Sharing my trades with proper trade setups

#1
Hello Friends, :)

I have been into trading for the last 8 years. I trade full time and trade everything means NSE cash and Futures & Options, Currency and Commodities. Mostly I prefer NSE in comparison to Currency and Commodities because after closing NSE, I do daily analysis hence time is a constraint.

I am on traderji.com to share my trades with you without any hidden things.

I am a pure technical analyst and believe that there is everything in price and volume.

Hope you will also enjoy with me while trading the trades posted by me here. I will try my level best to find best trades with proper setups.

Thanks for reading my introduction.

I will try to post my trade setups here but it doesn't mean that I will take them blindly on the day it occurs. Many times I don't trade them. It basically depends on many criteria's like volume behavior on the trade setup day, price behavior near resistance or support or entry level, overall market behavior, sector's behavior etc. Sometimes I postpone the trade and sometimes I cancel it also. On weekends I try to locate the trades for the coming week and then trade them on weekdays.

Now its the time for posting my trade setup for DLF.

Yesterday's (i.e. on 27.09.2013) closing price of DLF = 132.85

Low of DLF on 4th Feb 2009 was 124.05

DLF touched those lows FOUR TIMES on 6th August 2013, 8th August 2013, 28th August 2013 and 4th September 2013. Its lowest point was 120.05. It meant DLF broke the low of 124.05 by just 4 points.

Hence the above points suggests that there is a constant Demand between 120 and 124. Volume on 5th August was 89 lacs 79 thousands but on 6th August it rose to 1cr 22 lacs around 30 percent more. Same happened to next three occasions also.

I can bore you by giving you the relative figures of DLF with Nifty and Realty sector and also with UNITECH, RELIANCE(I use it as a bench mark stock) and with many other stocks.

So the probability of going DLF up from that point is very very high.

Now the trade setup.

One can take the opportunity by taking poisition in DLF's cash, futures or options. Cash and Futures is easily understood so for the sake of saving time for you I am giving the setup for October call options of 130

Yesterday's (i.e. on 27.09.2013) DLF's Call October 130 closed at 12.50 (Low-12.40)

Buy DLF's 130 October Call when DLF reaches between 124 and 118.

Theoretical value of DLF 130 call is 4.80 if DLF's cash price reaches 118.

Theoretical value of DLF 130 call is 6.30 if DLF's cash price reaches 122.

Theoretical value of DLF 130 call is 7.20 if DLF's cash price reaches 124.

HENCE BUY DLF's 130 October Call between Rs 7.20 to Rs 4.80.

LOT size of DLF is 1000 so total expected investment is Rs 4,800 to 7,200 and return is more than three times.

One should know that stock market is a game of speculation and no one can be hundred percent correct in this. Even the greatest traders of all times were wrong many times every month after month so I will advise all fellow members to use the STOP LOSS. This is the only way to get out from loosing trades otherwise during market hours one will keep hanging to the loosing trades and keep praying instead of getting out. But one should know that market is a ruthless machine and it doesn't work with prayers.

I have seen that mostly people just post the trades without proper giving reasons or sharing their setups. I have strong believe that no one can copy other trades or setups. I am posting here my this trade setup honestly but I know that no two people can use or trade it in the same manner. Leaving this topic for future discussion if anyone interested.

Last point to be noted is that I am just sharing my trades with you and I don't claim that I am always right. So please use your judgement while trading my trades with me.

Thanks for reading !!
 
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DSM

Well-Known Member
#2
Appreciate YOU WRITING THE RATIONAL FOR THE TRADE. If it was only a trading call, not many would be interested, but when you post the reason for it, a trader can analyse the data and opinion presented and take his/her call.

Thanks for taking the time and for sharing your thoughts.

Hello Friends, :)

I have been into trading from last 8 years. I trade full time and trade everything means NSE cash and Futures & Options, Currency and Commodities. Mostly I prefer NSE in comparison to Currency and Commodities because after closing hours I do daily analysis hence time is a constraint.

I am on traderji.com to share my trades with you without any hidden things.

I am purely technical analyst and believe that there is everything in price and volume.

Hope you will also enjoy with me while trading the trades posted by me here. I will try my level best to find best trades with proper setups.

Thanks for reading my introduction.

I will try to post my trade setups here but it doesn't mean that I will take them blindly on the day it occurs. Many times I don't trade them. It basically depends on many criteria's like volume behavior on the trade setup day, price behavior near resistance or support or entry level, overall market behavior, sector's behavior etc. Sometimes I postpone the trade and sometimes I cancel it also. On weekends I try to locate the trades for the coming week and then trade them on weekdays.

