Trading Challenge II : 300% in 5 months

SwagatN

Well-Known Member
#1
Objective : Generate a profit of 300% in 20 weeks (5 months)
Start Date : 16th August 2018
End Date : 31st December 2018
Starting Capital : 3L
Target Capital : 12L
Trading Style : Intraday (1min) with Positional (EOD)
Trading Instrument : TATASTEEL, RELIANCE, BANKNIFTY current month future for intraday and Entire NIFTY 200 stocks in cash for EOD positional.
Trading Strategy and Methods :
For intraday I will trade 1m timeframe trend in the foot steps of 5m trend.
For positional I will trade Daily trend in the foot steps of Weekly trend.
Methods used are simple price action, candle pattern and volume analysis. No indicators.
Intraday Risk = 1% of trading capital
Business Risk = 20% of trading capital. i.e. at anytime my net equity is down by 20% from its peak I will consider this challenge as a failure.

================================

This is my 2nd attempt on the challenge of making a 300% return with in 5 months (20 weeks). The first attempt started on 15th of May 2018 and was supposed to run till 31st September. My trading capital was 1.5L, and final capital target was 6L. But I accepted my defeat on 2nd August 2018 with my final equity standing at a loss of 8% i.e. 12K. That was hell of a journey and I did enjoy it a lot. At a low point I accepted my failure, off-course I was done, but I am not finished.

This time I have raised my capital to 3L and thus the target is 12L. I will trade on derivative of the above mentioned scrip. More on my lessons and experiences from the 1st challenge in the subsequent post.

>>> NEVER GIVE UP <<<
 

UberMachine

Well-Known Member
#3
Objective : Generate a profit of 300% in 20 weeks (5 months)
Start Date : 16th August 2018
End Date : 31st December 2018
Starting Capital : 3L
Target Capital : 12L
Trading Style : Intraday (1min) with Positional (EOD)
Trading Instrument : TATASTEEL, RELIANCE, BANKNIFTY current month future for intraday and Entire NIFTY 200 stocks in cash for EOD positional.
Trading Strategy and Methods :
For intraday I will trade 1m timeframe trend in the foot steps of 5m trend.
For positional I will trade Daily trend in the foot steps of Weekly trend.
Methods used are simple price action, candle pattern and volume analysis. No indicators.
Intraday Risk = 1% of trading capital
Business Risk = 20% of trading capital. i.e. at anytime my net equity is down by 20% from its peak I will consider this challenge as a failure.

================================

This is my 2nd attempt on the challenge of making a 300% return with in 5 months (20 weeks). The first attempt started on 15th of May 2018 and was supposed to run till 31st September. My trading capital was 1.5L, and final capital target was 6L. But I accepted my defeat on 2nd August 2018 with my final equity standing at a loss of 8% i.e. 12K. That was hell of a journey and I did enjoy it a lot. At a low point I accepted my failure, off-course I was done, but I am not finished.

This time I have raised my capital to 3L and thus the target is 12L. I will trade on derivative of the above mentioned scrip. More on my lessons and experiences from the 1st challenge in the subsequent post.

>>> NEVER GIVE UP <<<
Sorry @SwagatN if I sound disappointing but your's an extremely tall ask.

Could you post a few more things? (if you wish)
  1. What is your leverage/ trading capital on a daily basis?
  2. What are you results in backtests?
  3. How you are going to track performance on a day-by-day basis?
  4. 1% intraday risk on a single stock or in total (I assume at 1% you would close your position if your loss is 3000 if your leverage is 1)
  5. You say entire NIFTY 200 in cash. So, are you going to hold them?
  6. What's your performance last time? It is 8% negative, I suppose including charges and you just lost 12000. Given the time frame, its a splendid job
  7. You told you would trade on simple price action. Could you further define it well such as 2 consecutive green candles accompanied by a 10% volume (not to disclose the exact strategy). This would help in finding out where exactly things messed up
You could still make 300% if you are an experienced trader and knew very well I won't make 300% the next time around.
 

TradeOptions

Well-Known Member
#5
Brother please do not take my post negatively. I really appreciate your honest endeavor and the way you post the real trades and open up your inner thought process etc. But trading is a totally different type of a game. You really need to have an EDGE in your trading system / method, in order to have any chance of generating profits. Even if a guy is extremely dedicated and hard working and he makes sincere effort to trade, but does not have a proper method, he will not be able to make money.

And why are you making it an Ego Challenge type of stuff by putting a headline of "300% in 5 months" ? From where do you get these figures of 300 and 5 months ? Why do you want it to be so ? Why cant you just trade your method with discipline and let the profits take care of themselves - it could be 30%, 300 % or 3000 % why make it fixed ? You should remain open and flexible and should not get into the trap of revenge trading.

I do not want to demotivate you in any manner, but I personally do not find this approach to be right. Please give it a second thought. I wish you the very best in your trading career.

