what is happening in the market as a whole.
This is why my KNN runs on real time - tracking movements in the market.
Now it has an overall tendency to go to 1521 - but it might happen in weeks time or months time...
So each stock has a different behavior for which you have to use your intelligence..

My technical basis is just the regression equation based on the distance of the stock to global fluctuations and fluctuations in Indian markets....It understand when government pumps in money etc and help you take informed decision...

And Academic interests are for society as a whole - what's wrong if I share this data over here and get feedback. Now you could call it marketing or academic exercise - but that's free market economics and democracy. You have a right to your opinion after I expressed my interests.

 

[timepass]

Looks like nifty is preparing to go in the negative now.

 

[cinderblock]

We buy US government bonds, at low interest rates, then we sell dollar bonds, presumably at a higher interest rate. Sounds like a losing deal for India.

Instead of paying 6-7% in rupee bonds, we pay 3% in USD denominated bonds.

Of course we take the currency risk. But it's only $10 bn, so I suppose no big deal

 

[siddhant4u]

Instead of paying 6-7% in rupee bonds, we pay 3% in USD denominated bonds.

Of course we take the currency risk. But it's only $10 bn, so I suppose no big deal

It starts with 10 billion $, soon govt will be addicted to USD bonds and then there is no stopping.

Govt instead should utilise forex reserve. Plus promoting Rupee bond and allowing free trade of rupee might attract more markets. As of now India restricts movement of Rs outside India and that's why you don't see Rs trading on travel desk's at international airport whereas every other currency gets traded turkish lira or thai bhat

 

[cinderblock]

Yeah, Stock markets can get addicted to FIIs can unload and take stock markets down 30%

So no FII in market??

Compare our forex reserves to turkey. No comparison

 

[iwillwin]

My technical basis is just the regression equation based on the distance of the stock to global fluctuations and fluctuations in Indian markets....It understand when government pumps in money etc and help you take informed decision...

What kind of fluctuations....distance of stock to indices u mean....which indices....
As for indigo u said u are predicting reaching 1510-20 levels....did it also predict fall to 1300 odd levels...
We all here are trying our best to learn to trade markets.....based on our individual potential, capital employed and risk taking capacity....
If you bring an algorithm that can provide an edge to market participants, most welcome but when you put statements like following indices will go to this level, following stock will go to this level without an time horizon or stop loss, what does one call it...
U are right I don't understand artificial intelligence algorithm but am open to learn new techniques...