Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY spot

[mastermind007]

@persistent

I re-checked notes on my attempts to compute the elliot waves manually and found this excel based calculator made by me where I had attempted to predict where a particular wave would end. All of the constants seen on excel are from a book that I have.

Attached is the spreadsheet image

and these are the chart of waves that it computed

Looking at the NIFTY high low values present in spreadsheet, I presume that this is from time before I found the software tools that did the computations.

In all Elliot wave computations that I have seen thus far and from what I can recall, most important point is in determination of the Previous High and Lows. If you get that right, rest of the calculations fall in place.

I have no idea how any software determines this.

 

[jagankris]

@persistent

I re-checked notes on my attempts to compute the elliot waves

Dear MasterMind ji,

Whats your personal trust/Opinion/level of satisfaction about Elliot waves theory ?

Whats the level of success - Nifty following the Elliot wave theory ?

TIA.

 

[mastermind007]

Dear MasterMind ji,

Whats your personal trust/Opinion/level of satisfaction about Elliot waves theory ?

Whats the level of success - Nifty following the Elliot wave theory ?

TIA.

Elliot waves do 60% to 70% of the job. Predicted levels rarely come easy.

 

[SaravananKS]

On the contrary, forum rules are forcing you to do your own analysis and thereby learn. Ready-made target providers are all over the market place and moneycontrol, facebook etc is also full of 'em

What OP @persistenttrader is doing is revealing the counts that he has made, which I think are manually done. I have been using a software tool to do the Elliot Wave counting but would love to figure out how to do manually with reasonable efficiency. IMHO, learning to manually count will also improve my understanding of what the existing tool is showing.

Having said that, at the moment, following are the tools in market that do a reasonably good Job

Advanced GET: I am told GET in its name is acronym for Gann Elliot Trader. It is quite expensive software. More recent versions work only if you are connected to the internet and have subscribed to a data package and the data subscription is quite expensive as well.

Motive Wave : It is web based software with predominant focus on American market but it does use Google as a source for Indian exchanges. UI is nice but intimidating.
What I liked a lot in this was that, it used to plot same symbol in many time frames at once. License fee to use it is lot more reasonable.

There are at least 20-30 different Amibroker AFLs that deal with Elliot Wave counting and plotting but none seem to be doing adequate job

I agree that own manual analysis would be great advantage. One can learn EW by seeing others counts also.

Elliot wave is a forecasting theory. so target area can be obtained from its rules

Look my neo wave counts in nifty

I am expecting an Neutral Triangle which finished at 7944.85
to confirm this nifty should cross 8468 before coming Wednesday (2nd Stage confirmation)
if this happens as per Neo wave rule it must reach minimum 8578 and maximum
9005. (As per Neo wave Rule the post thrust must be between minimum 75% and maximum 125% of largest wave of a neutral triangle )
if 8329 breached before crossing 8468 then we may assume nifty is forming some other pattern like diametric.

based on this one can trade conclusion one can hold their long position with stop loss of 8328.if nifty failed to cross 8468 before Wednesday he can close long and go short with Stop loss of 8468

one can discuss and correct if he finds any thing wrong in counts or rules as per neowave

Many softwares like ADVGET also giving price targets with out disclosing the logic behind how it calculates the target

if an Analyst gives any target then he should explain the logic by this way it can be useful for all members who want to learn elliot wave.

I don't know how it violates forums rules ?
if I put only counts then what is the use to other members?


it is just my view Moderators can delete this post if they consider as I am violates their rule

 

[persistenttrader]

6/28/2015 12:35:44 PM

Firstly, thanks to jagankris, mastermind007for their questions and answers.

If EW success rate is say 65% (between 60-70% mentioned by mastermind007) or say EW provides context (probable direction of movement) of the market which is correct 65% times it is still a very useful tool.

How? Combining EW with other technical analysis tools can improve the predictability. e.g. Lets refer to the 2 counts in my earlier post that are valid per EW and see what risk:reward we are getting.

Entry: The 6/12 low at 7940 could have been end of wave-b or end of wave-C. In both the cases, the setup called for a long trade.

Stop loss: Stop could have been at low of the day (7940) or 7926 (unfilled gap on 10/24/2014) or at 7820 (2nd unfilled gap on 10/17/2014 – I wouldn’t have used this stop though)

Target: Minimum 160 points (i.e. 8100 calculated as length of wave-a + extension of wave-b beyond start of wave-a).

Additional technical topping/confirmation:
On Weekly charts, MACD was providing bullish divergence suggesting long entry. Say, long could have been initiated at 8250 (high of day on 6/19) with stop at (stop provided by the same technical tool that is providing confirmation on EW count) 8130. The magnitude of bullish divergence on weekly suggested at least 300 points movement, so target was about 8195 (low of day on 6/19) +300 = 8495.

