Beat this one..!!

[VaibhavPRO]

Hello all..

I challenge everyone here to beat this report with the same consistency..
With God's grace I have been able to develop a fully mechanical system for BANK NIFTY futures which is averaging around 900 points in the last 6 months.. I also thank TJ for helping me develop this system as this comes as a result of continuous hardwork for long periods of time.. Extensive backtesting and hit and trials, hardwork and lots of money being plugged into developing this system.. Anyways more development is being done and I expect it to get developed even more providing more points and even greater consistency...

This thread is meant to post all the calls from the system..

I take to call my critics to stay away from posting in the thread.. I have seen many a threads on TJ being stopped just bcoz of criticism calling out loud.. I respect the views of all seniors, mods and specially of the young novice minds who tend to comment on the system's calls.. I will be posting the calls on realtime basis and charts on EOD.. I am also posting the backtests results from AMI.. Those working with AMI will be in a better position to understand it.. :clapping:

Hi Ankit

i back tested my system on your time frame(12mins) and your instrument(BNF). My system beats yours by far.

Now lets draw comparison

1) Your test report is without brokerage, mine has .03%brokerage on round trip.
2) I have used same time period of jan12 to june12
3) Your report uses 4 lots mine uses 2 lots.
4) My strike rate is double than yours
5) My risk reward is double than yours
6) My system has half the max draw down.
7) Net profit% is 5 times greater than yours.

Conclusion: My system beats yours hands down. So i won the challenge . Do i get any prize :rofl:

Trade List :
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsOQaxc0GL5VdGtBM3BtS3ZXXy04SXBQcFNBYWRGMmc

Backtest Report

Image 1

Image 2

 

[jallanankit]

Ya, on comparing ur system to mine, ur system seems to be a gr8 one.. Kudos for ur system..
R u actually trading it or u have an even better system??

 

[VaibhavPRO]

Ya, on comparing ur system to mine, ur system seems to be a gr8 one.. Kudos for ur system..
R u actually trading it or u have an even better system??

Yes i am trading it on 5 min tf on NF and BNF.

 

[jallanankit]

Yes i am trading it on 5 min tf on NF and BNF.

mind sharing the backtests for those as well??

 

[jallanankit]

There are no infalliable rules in technical analysis. You need to only to switch So what's the point I am trying to make.? Have an objective attitude while trading. It will help.

i would say even a simple system developed and followed diligently will work if it has well designed rules, including stop loss. Here it does not much matter if you choose 7, 15, or 21 day moving average, what setting you tweak on bollinger bands, stochastics, MACD, ADX, etc. What matters is a well defined risk reward ratio, money management rules, and a trader's mindset.

Thanks a lot Reggie for a detailed write-up.. My experience on it is not like u guys.. Thanks for highlighting this.. I believed in the last one year, that a well back-tested system over a large period of time should fetch good returns.. I remembered this all the time I designed the system. RR, Strike Rate etc were all checked before starting this thread. Now, the system has proved good in the last 6 mnths report enclosed.. With this in mind, I am starting to trade the system this month onwards.. Now forgetting to wat I did and getting back to the cons of backtesting, I would like to get an answer from u and others also as to what can be further done to get ASSURED returns.. As just having a BAck-tested system is not enough.. So pls elaborate the things, i need to be equipped with.. With time, I will try to get all of them in place..sooner or later..

as per Wikipedia statement, you are right! but i don't think Wikipedia say TA never fails. Problem is that for R&D you have to look beyond words definitions, b/c those theory written on anywhere is of no use until we understand it properly with all written/not written conditions.

one word is very dangerous you used, 'should'. from where you got this, tell me when anybody start punching a sandbag, it hurts; but after sometime it doesn't, why? as person same, bag same it should?!. if something has worked in the past, there is no guarantee to work in the future as well. if all conditions/parameters match/same/constant then there is high probability only. in market we can't include all outer parameter in a system, so we can't be sure whether they match or not, that's why we always use SL.

last thing, if using somebody else indicator or formula then try to understand how it derived. once get it, then test it on traders psychology basis also. if by chance your system based on psychology, you derive/conclude formula yourself then test it alone without any other conditions and filters, check its lagging/how dynamic it is, EOD bias of input data, real market execution, results in different market etc before putting real money. otherwise one can always try their luck.:thumb:

Thanks vikrit..!! I used the wikipedia example to just show what i used while planning and designing the system.. As I have asked above, pls share more insight as to what profitable trades require..