Take care

PS: I would suggest that when your mood is fine, you open a separate thread where you analyze your system in an OBJECTIVE manner and take help from seniors, regarding how your system could be improved. Why it gives these many loss trades, how they can be reduced, how the profit potential could be increased, what portions of this method could be automated, so that you do not have to do all the analysis in your head, how it can be applied on multiple instruments, how to select the instruments, which suits this kind of trading method etc. etc.
 

SwagatN

Well-Known Member
#6
Complete Analysis of 1st Challenge

Background : Call me crazy or a fool, I never had a proven trading strategy before I started this challenge. To others it very well sounded like my target was to earn a fixed amount in the given time to prove somebody something. (This was very much clear in everyone's comment that I received in Traderji and also in my personal circle), But to me right from the beginning my goal was pretty clear. i.e. To be that person who can make 300% in 5 months. So my intention was not on the capital gain but squiring all those attributed that a successful trade holds. (Now why 300% ? Well that was just a number, After seeing the comments I knew I have kept my target big enough)

Prior to this challenge, I was very care free in my approach all the time, and there was a lot of Knowledge-Action Gap. i,e I knew all the time what I should be doing, but I always failed to put it in practice. sometimes its just the care free attitude and sometimes its laziness or whatever, the result was same, I never got consistent in anything, be it following a system, or maintaining a journal, or log file etc etc. I always gave up and took break when a loosing streak started, So all the time I was living in this denial of accepting the loss. So this was my 1st challenge to face myself during a loosing streak and turning it around. Not to run away.. Along with this there were many other challenges to be disciplined in maintaining a journal, log file and being consistent in my strategy also.. So I just made up my mind its now or never, I can not see myself being known as a person who is not committed to anything.. Something had to be done. So I started that challenge to connect all the loose ends.



Stage A : I started the journey. At this point I still had not developed a concrete strategy. I just had the points in my mind about how I am going to evaluate the trend, where my trade areas are, how I am going to enter etc. I have done only hindsight backtesting, Again no proper documentation of backtesting data. So I just got started with this mental strategy. And here my strategy was more about catching tops and bottoms, i.e. finding the weakness and strength in the market and thus trading the market turns.

I was not properly applying the concept of trend and as a result I had many scratched trades resulting in whipsaws in equity curve. Because sometimes market turned sharply and other times it spent quite some hours till all the supply/demand were absorbed..

Stage B and Stage C : This stage shows my scratched trades and some win trades in between. The loosing trades are failed attempt to catch the reversal and win trades are where my mental strategy worked.

Stage C to Stage D - By this time I had come to know the fault in my approach, and I slowly started to apply the trend. But since the introduction of a concept happened just suddenly with no prior hand on practice, there was a lot of mistakes in real time, also I was getting affected by the psychological road blocks of missing out a move and thus jumping ahead early without confirmation of HTF price action.. All this was finally represented in the slow decline in my equity. A continuous 22 loosing trades with just 3 small wining trades in between..

This was the time where I would have ended the project before, but I was committed not to get back to my comfort zone of quitting ever again.. I have to continue..and I did.. Now there was no shame of accepting that I am making loss, I had already accepted.. Coz I can fake it before the world but I can not fake it to myself.. The good thing I did was through out my previous loosing streak I have never stopped my journal and trade log file..

Stage D to Stage E - I reduced my trade risk to only 100rs. Took one day break. Wrote down my startegy of how I am going to evaluate the trend, my trade areas and setups etc. I practised for 1 day ( i know that was not enough). and then resumed trading. Slowly I started seeing improvement in trading outcome. An uptrend started in my equity.. gradually I increased my trade risk from 100 to 300, then 500 and like this to my full trade risk of 1% i.e. 1500, and I almost recovered most of the lost capital..I was happy with myself, for the first time I knew I had done something right, I did not hide, I did not lie, and I was proud for me..

Stage E to Stage F and G - But at the same time I had gone over confident,. I knew my lacking point was I had not practised enough on my startegy, so during the uptrend of D to E, everyday I was testing 2 days of historical charts (one before market and one after) to improve my skill on my trading system. But after the satge E, I stopped. I did not stop intentionally, it got stopped in one weekend, and by the time next week started I had become cold foot, I was casual again thinking "I have made profit, I have got good hand already, So I can manage if I dont practice it for few days".. ( A BIG MISTAKE)

As a result my decision started getting wrong, and I again started making loss. And this time there was a new psychological demon to tackle. "FEAR". I knew the pain and hardship I went through when I recovered my lost capital. I just did not want to go there again.. So this time when I was loosing and my equity curve was declining I was living in a new form of denial..i.,e. not to accept loss the way one should..I started fearing loss, and started expecting every trade to be profitable.

Stage G to H = I was almost close to the previous bottom.. took another day break.. I said to myself, that I can do it again.. becuase I have done it earlier, I know what it takes to make profit.. I again lowered my risk, started daily practice, controlled my emotion. and as a result there was 4 consecutive profit, I knew I am back on track..