Thus, an additional independent technical analysis result will act as a confirmation to EW. In this case, entry suggested by EW was long (in both counts even of they were completely contradictory to each other). Entry suggested by the other technical analysis tool was also long.

Can experienced traders pls comment on the above?

@SaravananKS
Well, there could a question that all said above, what next? Any predictions?

This is where forum rules kick in. If I say, today I want to go long with a stop of X and target of Y, this is not allowed (opinion of price target). I had actually wanted to say on 6/20 that I want to go long. But the post in which I had written it was rejected by traderji.

With all the due respect to the forum mods/admins and the rules themselves, I better keep quiet on what next. I will just explain my logic behind the levels that have happened in the past and not in future.

I know it's very easy to provide the update on a thing that has happened in the past and it's very difficult to provide an update on what's going to happen
based on the current situation. But within the rules of the forum, this is what i can do...

Thanks & regards

 

[prabhsingh]

I agree that own manual analysis would be great advantage. One can learn EW by seeing others counts also.

Elliot wave is a forecasting theory. so target area can be obtained from its rules

Look my neo wave counts in nifty

I am expecting an Neutral Triangle which finished at 7944.85
to confirm this nifty should cross 8468 before coming Wednesday (2nd Stage confirmation)
if this happens as per Neo wave rule it must reach minimum 8578 and maximum
9005. (As per Neo wave Rule the post thrust must be between minimum 75% and maximum 125% of largest wave of a neutral triangle )
if 8329 breached before crossing 8468 then we may assume nifty is forming some other pattern like diametric.

based on this one can trade conclusion one can hold their long position with stop loss of 8328.if nifty failed to cross 8468 before Wednesday he can close long and go short with Stop loss of 8468

one can discuss and correct if he finds any thing wrong in counts or rules as per neowave

Many softwares like ADVGET also giving price targets with out disclosing the logic behind how it calculates the target

if an Analyst gives any target then he should explain the logic by this way it can be useful for all members who want to learn elliot wave.

I don't know how it violates forums rules ?
if I put only counts then what is the use to other members?


it is just my view Moderators can delete this post if they consider as I am violates their rule

Neo Wave is subset of elliot wave and meant for making fools to people.Orginal thing is just Elliot Wave and its success ratio is 95% if used properly.Hence dont fall under pray of people who teaches neo wave as there is nothing known as new wave.

 

[SaravananKS]

Neo Wave is subset of elliot wave and meant for making fools to people.Orginal thing is just Elliot Wave and its success ratio is 95% if used properly.Hence dont fall under pray of people who teaches neo wave as there is nothing known as new wave.

I am practicing Neo wave for last 3 years. from last six month only I am taking position based on that. When Started to read Mastering elliot wave by Glenn Neely it was not easy journey. Many nights it helped me to sleep as sleeping tablet:lol:. But I did not loose my passion.to day I can say atleast I can understand to logic's behind analysis of legend Glen neely.

if Elliot Wave's success ratio is over 95% then there should lot Elliotion in forbes wealth wizards list. in initial day when I wanted to learn elliot wave I read some books and watched many charts and software like advanced get.
The problem what I noticed in Ordhodax Elliot was frequent changes in wave structure. that is the reason we can see different counts from different people. But NEoWave is a self confirmatory and self corrective theory. if two people practice in same counter (like nifty) if they follow rules strictly both will get similar wave structure. I have analysed many analysis in in nifty by various practitioner I noticed most of time they have similar counts.

even though my own counts differ from my mentor counts( he did not thought me neo wave But learned lot from his analysis) at one stage we would conclude same structure in higher degree.

For me Orthodax elliot is subset of neowave since neowave has many rules(mostly time related) then regular Elliot wave.

This is Just my sense. I am not marketing agent of glenn neely

 

[persistenttrader]

@saravananKS - try Elliott wave principle - key to market behavior by Bob pretcher. Its available free on their website and is a good book for sure.

Additionally, the authors argue that the wave principle is more of a mass-psychology tool than only a market analysis tool. It is ramified by the fact that at times more than one wave counts are valid at the same time.

 

[persistenttrader]

7/3/2015 12:36:21 AM

As of EOD 7/2, the alternate count is on its way towards confirmation. It’s a nice 1-2-‘3’s in the making’ mode. See below. Wave 4 expected termination is about 4 of the 3 of the 3 (marked as 8413 in the chart). This is ramified by the fact that 8400 seems a decent support vide the option chain too!

Daily chart as of 7/2 EOD:

Option chain as of 7/2 EOD:

Thanks for reading!

 

[test123]

anyone sees will down fifth wave to begin ? lol

and when u do auto analysis's it shows u complete opposite picture..

so don;t know what to believe.

elliot wave theory is .... when u want it to work it won;t.....

Unless un till it breaks previouse low above chrt is valid and i really hope it does break evil smile ..

can auto anaylsis be wrong wonders