Tracking PUT CALL Open Interest

[cnbondre]

A bit detailed read about Option Analysis , courtsey : Kamlesh Langote. Word File attached.

HI,

SM,

THANKS FOR STARTING THIS NEW THREAD FOR NEWBIES LIKE ME ON THIS FRONT. :thumb:

HI,

rkkarnani,

THANKS A LOT FOR SHARING THE FILE

CNB

 

[MurAtt]

"NO CHANGE"..... What does that Infer????

As of now these Strikes are very far off like say mkt at 5100 and 4300 strikes do not make any change on the mkt. They are reducing and increasing just as hedges or releasing margin cover trades.

dear SM sahab,
thank you very much for this wonderful new thread. iam eager to know, if you would also be commenting on stock options?

No stock OI. Nifty Options itself if quite demanding and hard work ....

 

[welcome1100]

Gr8 work SM. Thanks for takng this initiative. Hope it will go long way in helping everyone and esp newbies like us.

Rgds

As of now these Strikes are very far off like say mkt at 5100 and 4300 strikes do not make any change on the mkt. They are reducing and increasing just as hedges or releasing margin cover trades.



No stock OI. Nifty Options itself if quite demanding and hard work ....

 

[MurAtt]

OI for Puts n Calls - 14 Oct 2009

[B]12-Oct-09				14-Oct-09			
OI	Strike	% Chng			OI	Strike	% Chng	
PE s					PE s[/B]
1723750	5100	157.09	Bullish		849900	5200		Building Base
4434450	5000	137.31	Bullish		[B]3083500	5100[/B]	[B]178.88[/B]	Bullish-Whoaaaa
6725500	4900	106.72	Bullish		[COLOR="Red"]4709650	5000[/COLOR]	106.21	No change
4269650	4800	104.05	Bullish		[COLOR="Red"]6744100	4900[/COLOR]	100.28	No change
4763850	4700	80.30	Bearish*	[COLOR="Red"]4316250	4800[/COLOR]	101.09	No change
2489550	4600	88.02	Bearish*	[COLOR="Red"]4275550	4700[/COLOR]	89.75	Bearish*
2999150	4500	122.56	Bullish*	2431400	4600	97.66	Bearish*
2108050	4400	97.44	Bearish*	2877000	4500	95.93	Bearish*
1450650	4300	92.60	Bearish*	703300	5000N9		
1221850	4200				664050	4700N9		
[B]32186450		106.91		30654700	95.24	[/B]


[B]CE s		% Chng			CE s		% Chng[/B]	
1184250	5500	94.77	Bullish		1193800	5500	100.81	Bullish
1581900	5400	97.22	Bullish		1578900	5400	99.81	Bullish
4428100	5300	102.67	Bearish#	[COLOR="Red"]4364900	5300[/COLOR]	98.57	Bullish
3821300	5200	95.17	Bullish		[COLOR="Red"]4187350	5200[/COLOR]	109.58	Bearish/Res.
4022450	5100	85.65	Bullish		3716950	5100	92.41	Bullish
3379650	5000	68.92	Very Bullish	2885550	5000	85.38	Bullish
2175700	4900	84.54	Very Bullish	1912000	4900	87.88	Bullish
398200	5300N9	142.44	Bearish#	796700	4800		
314350	5400N9				452800	5300N9	113.71	Bearish/Res.
196900	5200N9				405950	5400N9	129.14	Bearish/Res.
[B]21502800				21494900	99.96	[/B]
* No effect as of now coz of far strike

5200CE feeble resistance (coz 5300 and 5400 are not supporting in terms of volume)
Will it hold against the Bull Onslaught remains to be seen .. only time will tell ...

 

[chaitanyagoa]

Re: OI for Puts n Calls - 14 Oct 2009

[B]12-Oct-09				14-Oct-09			
OI	Strike	% Chng			OI	Strike	% Chng	
PE s					PE s[/B]
1723750	5100	157.09	Bullish		849900	5200		Building Base
4434450	5000	137.31	Bullish		[B]3083500	5100[/B]	[B]178.88[/B]	Bullish-Whoaaaa
6725500	4900	106.72	Bullish		[COLOR="Red"]4709650	5000[/COLOR]	106.21	No change
4269650	4800	104.05	Bullish		[COLOR="Red"]6744100	4900[/COLOR]	100.28	No change
4763850	4700	80.30	Bearish*	[COLOR="Red"]4316250	4800[/COLOR]	101.09	No change
2489550	4600	88.02	Bearish*	[COLOR="Red"]4275550	4700[/COLOR]	89.75	Bearish*
2999150	4500	122.56	Bullish*	2431400	4600	97.66	Bearish*
2108050	4400	97.44	Bearish*	2877000	4500	95.93	Bearish*
1450650	4300	92.60	Bearish*	703300	5000N9		
1221850	4200				664050	4700N9		
[B]32186450		106.91		30654700	95.24	[/B]


[B]CE s		% Chng			CE s		% Chng[/B]	
1184250	5500	94.77	Bullish		1193800	5500	100.81	Bullish
1581900	5400	97.22	Bullish		1578900	5400	99.81	Bullish
4428100	5300	102.67	Bearish#	[COLOR="Red"]4364900	5300[/COLOR]	98.57	Bullish
3821300	5200	95.17	Bullish		[COLOR="Red"]4187350	5200[/COLOR]	109.58	Bearish/Res.
4022450	5100	85.65	Bullish		3716950	5100	92.41	Bullish
3379650	5000	68.92	Very Bullish	2885550	5000	85.38	Bullish
2175700	4900	84.54	Very Bullish	1912000	4900	87.88	Bullish
398200	5300N9	142.44	Bearish#	796700	4800		
314350	5400N9				452800	5300N9	113.71	Bearish/Res.
196900	5200N9				405950	5400N9	129.14	Bearish/Res.
[B]21502800				21494900	99.96	[/B]
* No effect as of now coz of far strike

5200CE feeble resistance (coz 5300 and 5400 are not supporting in terms of volume)
Will it hold against the Bull Onslaught remains to be seen .. only time will tell ...