Stage H to I = May be I was possessed with some GHOST or something, but today I understand whatever happened, happened for good.
I changed my trading plan of trading equity intraday to trading NIFTY and BANKFNITY future...suddenly my trade risk was higher than what I was comfortable psychologically. In just few loosing trades, I made a new equity bottom.. and then it hit the sense back to my mind.. I was like what have I done !!! So finally my equity curve was showing a strong downtrend with a new bottom.

=========================

I understood it was all m,y fault I risked more that I can afford to loose. So I had to switch back to equity intraday, I thought I can be fine with loosing around 300/500 per trade, But then 2 more loosing trades and I found myself I am even uncomfortable there as well. Thats where I realized its not the amount of risk, I am just not able to accept loss at all, Every profitable trader knows that loss is a part of this game, but be it a new bottom, or a continuous downtrend where I lost nearly 8% of equity, I was not able to accept more loosing trades..

I had to fix this psychological issue as I came to know, as long it is there I will always fail to pull the trigger, I will miss good trades, I will do mistake and I can not be that person who can make 300% in 5 months.

So I felt it was time to stop, not to quit (I am still here with the same challenge). I felt it was time to heal. So I accepted my defeat on the 1st challenge. But all through that journey I came face to face with many of my hidden demons from whom I had always ran away and found my comfort zone in quitting.. But not this time. I said myself I will be back one day on the same challenge being a better person to handle my emotions.. All the loose ends has to be connected this time..

.>>> NEVER GIVE UP <<<
 

SwagatN

Well-Known Member
#7
Weakness during my 1st Challenge
  • No properly written trading strategy, It was more mental.
  • No proper simulation and testing to see it in person how the strategy behaved in different conditions
  • No proper planning on risk management, it all went on the flow based upon the profit/loss, Whenever I felt, I reduced, and when I felt I increased.
  • Frequent change in trading strategy - Lot of inclusions/exclusions of point in trading strategy in the middle.
  • Change of trading instruments in the middle.
Strength during my 1st Challenge
  • Proper journal maintained.
  • Proper trade log maintained.
  • I was honest to myself through out that 2 and half months.
Situation NOW (For 2nd attempt of the trading challenge)
  • Clearly written trading strategy with all the market structures, allowed trade setups.
  • Backtesting is going on, will finish it by 15th Aug before I start the live trading, I will post the result here. (No hindsight testing this time)
  • Already planned for a improved trade journal and log file. Will work on them over this weekend.
Apart from these I am yet to finalise on the risk management part on how and where to reduce or increase the risk. Also I am thinking of ideas for starting a journal for emotional/psychological checkpoints.
 

TradeOptions

Well-Known Member
#8
brother, your attitude and sincerity is really motivational. After reading your reply, I really believe, you have it in you, what it takes to be the trader, you want to be. Sooner or later, you are bound to be there.

Earlier I was thinking that you are chasing a specific profit amount, but now I am clear that I misunderstood you. Your focus is not on that money figure, but on the skills and disciple and other such qualities that should be in a professional trader.

I will follow your thread closely and will participate with the positive inputs that I could make in any manner.

Wish you the very best,
Best Regards
 

TradeOptions

Well-Known Member
#9
Morning Motivation :)
This song has motivated a lot of guys to achieve what they really want -

https://soundcloud.com/mihael-crvenkovski%2Fmind-the-gap-quan-never-gonna
Never gonna stop, till I get what I want
Never gonna stop, till I get what I need
Falling down, knocked out, on my knees, I break down
But I'm holding on, holding on, holding on
Pouring out my heart, digging out my soul
As I'm holding on, holding on, holding on

Never gonna stop, till I get what I want
Never gonna stop, till I get what I need
Never gonna stop, till I get what I want
Never gonna stop, till I get what I need

You know it's no pain no gain, go hard to the end
What's the use of playing the game
If you ain't aiming to win
My feet planted in the concrete, we in this to win
Quitters never finish, and finishers only win
Ain't no time for no compromise, grind to top
Coming from the bottom where the sunshine stops
When dreams get diminished, and the daytime is dark
And the only light we see, is what's believed in the heart
Against all odds, oh lord God might have mentioned
Ambitions and wishes, bent on crushing your competition

Never gonna stop, till I get what I want
Never gonna stop, till I get what I need
Never gonna stop, till I get what I want
Never gonna stop, till I get what I need

Never gonna stop, till I get what I want
Never gonna stop, till I get what I need
Never gonna stop, till I get what I want
Never gonna stop, till I get what I need

Never gonna stop, till I get what I want
Never gonna stop, till I get what I need
Never gonna stop, never gonna stop, never gonna stop
Regards
PS: sorry for being off topic for this particular post. Just wanted to share this song with the traderji community.
 

SwagatN

Well-Known Member
#10
very much possible...ho jaayega

just extend end date to 31 Jan because there are many holidays in between
Yeah, there are nearly 10 holidays which reduces the equivalent of 2 weeks from the time.. During my last challenge there were only 5 holdiays.. But I think its okay to have it.. Let see..
 

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