Sharing my trades with proper trade setups

[ryan4ucar]

Hey,

Thanks. This is why I asked for reason to go long. Stock is in bearish zone and watch the volume in chart posted by you, its very low compare to previous time in that zone. Accu/distri and OBV have already made new Low which suggest that there is offloading going on. By going long at 120-125 can fetch 5-10 bucks but it will be very high risk trade, And as rest indicator are showing, there is greater chances to break this 120 support as per OBV and Accu/Dist. I will rather watch behave of stock in that range rather then buying CE.

Hi Johnny,
the Author of the above trade is a trader , he has clearly stated that his stop will be very less but the rewards will be high , In trading 2 things are always considered risk:reward and probability , while the probabilities of the trade working are low (in my humble opinion), the risk:reward is very high so it makes sense to him to buy it it might not make sense to you and me , I am a intraday trader , when dlf reaches 120 and i see some positive price action above it i will most certainly buy , if i see panic i will short sell .

 

[johnnypareek]

Hi Johnny,
the Author of the above trade is a trader , he has clearly stated that his stop will be very less but the rewards will be high , In trading 2 things are always considered risk:reward and probability , while the probabilities of the trade working are low (in my humble opinion), the risk:reward is very high so it makes sense to him to buy it it might not make sense to you and me , I am a intraday trader , when dlf reaches 120 and i see some positive price action above it i will most certainly buy , if i see panic i will short sell .

Yes, That is what I am saying that I will watch behave this time at that point.
"Discussion is best method to learn". This is what I believe so put some points only. There is no ill thought but pure discussion to sharp my trading a bit more.

Yes, Intraday trader and positional trader have diff. style. In case of DLF both need to be careful this time if it goes 120-122. As per DAILY chart I watch one setup on MACD, Its done in DLF so going lower have more chances and believe me its going to give hard time to the stock As per that setup. Some how if it goes around 139-41 will short for 105 and 89 .

Johnny

 

[Aarav11]

IN DLF Resistance is around 150 and support is around 120. Currently there is Neutral BIAS. But overall trend is down. Rather that buying at support, best thing will be go short at resistance. More better apply Price action around these levels for good entry.

 

[STRATEGICINVESTMENTS]

Hi Johnny,
the Author of the above trade is a trader , he has clearly stated that his stop will be very less but the rewards will be high , In trading 2 things are always considered risk:reward and probability , while the probabilities of the trade working are low (in my humble opinion), the risk:reward is very high so it makes sense to him to buy it it might not make sense to you and me , I am a intraday trader , when dlf reaches 120 and i see some positive price action above it i will most certainly buy , if i see panic i will short sell .

Ryan4ucar, you have covered many things as per my thinking. Its very difficult for replying every question in detail. I apologies if some questions remained unanswered.


Keep discussion open.

 

[STRATEGICINVESTMENTS]

:clapping:Hello Friends,

As two weeks has been passed so its good to discuss now further.

DLF's low was on 30th September = 127.20 and 127.15 on 1st October 2013

Last trading day i.e. on 11th Oct 2013 = High 156.90 and close = 154.7

DLF'S OCTOBER CALL 130's low was 10.50 and on last trading day its close was 27 (High of 28.70)

So as said earlier SUPPORT RANGE of 120 to 124 worked this time again and DLF bounced from this range successfully and it never threatened to enter into the zone but soon it can test this zone as NIFTY is about to turn down so PROFITS should be locked or say STOP LOSS should be tightened now onwards in DLF.

Now DLF is approaching near resistance so SL should be tighten now but booking profit is not recommended.

NOW FOR COMING WEEK.

I am expecting currency to become weak now.

I am expecting NIFTY to come down so I will recommend to BUY NIFTY PUTS now.

20th May 2013 NIFTY's (INDEX) high was 6229.45

30th May 2013 NIFTY's (INDEX) high was 6133.75

So the Resistance zone for NIFTY INDEX is between 6133 to 6230. On 23rd July 2013 it topped 6093.35 and on 19th Sep 2013 it made a high of 6142.50. On last trading day it was closed at 6096.20 and its high was 6107.60. Means it is almost at its RESISTANCE ZONE of 6133 to 6230.

Now 6100 put of NIFTY October was closed at 108.95 (104.35-Low).