Murtaza Bhai,

Do these numbers only give the "Written" Contracts of the Calls And Puts??

Thanks

 

[ppmatkari]

Re: OI for Puts n Calls - 14 Oct 2009

Murtaza Bhai,

Do these numbers only give the "Written" Contracts of the Calls And Puts??

Thanks

Is it possible to know which calls/puts have been bought & which ones have been written? I dont know of any such place where i can find this info. Please correct me if i am wrong & post the place (site) where such info is available, that would be very helpful.

Thanks SM for this wonderful thread. :thumb:

 

[MurAtt]

Murtaza Bhai,

Do these numbers only give the "Written" Contracts of the Calls And Puts??

Thanks

Is it possible to know which calls/puts have been bought & which ones have been written? I dont know of any such place where i can find this info. Please correct me if i am wrong & post the place (site) where such info is available, that would be very helpful.

Thanks SM for this wonderful thread. :thumb:

If they have been "Written" then only someone has bought it - right - else how can it be "Written" or "Bought"?
Like in equities, each Buyer WILL have corresponding seller else no trade!!

 

[AW10]

If they have been "Written" then only someone has bought it - right - else how can it be "Written" or "Bought"?
Like in equities, each Buyer WILL have corresponding seller else no trade!!

Just extending what SM has mentioned in my language..

Buyer and seller are always equal.. Be it volume for a stock..or OI for options.
Just imaging a dance floor where only couples are allowed and each couple is counted as 1.
If there are more couples dancing, i.e floor is crowded.. means probably the band is playing good music or the song is really good.

Once couples go back to their dining table, i.e. floor is empty or less couples on the floor, maybe song is bad, or music is crap or something else.

OI just tells us the amount of interested parties who are currently in the market. If They it is increasing, means more people are joing the party.. and if reducing, means people are leaving the floor.

Hope this helps. (my dumb example. helps me in clearing the clutter of rules and remembering the concept)

Happy Trading

 

[yogesh-tiwari]

My this post might confuse people who are new to OI.. so plz skip if you fall in this category.. Plz go ahead with standard interpretation as given in the doc attached to Karnani's post.

I know the basics of of OI inteprtation, but a bit confused when I put the dimension of "market phase" in it..and trying to figure it out myself.. My confusion is :-

In standard interpretaion.. increasing OI is with increasing mkt is strong bullish signal. But if I look at the way smart money plays during the distribution phase, then my feeling is that this intepretation could be misleading.

If I am Smart Money who moves the market due to huge volme of their trades, and I want to build short position. i.e. I want to sell big amount of qty in the market. So I buy the stock at lower level, price goes up, novice follows and I am happy to sell my stock to them. But what I am doing is buying less qty and selling more qty. So effectively I am selling.

At this stage, I know that all other smart players are also doing more or less same thing.
i.e. all upmoves are fake to pull in more novice buyers in the market.

As smart money, I have to protect my long positions. So I start building shorts by selling futures..(so Future OI goes up cause there are enough of novice F&O buyers there).. or BUY PUTs.. (from some novice seller who thinks that mkt is going up and ready to sell puts in distribution phase).
In other words, It is difficult to find out from OI alone whether smart money is on the buy side of OI or on the sell side. Depending on the side they take, the intepretation of increase in OI might change (I am not sure as of now, I have no theory behind it, but just my 6th sense)

Both these position are Strong bullish with normal interpretation of OI or PCR.. but what is actually happening in the market is entirely opposite of it. Smart Money is taking bearish stance, hedging there position and generating false bullish sentiment thru F&O as well.

Hope you are able to visualise what I am trying to say here. Hope I get some pointers from readers here to solve this puzzle / or my misunderstanding.

Once again - if u are confused, then skip this post.. OI is great tool to understand the undercurrent of market.. so standard interpretation of it is still valid in most of the case.

Happy Trading

My two cents....

Fundamentally, the standard definitions are correct.

The only reason we have opposite interpretation in India, is due to under-involvement of retail in options. If we look at mature options market on the otherside of the world, we ll find movement co-related with standard definition.

However, SM (Smart money, not Stock martaza) still tends to have an upperhand in exploiting options for their benefit.

Anyways, AW10 is one of options veteran to clear all your doubts. :thumb:

 

[yogesh-tiwari]

Re: Tracking Smart Money Using Options

Another question - have u observed any typical range of change in OI where it gives no reliable info. but if change is beyond some number, then it is worth paying attention.
Say - 50% to 60% change in OI is normal.. no big deal.. but change in OI by 150% is worth paying attention to.

Thanks again and
Happy Trading

Just my observation,

A Nifty Strike price with corresponding PE or CE OI less than 30 lacs are less significant, in terms measuring its strength.

However, I dont have statistical evidence to support my observation. I gauge each strike price with this parameter.

Until I find a standard method to quantify significant OI, I plan to believe my eye...lol