Its now the time for posting my trade setup for DLF.

Yesterday's (i.e. on 27.09.2013) closing price of DLF = 132.85

Low of DLF on 4th Feb 2009 was 124.05

DLF touched those lows FOUR TIMES on 6th August 2013, 8th August 2013, 28th August 2013 and 4th September 2013. Its lowest point was 120.05. It meant DLF broke the low of 124.05 by just 4 points.

Hence the above points suggests that there is a constant Demand between 120 and 124. Volume on 5th August was 89 lacs 79 thousands but on 6th August it rose to 1cr 22 lacs around 30 percent more. Same happened to next three occasions also.

I can bore you by giving you the relative figures of DLF with Nifty and Realty sector and also with UNITECH, RELIANCE(I use it as a bench mark stock) and with many other stocks.

So the probability of going DLF up from that point is very very high.

Now the trade setup.

One can take the opportunity by taking poisition in DLF's cash, futures or options. Cash and Futures is easily understood so for the sake of saving time for you I am giving the setup for October call options of 130

Yesterday's (i.e. on 27.09.2013) DLF's Call October 130 closed at 12.50 (Low-12.40)

Buy DLF's 130 October Call when DLF reaches between 124 and 118.

Theoretical value of DLF 130 call is 4.80 if DLF's cash price reaches 118.

Theoretical value of DLF 130 call is 6.30 if DLF's cash price reaches 122.

Theoretical value of DLF 130 call is 7.20 if DLF's cash price reaches 124.

HENCE BUY DLF's 130 October Call between Rs 7.20 to Rs 4.80.

LOT size of DLF is 1000 so total expected investment is Rs 4,800 to 7,200 and return is more than three times.

One should know that stock market is a game of speculation and no one can be hundred percent correct in this. Even the greatest traders of all times were wrong many times every month after month so I will advise all fellow members to use the STOP LOSS. This is the only way to get out from loosing trades otherwise during market hours one will keep hanging to the loosing trades and keep praying instead of getting out. But one should know that market is a ruthless machine and it doesn't work with prayers.

I have seen that mostly people just post the trades without proper giving reasons or sharing their setups. I have strong believe that no one can copy other trades or setups. I am posting here my this trade setup honestly but I know that no two people can use or trade it in the same manner. Leaving this topic for future discussion if anyone interested.

Last point to be noted is that I am just sharing my trades with you and I don't claim that I am always right. So please use your judgement while trading my trades with me.

Thanks for reading !!
 

avny

Well-Known Member
#3
welcome bro,

nice analysis,with good reasoning and understanding :thumb::thumb:

people will surely benefit from your experience and knowledge

liked the attitude and your understanding of Price and Volume,:clap::clap:

keep posting,and try to add chart,

thanks and all the best :clapping::clapping:
 

johnnypareek

Well-Known Member
#4
hmm sure. Can you please elaborate why one should buy? I mean to ask is 124 and 118 you have taken to go long, how did you arrive at these figure?

Well, Infact yes DLF may show some good movement in oct. future.
just watched the chart and found that there is unfilled gap between 127.10 to 131.25. I guess this is reason for going long. I'll rather watch how it behave there.

johnny
 
#6
First of all thanks for liking my post.

hmm sure. Can you please elaborate why one should buy? I mean to ask is 124 and 118 you have taken to go long, how did you arrive at these figure?

Well, Infact yes DLF may show some good movement in oct. future.
just watched the chart and found that there is unfilled gap between 127.10 to 131.25. I guess this is reason for going long. I'll rather watch how it behave there.

johnny
Johny, I tried to give reason of going long in my posting. Actually there is a good demand of DLF at the levels mentioned by me. If there is a demand then chances of going up is more. If you have data of DLF then check yourself please.
 

ryan4ucar

Well-Known Member
#7
Hello Friends, :)

I have been into trading for the last 8 years. I trade full time and trade everything means NSE cash and Futures & Options, Currency and Commodities. Mostly I prefer NSE in comparison to Currency and Commodities because after closing NSE, I do daily analysis hence time is a constraint.

I am on traderji.com to share my trades with you without any hidden things.

I am a pure technical analyst and believe that there is everything in price and volume.

Hope you will also enjoy with me while trading the trades posted by me here. I will try my level best to find best trades with proper setups.