Now 25 percent of positions of NIFTY PUTS can be taken at this price and 50 percent as it approaches zone or in the starting of zone and remaining 25 percent at the top end of RESISTANCE ZONE. STOP LOSS should be above this zone.

Till now NIFTY has not given any bearish signal but it has shown considerably that it has very less supporting volume for going up. For breaking the RESISTANCE ZONE it needs heavy volume which is missing. As said by me in my earlier post besides volume their are many other criteria's also (which I use) which indicates that it has very less probability of going above the RESISTANCE ZONE.

On 11th Oct 2013 Volume was 18.08 crores and close = 6096.20

On 19th Sep 2013 volume was 28.72 crores and close = 6115.55

So at same level volume is almost 35 percent less. Which indicates that price is not interested in going up. Lets wait and watch now.


NOW ONWARDS I WILL TRY TO UPDATE THIS THREAD ON EVERY WEEKENDS and if possible in the weekdays also.

Thanks for reading

 

[STRATEGICINVESTMENTS]

Hello Johnypareek,

Kindly find my replies in BOLD'S. I should have replied it earlier but couldn't manage time so sorry for delayed reply.

Hey,

Thanks. This is why I asked for reason to go long. Stock is in bearish zone and watch the volume in chart posted by you, its very low compare to previous time in that zone.

KINDLY WATCH THE CHART WHICH I HAVE POSTED. ITS DLF'S NEAR FUTURES CHART. WATCHING IT YOU WILL GET IT CLEARLY THAT PRICE WAS COMING DOWN ON REDUCING VOLUME. I HAVE DRAWN GREEN LINES ON PRICE AND VOLUME FOR YOUR REFERECE. HENCE IT PROVED IN ADVANCE THAT ZONE WILL WORK.

Accu/distri and OBV have already made new Low which suggest that there is offloading going on.

MY OBSERVATION REGARDING THE OBV IS AS FOLLOWS. OBV SHOWED THAT OFFLOADING WAS GOING ON HEAVILY BUT EVEN THEN PRICE DIDN'T BREAK ITS LOW OF 124 - 120. ITS A POSITIVE SIGN FOR GOING UP.

By going long at 120-125 can fetch 5-10 bucks but it will be very high risk trade, And as rest indicator are showing, there is greater chances to break this 120 support as per OBV and Accu/Dist. I will rather watch behave of stock in that range rather then buying CE.

I HAVE SHOWED THAT NO IDICATOR WAS SHOWING THAT PRICE WOULD COME DOWN. BTW I DONT USE INDICATORS FOR TRADING. ONLY PRICE AND VOLUME AND THE BEHAVIOUR OF BOTH IS IMPORTANT FOR ME. INDICATORS GENERALLY CORRECT THEMSELVES LATER.

Feel free to discuss if I am missing something.

Regards

 

[STRATEGICINVESTMENTS]

Hello RYAN4UCAR,

Apologies for delayed reply. Kindly note that there are many ways of seeing relative strength. In DLF I was observing the zone of 120 to 124 so I will also watch the relative strength in comparison to it. Now please see yourself in the charts posted by you that in the month of September first week (and also in last week of August) DLF didn't break the low of August's first week. Hence Low remained intact. Now please watch the same thing in NIFTY. NIFTY broke the low of August in September by huge amount. Hence DLF was showing strength at August low. I used relative strength in this context. Hope its clear now.

Regards

The charts Below show nifty index and dlf

As we can see nifty is close to upper half of the range dlf is close to its lower half showing relative weakness.

 

[manojborle]

 

[STRATEGICINVESTMENTS]

Hello Friends,

I am surprised that no one is taking interest in this thread.

Are traders or readers interested only in exact entry and exit points without so much details or rationale behind the trade ? If so then I will change my writing style.

I don't want to boast about myself but kindly check my previous entries.

I said only about below mentioned three trading opportunities till now.

DLF as predicted is up and didn't break the level of 120-124. But now it has started showing signs of trouble.

Currency is weak as predicted by me on last Sunday.

NIFTY is facing tough resistance in the RESISTANCE ZONE mentioned by me and it has come down from it.

I may be wrong in the future and then I will try to learn from them but I know one thing that edge is always with me so overall it will be a profitable situation. If I start loosing edge then only I will give it a serious thought.

Questions are welcome.

 

[nithxp]

I just see some gap ups or gap downs in some shares can u explain it ?