In the last part of ur post, u have written to understand the code.. There is no prob with this step in my case...as I have developed it on my own and I have seen it live also.. Regarding money management rules, I will say that considering the BACK_TEST report again, I can handle the biggest drawdown in my account, so i believe I have evn surpassed that test.. Wat next..??

 

[gunsho]

Now, the system has proved good in the last 6 mnths report enclosed.. With this in mind, I am starting to trade the system this month onwards.. Now forgetting to wat I did and getting back to the cons of backtesting, I would like to get an answer from u and others also as to what can be further done to get ASSURED returns..

IMHO, back testing done on this system itself doesn't seems enough. It is better to do for more timeframe (2 - 3 years or more than that).

Choose some basic systems based on MA and try it in different TF. One such has given ~600 points in NF for the last 6 months. ~1300 in last 1 year. and ~1400 in last 2 years . So even 1 year backtesting is not good enough to say, I will get ASSURED returns for the next 1 year. Any system will have tough times. Good risk management will be our only friend, so that we will live through the tough times to see the good returns.

I follow swing trading, and NF is killing people in the last few months. BNF same method, is overcoming NF's losses for me. In general, in the last 6 months BNF has shown very good behaviour and attracted many people. You can see so many tip providers coming up with, 1000 points per month in BNF etc in the last few months As traders, we should not get excited by a short term behavior of a script, like these tip providers.

6 months looks like a very short time to conclude on any system/script. The drawdowns you have seen in the last 6 months need not be the biggest drawdowns at all.. Repeatedly you are going to hear the same about risk management from most of the people.

 

[rh6996]

A query about system testers : (I am not well versed with Softwares like Amibroker or Metastock. I have MS but all I use it for is applying an Expert on a chart and either trading it or analysisng it bar by bar.)

Suppose I wish to analyse how would a strategy perform where we go long above 39 SMA and go short below 39 SMA.. seems quiet simple and seems would be easy to analyse! Now I have additional conditions : Buy above the high of the candle closing above 3SMA with a 5 point filter..... and do not trade on signals generated till 9:30 AM... can this also be done?

Suppose the above strategy also needs that the position is closed evry day at "close" and reentry afrsh next day!! Is this also possible to analyse!!

Thanks!!

 

[Reggie]

Hi Ankit,

In my experience a trading strategy is only one part of being a good trader, other is trading psychology (understanding your mindset and the market) and money management rules.

We can go further into more components that include discipline, being objective, doing your homework diligently, following the rules, ability to embrace risk when there is an edge, and cutting losses with well defined level of stop loss.

These are ofcourse general guidelines which everybody knows but may not follow, hence the reason for trading losses.

Trading is a lonely and a difficult journey, but once you overcome the initial hurdles, and still find yourself on the way guided by your experience and following your own wisdom and internal roadmap (by this time you will stop looking for guru's) you will make it.

Will write later being more specifc of what I have learnt, and you may then see if it is of any help to you.

Thanks a lot Reggie for a detailed write-up.. My experience on it is not like u guys.. Thanks for highlighting this.. I believed in the last one year, that a well back-tested system over a large period of time should fetch good returns.. I remembered this all the time I designed the system. RR, Strike Rate etc were all checked before starting this thread. Now, the system has proved good in the last 6 mnths report enclosed.. With this in mind, I am starting to trade the system this month onwards.. Now forgetting to wat I did and getting back to the cons of backtesting, I would like to get an answer from u and others also as to what can be further done to get ASSURED returns.. As just having a BAck-tested system is not enough.. So pls elaborate the things, i need to be equipped with.. With time, I will try to get all of them in place..sooner or later..



Thanks vikrit..!! I used the wikipedia example to just show what i used while planning and designing the system.. As I have asked above, pls share more insight as to what profitable trades require..

In the last part of ur post, u have written to understand the code.. There is no prob with this step in my case...as I have developed it on my own and I have seen it live also.. Regarding money management rules, I will say that considering the BACK_TEST report again, I can handle the biggest drawdown in my account, so i believe I have evn surpassed that test.. Wat next..??

 

[jallanankit]

long confirmed at 10588

 

[sumosanammain]

Summary of last few trades if possible?