Thanks for reading my introduction.

I will try to post my trade setups here but it doesn't mean that I will take them blindly on the day it occurs. Many times I don't trade them. It basically depends on many criteria's like volume behavior on the trade setup day, price behavior near resistance or support or entry level, overall market behavior, sector's behavior etc. Sometimes I postpone the trade and sometimes I cancel it also. On weekends I try to locate the trades for the coming week and then trade them on weekdays.

Now its the time for posting my trade setup for DLF.

Yesterday's (i.e. on 27.09.2013) closing price of DLF = 132.85

Low of DLF on 4th Feb 2009 was 124.05

DLF touched those lows FOUR TIMES on 6th August 2013, 8th August 2013, 28th August 2013 and 4th September 2013. Its lowest point was 120.05. It meant DLF broke the low of 124.05 by just 4 points.

Hence the above points suggests that there is a constant Demand between 120 and 124. Volume on 5th August was 89 lacs 79 thousands but on 6th August it rose to 1cr 22 lacs around 30 percent more. Same happened to next three occasions also.

I can bore you by giving you the relative figures of DLF with Nifty and Realty sector and also with UNITECH, RELIANCE(I use it as a bench mark stock) and with many other stocks.

So the probability of going DLF up from that point is very very high.

Now the trade setup.

One can take the opportunity by taking poisition in DLF's cash, futures or options. Cash and Futures is easily understood so for the sake of saving time for you I am giving the setup for October call options of 130

Yesterday's (i.e. on 27.09.2013) DLF's Call October 130 closed at 12.50 (Low-12.40)

Buy DLF's 130 October Call when DLF reaches between 124 and 118.

Theoretical value of DLF 130 call is 4.80 if DLF's cash price reaches 118.

Theoretical value of DLF 130 call is 6.30 if DLF's cash price reaches 122.

Theoretical value of DLF 130 call is 7.20 if DLF's cash price reaches 124.

HENCE BUY DLF's 130 October Call between Rs 7.20 to Rs 4.80.

LOT size of DLF is 1000 so total expected investment is Rs 4,800 to 7,200 and return is more than three times.

One should know that stock market is a game of speculation and no one can be hundred percent correct in this. Even the greatest traders of all times were wrong many times every month after month so I will advise all fellow members to use the STOP LOSS. This is the only way to get out from loosing trades otherwise during market hours one will keep hanging to the loosing trades and keep praying instead of getting out. But one should know that market is a ruthless machine and it doesn't work with prayers.

I have seen that mostly people just post the trades without proper giving reasons or sharing their setups. I have strong believe that no one can copy other trades or setups. I am posting here my this trade setup honestly but I know that no two people can use or trade it in the same manner. Leaving this topic for future discussion if anyone interested.

Last point to be noted is that I am just sharing my trades with you and I don't claim that I am always right. So please use your judgement while trading my trades with me.

Thanks for reading !!
Its awsome that a experienced trader like u has a detailed plan and clear idea about exits , but trades against the major long term trends have high probabilities of failure.



Above is a monthly chart showing clear support at 120 and resistance at 170
The last 8 candles(months) have been 5 red and 3 dojis with the not a single green one




On the daily we can see there is trouble at 160 and 170 areas and clear support near 120 but a big problem for longs is rising volume on down days compared to very little volume on green days.


In my opinios this trade has the highes probability when one shorts/buys puts in the 160 , 170 area and then covers at 120.

This time when it reaches 120 i expect it to bounce very little to say 140 and go right down below 120 next target for the down leg would be 80.
Although i could be totally wrong my job as a trader is always make sure probabilities are on my side the rest i leave it to the market.



Having said this i am not saying the previous anaylisis of the trader is wrong just that my odds are better if i were to trade this stock on the short side
 
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#8
Its awsome that a experienced trader like u has a detailed plan and clear idea about exits , but trades against the major long term trends have high probabilities of failure.



Above is a monthly chart showing clear support at 120 and resistance at 170
The last 8 candles(months) have been 5 red and 3 dojis with the not a single green one

I appreciate that you asked the very good question.

First lets discuss about the Monthly Chart posted by you. In this chart last candle is doji. It means market may move anywhere. (As per Steve Nison Doji implies market has lost its sense of direction. BTW I prefer using bar charts instead of candle.) If you look at the chart then you will find the following things also in the same monthly chart :

1st Range of bars is continuously decreasing. Look at the August bars range in comparison to July bars. It implies to me that selling pressure is decreasing.

