Doubt Relief !!

[karthikmarar]

Dear Trading Learner

It is nice to see you studying the charts. You are correct there is good support in the 55-56 region.

If you notice it is currently trying to break the resistance at 65. The first attempt was not successful. it is making a second attempt. We can see the volume coming in today. It has to cross the 64-65 resistance first. On the upper side it will face resistance around 68-70 region. It has to cross 75 for making a good up trend.

On the brighter side the upward momentum seems to gathering momentum as seen by the rising DI+ line of the Directional momentum Indicator. The ADX line has to start rising to confirm strength. Let us hope volume will come in strongly in the next few sessions.

Just to share some ideas .. Always buy at supports and sell at resistance. The best time to buy would have been after it had taken out the resistance at 64-65.

Do keep studing the charts.. slowly you will start seeing more things in them ..

Enclosing my chart... just to compare notes. Great going my friend..

warm regards

Karthik

 

[Agilent]

Dear Agilent

You are welcome to express your views. Being a newcomer to the forum should not hold you from expressing your views. Sharing thoughts, views, knowledge makes this forum unique.
Even I would like to share a few thoughts with you.

First regarding terse/concise comments. We can always just say Buy or Sell or Hold. If you had noticed in this forum we always try to backup our comments with reason. It not only substantiates the analysis/comment but also provides an opportunity for others to understand and learn. Without the reason it would amount to providing TIPS, which we abhor in this forum. So concise/terse/brief comments are seldom possible.

Secondly regarding the Fundamental inputs. Most queries raised in this forum are for short to medium term where the effect of fundamental inputs is not very significant. In the short to medium term TA helps us much better as it is the reflection of the current greed and fear situation of the market. That is why the concentration on TA is more. I am not ruling the effect of fundamentals fully. Of-course when we talk about long term that the Fundamentals assume much more significance. We will definitely try to provide fundamental inputs as far as possible.
By the way, Amit had always given the fundamental inputs wherever required. We can debate this for long but if I do that I wont be concise, isnt it?

You must have noticed that Traderji has opened a new sub forum just for discussing individual stocks. Here we should encourage members to post their views both fundamental and technical on individual stocks.

Warm regards

Karthik

Thanks Karthik,
Since I did not get any response to my queries on the other thread seeking inputs on -
- Mysore cements : how the recent hike in Cement prices will benefit MCL , if at all
- Mangalam Timber : has the turnaround started floundering ?

Maybe you/other members in the know can throw some light
Rgds

 

[karthikmarar]

Thanks Karthik,
Since I did not get any response to my queries on the other thread seeking inputs on -
- Mysore cements : how the recent hike in Cement prices will benefit MCL , if at all
- Mangalam Timber : has the turnaround started floundering ?

Maybe you/other members in the know can throw some light
Rgds

Agilent

May be one of the response you did not get any response for your queries for Mangalam Timber is that few would be tracking BIFR companies. A prudent investment policy would be to keep away from loss making and companies under BIFR. Even I keep away from such stocks. After all it is our hard earned money. I had to do some research on this.

Mangalam Timber has been under BIFR for almost seven years. However last year the company came out of the red. Even the company announced that it would de-register from BIFR. The company is taking on a large plantation activity in order to reduce cost.

In June the earlier proposal of BIFR to reduce the equity was set aside. Then the same time Kesoram Industries bought about 9.8 Lakh shares from the orissa Industrial promotion corp. All these saw the stock value move up. Even thought he first quarter results were quite unimpressive, made a paltry profit of 5 lakhs. The second quarter was much better the profit increased to 95 lakhs. But the half yearly result was poor at 1.0 crore compared to the same period in the previous year which was at 1.28 crore.. The EPS also dropped from 0.7 to 0.55. Net sales has also dropped from 28.8 crores to 26.2 crores.

So there is a decrease in the profit and sales. This in no way means the turn around is Floundering. The company is still making profits. The plantation activities undertaken would take time to become fruitful.

Going by the charts, one should keep away from this one now.

I will get back to you on Mangalam cements..

regards

Karthik

 

[dheerajmehta]

Hi Karthik,
is there any way of applying SL on online trading portals like ICICI direct /India Bulls ..if yes how do we put a stop loss(as in practically)?

Regards,
DM

 

[game4trade]

Hi Kartik,

Can you please post your comments on S Kumar Nationwide? Is it a good stock to enter at this stage in textile segment?

