Trading Challenge : My journey from 1.5Lakh to 6Lakh in 5months

SwagatN

Well-Known Member
Date 7 june 2018

1st trade was a SHORT on HNDALCO, It was a counter trend reversal setup, as higher timeframe was turning weak after a gap up and previous day's conitnuation. The trade did not work, I scracthed,



Net Position



==============================

Today I was so frustrated after teh 1st loss, that i completely lost the enthusiasm to continue trading for rest of the day. Conitnuous loosing trades are getting the better of me. I have been on a loosing streak since last week, and going like this I dont see myself going anywhere in this project..

Slowly I am loosing confidence on my system as well.. Something needs to be done before its too late.
 

pannet1

Well-Known Member
Date 7 june 2018

1st trade was a SHORT on HNDALCO, It was a counter trend reversal setup, as higher timeframe was turning weak after a gap up and previous day's conitnuation. The trade did not work, I scracthed,



Net Position



==============================

Today I was so frustrated after teh 1st loss, that i completely lost the enthusiasm to continue trading for rest of the day. Conitnuous loosing trades are getting the better of me. I have been on a loosing streak since last week, and going like this I dont see myself going anywhere in this project..

Slowly I am loosing confidence on my system as well.. Something needs to be done before its too late.
same pinch.

i think we are on cross roads from now on.
 

VJAY

Well-Known Member
Dear swagat,
I seen most of time you jump into trade before PA ....give some time and wait for clear signal to enter trade....you might miss some trades ....but it wjll avoid many unnecessary trades.....IMO you allready know whats the most probable trades as per your method.....my views
 

SwagatN

Well-Known Member
Dear swagat,
I seen most of time you jump into trade before PA ....give some time and wait for clear signal to enter trade....you might miss some trades ....but it wjll avoid many unnecessary trades.....IMO you allready know whats the most probable trades as per your method.....my views
As i have been analyzing my live trades, and also profitable trades from history, I have seen the edge of my system lies in catching the reversal. The core ideology is to catch the higher timeframe weakness and reversal, and trade that move in lower timeframe. Now that weakness on HTF forms and reverses in 2/3 HTF bars, But in lower timeframe it is nearly 2 hours of trading session. And in LTF price gives a setup, nullifies it, a lots of range bound moves, and finally comes the big moves. And so far I have been getting caught in those noise and staying out from the big moves.

Here in this project also for last 3 weeks, in many of my trades my 1st trade get scratched, and the next trade on same stock moves quite good which I miss. So here my doubting is not on the system to be real, but if this system suits me and my mindset at this point of time. !!!

From last 3 weeks, my behaviour pattern is to slow down after a series of loss. BUt now I feel to trade this system one needs to keep taking smaller loss and be in the game in order to get that one big move. So I need to evaluate whether I should continue this approach for the rest of the project or do I need to switch to a trend following system..
 

Satya.

Well-Known Member
Today I was so frustrated after teh 1st loss, that i completely lost the enthusiasm to continue trading for rest of the day. Conitnuous loosing trades are getting the better of me. I have been on a loosing streak since last week, and going like this I dont see myself going anywhere in this project..

Slowly I am loosing confidence on my system as well.. Something needs to be done before its too late.
tk a brek 2mo n re-strt frm Mon
 

rjshem

Well-Known Member
As i have been analyzing my live trades, and also profitable trades from history, I have seen the edge of my system lies in catching the reversal. The core ideology is to catch the higher timeframe weakness and reversal, and trade that move in lower timeframe. Now that weakness on HTF forms and reverses in 2/3 HTF bars, But in lower timeframe it is nearly 2 hours of trading session. And in LTF price gives a setup, nullifies it, a lots of range bound moves, and finally comes the big moves. And so far I have been getting caught in those noise and staying out from the big moves.

Here in this project also for last 3 weeks, in many of my trades my 1st trade get scratched, and the next trade on same stock moves quite good which I miss. So here my doubting is not on the system to be real, but if this system suits me and my mindset at this point of time. !!!

From last 3 weeks, my behaviour pattern is to slow down after a series of loss. BUt now I feel to trade this system one needs to keep taking smaller loss and be in the game in order to get that one big move. So I need to evaluate whether I should continue this approach for the rest of the project or do I need to switch to a trend following system..
Ur biggest mistake is not keeping ur risk constant .if u start taking adds u have to do it consistently over a longer period of time and not stop it after a few loses.focus on keeping ur risk constant and reduce ur mistakes all other things r fine.if u dont keep risk constant ull always be playing catchup and very difficult to grow exponentially like u have planned .ur not able to keep ur risk constant due to fear of hitting ur stop drawdown percentage u have to let go of this fear .
 