Regards,
Ashish

 

[karthikmarar]

Hello Prakash, Joshi

Here is my take on Hexaware Technologies

Hexaware is a fundamentally good company and is ranked as the 12th largest IT service exporter in India. It has many fortune 500 companies in its client list.

The share price basically crashed when the annual out look was revised in July. The estimate of revenue for the year ending December 31, 2005 was reduced $153 million from previously issued revenue guidance of $170 million. Based on the revised revenue guidance, the expected profit estimate was in the range of $18 - 19 million. By august the price hit a low of 95. Since then it has been moving sideways in a range of 100 to 115.

The last quarter result was very good. The Company posted a profit after tax of Rs 220.586 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2005 as compared to Rs 65.677 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2004. Total Income has increased from Rs 646.978 million in Q3-04 to Rs 996.824 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2005.

Recently the Annual Net Profit guidance for FY '05 has been raised to $ 19.5 million from $18 - 19 million announced earlier, while maintaining the revenue outlook at $ 153 million.

Overall it is a very good company. But has not found the fancy of the market players. The stock has been languishing in the region of 100-115.
On studying the chart we can notice an interesting aspect. The ADX line has been lying low well below both the DI+ and DI- line for quite some time. The ADX values have been below 10 for the quite sometime. That would mean that there has been consolidation going on and the bulls and bears have been fighting it out, which is evident from the +DI and -DI lines. All these would indicate that the stage is being set for a breakout. The bulls and bears have been battling it out and one of them would eventually win. The victory is often results in a major move. One such move was in Arvind mills which I has explained in a earlier post of mine. I feel that stage is set for Hexaware for major move. Normally the breakout is indicated by a sudden rise of the ADX line by 3- 4 points. Whichever line on top would be the winner. So it is a wait and watch situation. I strongly feel that considering the good results the breakout will be bullish.

This has a strong support at 99. On the upper side the first obstacle is at 106 then 110. Today the +DI is above DI. My favorite Indicator TRIX is also turning. Rsi is also rising. So we wait for a bullish breakout.

Sorry for making it so elaborate My friend Agilent would obviously be upset.

So in a nutshell for Hexaware we can anticipate a breakout. It could be in either direction. But all indicators couples with Fundamental give a much better chance for a Bullish breakout. Put a strict stoploss at 95 for the down side.

Chart enclosed if anybody is interested. Friends with contrary opinion please do post your views.

Views on Geometric and Dlink Later

regards

karthik

 

[karthikmarar]

Re: Please advice on Shasun Chemicals

Dear Kartik,
Iam very new to the share market/trading.
Can you please give some advice on SHASUN CHEMICALS?
I read some article about this company and it was very promising.
I took position @ 78.5.
Please throw some light on this share.
Hope this will be useful to other members also.
Luv,
Jd

Hi JD

Shasun is primarily into the manufacture of active pharmaceutical ingredients and its product portfolio includes ibuprofen, and ranitidine and nizatidine. The company is the largest producer of ibuprofen in the world and one of the leading producers of the ranitidine in the country. It supplies about 15% of the ibuprofen requirement of USA.
The last quarter results are slightly better compared to the same period the previous year. The net profit was 6.19 cr. Up 8% compared to the same period in the previous year.
Currently the stock is in a bearish phase with the 3 MA moving below the 13 and 39 MA. There is also lack of any trend. It has been in a bearish phase from September. You may have to wait long for this one to give good returns. As long as it keeps above 76 it is good as it is the support level. Below 76 would be 69. Further down would be 61. On the upper side resistance would be 84, 91 etc. Please do work with stoploss..

regards

Karthik

 

[srisara]

Karthik,

can you comment on Matrix Labs? Its been in sideways movement for long, finding the 200 level as very strong resistance level.

Satya

 

[vizzie]

Hi Karthik !!
Writin 2 u for the first time after u took over the mantle frm Amitda..
Ur handling a lot of queries.. Gud work...
Karthik, I have NEPC @ 14.. CMP 17.90
what would u suggest?
hold or sell?

cheers
vizzie

 

[karthikmarar]

Hi Karthik !!
Writin 2 u for the first time after u took over the mantle frm Amitda..
Ur handling a lot of queries.. Gud work...
Karthik, I have NEPC @ 14.. CMP 17.90
what would u suggest?
hold or sell?

cheers
vizzie

Hi Vizzie

Thanks for the kind words.

The chart for NEPC shows that there is still some upside left. Best thing may be hold it with strict trailing stoploss. say start with 16.5(7%) or 17(4%) and trail it as the stock goes up.

regards

karthik