Tuna

Listen and act, don't ask it, it doesn't oblige
Aise I had said earlier, ignore all my post (specially the Judgemental or the Mental one). But jab sare Muni Rishi (with due respect to all, take it on a lighter note) gyan de rahen to main bhi doon ke ? (but freedom is all yours to ignore, once more).

1. Stop posting everyday here your live trades. If you really wants (frankly none cares though), you can post your contract note on monthly basis with your top 5 best and worst 5 trades of the months - keep the learning going for others. Trading itself a pressure game. Posting daily in a forum, you are just creating extra pressure on yourself - which is entirely avoidable. You are already showing the symptom of lack of confidence on your system, thats the sign.

2. It is your money and your time. After spending hours in front of system if you are losing money, it is not the money alone you are losing.

3. Scratching trade prematurely - unacceptance of risk: This is the biggest flaw most of us suffered including me, till 2016. 50% of trades on Nifty used to get scratched. The issue is, when we place a SL, we consider that as a failure point of the setup. Now we size our trade and position of our SL, fully knowing how much we will lose in case of a failed trade. But knowing & accepting (prior to losing) is a different ball game. If we can accpet that if my trade goes wrong, I will lose this much money - AND I AM FINE WITTH IT, there is nothing else in the trade between winning or losing it - no scratching. If the setup has an edge (to be statistically checked and proven) - there is no point in scratching. Let the wave play. At the most what will happen, it will hit SL. But we will not miss the fake trades (my niche), which bend towards SL, freak traders out of game and then continue journey towards the target. Accpeting risk is a must for consistency.

4. You are trading in manual mode, which is ok, very much profitable if done properly. But the SL can not same in terms of points or % for each instruments. Each script has a different volatility - And only way to fit that into same trading system , is to find the best timeframe for it. Few will works in 3 mins, few in 15 and few in hours, few will simply not (try any TF it will make you bankrupt on long run). you dont have to take my word as is, just get your logic coded in MT4 or AmiB and backtest on each of this stocks for last 5 years data, the result will in front of you. Find the right stock and right TF, the setup itself may be fine

Here a snapshot from my system (not for sell or share) on Jub Food (Period Dec 2017 till Date) - I have not traded it, as I dont trade stock future, but this should suffice to drive home the point of volatility, and adjustment of TF for same system on variying performance:

Hourly Candle:



15 Mins Candle



5 mins Candle



Now (that same system does not work on different stock with same Profit Factor, regardless of TF)


on Axis Bank (same system and same start and end date)

Hourly Candle:



15 Mins Candle



5 mins Candle



4. Finally, Ho sake to change the subject line of the thread - it is a big turn off. Sorry, ignore. Nahi fir se kahna hey - ye 6 lakhs kyun 60 lakh banao, but why the focus is on the money without even knowing your win-rate or Risk Reward Ratio or DD of your system? 1 losing streak and you started doubting your system? I had 9 in a row. Few of us would have more, but sticking to system. But - that confidence come from history of the system - how did it perform in past. I guess you need that data. So instead of wasting precious time and money, test it with past data , if it does not work, find a setup which works.


Possible argument (I had it as well for , I guess 13 years, reason, I was making profit): "Manual trading is better - I have a fixed entry exit rule". Really?? Just look at your last 20 trades and see how many time "I felt" thing is coming. If an fixed exit rule is there, why is it not followed? So only way to get rid of it, to delegate it to system. There is nothing in this world which is repeatable, based on fixed and CLEAR rules (as good trading supposed to be)- but can not be coded. Your trading style - whatever MA you are using, can be coded as well. Dont have to ask anyone for help, do it yourself. Plenty of material available over the net. Unless you know if you have an edge one a perticular stock in a perticular TF - I will rather sell nebu paani on the street instead of playing with money.

Another possible argument: Something worked in past does not gurantee the future. Right. But is there way to test future (bhavishyat, not FO) data for a system? On what fundamental our current system is standing on - if it was not something I could trade profitably in last 5 years? Now dont ask me why I am sticking to 5 years (there is a reason for it). But statistical check is must.

5. Does the system has an edge? Forget that. what is an edge? considering you are taking 10000 trade with a system with a fixed entry -exit rule, will you come profitable at the end? That is the edge. It varies based on system setup. The only way to check this is backtesting, nothing else.

But end of day - It is your money & your time = your wish !

Kafi lamba kah diya, saw you struggling. Everyone does. Been there. My wording might be harsh, but intent is to help. Your journaling is good. Risk controlling is very good. Just test the edge of the system once and find the right girl friend to date with - I meant right stock to trade with.

Finally a parting gift (might help):

 
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