2nd Last close of Doji bar is almost at the same level of previous bar. It means supply has decreased considerably also there is decrease in volume from August to September.

3rd If you look at the second last bar i.e. of August then even after such a increase in volume why market never broke the low of August in September. If the August month volume had selling then DLF must had broken the low of August in the month of September but it did'nt do that. It implies there is a demand for that stock at that level. If DLF will break it in future then we will know immediately and stop out means our risk is very clearly defined.

3rd. Look at the monthly volume of 2009 and 2013. In this year volume is very low in comparison to 2009 hence the chances of breaking the low is less as supporting down volume is missing.

4th I like to trade in the direction of trends but if one wanna trade at the pivot points its usually against the trend. Best part is that the stop loss is very near at pivot points and entry will be good enough to give you a good return.

5th During the 2011 to 2013 DLF never tried to go down below 2009 levels hence this time i.e. in 2013 market might be testing the 2009 level.




On the daily we can see there is trouble at 160 and 170 areas and clear support near 120 but a big problem for longs is rising volume on down days compared to very little volume on green days.

Please look at the 20th September 2013 days range. Its too high and since then its constantly decreasing. Hence the rate of descent or falling is constantly decreasing since then. I will check it when it reaches near the level of 124. This is one of the few things which I want to watch closely before entering into the trade.

If stock wants to go down then it should not have shown two signs

1st Decreasing rate of falling

2nd It has broken the August high in September. It means DLF is showing signs of going up.

3rd No doubt volume is increasing during down days but look at the previous three lows of August and September. As prices touches the lows it decreased considerable. Its a positive sign. It means there is no selling at that level.


In my opinios this trade has the highes probability when one shorts/buys puts in the 160 , 170 area and then covers at 120.

Price is not going towards 170 at present. If it reaches there then we will discuss on this.

This time when it reaches 120 i expect it to bounce very little to say 140 and go right down below 120 next target for the down leg would be 80.
Although i could be totally wrong my job as a trader is always make sure probabilities are on my side the rest i leave it to the market.

As per you if price will bounce from 120 to 140 than that will be good enough to trail my stop loss to lock in some profit and get a Risk Reward ratio of 1:3.


Having said this i am not saying the previous anaylisis of the trader is wrong just that my odds are better if i were to trade this stock on the short side


Same implies to me also. We all are always searching opportunities so lets keep discussing.


I request moderators to kindly format my post so that it is easily readable by others. Next time onwards I will use multiquotes as I found multuquote just now and its not working now.
 
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ryan4ucar

Well-Known Member
#9

Same implies to me also. We all are always searching opportunities so lets keep discussing.


I request moderators to kindly format my post so that it is easily readable by others. Next time onwards I will use multiquotes as I found multuquote just now and its not working now.
Good insight into the candlesticks/bar Thanks for that ...Yes a lot of knowledge can be obtained in observing the range and volume.

But for me it has only 25 % weigtage in my decision making.
Most of my decision making depends on sector analysis and the overall market conditions.

All that we are talking can go right into the sink of dlf finds a catalyst.

The overall market is in right now is in a range of 1000 points it goes down and comes up just as easily , hence dlf could do the same go down and come up just as easily , but if a major direction was to be broken either side then dlf will follow it.

I understand u are just following ur observations, but my observations are that dlf is relatively the weakest compared to the entire sector the price action right now is very very weak , maybe people will view it as a buying opportunity when it comes to 120 but a level continously getting tested and rising on less volumes is bound to fail.. below 120 should be real panic for the stock .

Although am very bearish on a stock does not mean i am blind to price action , am mostly a intraday trader and cant afford to have a unconfirmed opnion/bias.
If dlf chages its price action i will go long else very happy to short it.

So when dlf reaches 120 it would be fun and interesting observing what will happen to the stock.Also earnings is due next month that will certainly be another catalyst.


The charts Below show nifty index and dlf







As we can see nifty is close to upper half of the range dlf is close to its lower half showing relative weakness.
 
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johnnypareek

Well-Known Member
#10
Its awsome that a experienced trader like u has a detailed plan and clear idea about exits , but trades against the major long term trends have high probabilities of failure.



Above is a monthly chart showing clear support at 120 and resistance at 170
The last 8 candles(months) have been 5 red and 3 dojis with the not a single green one




On the daily we can see there is trouble at 160 and 170 areas and clear support near 120 but a big problem for longs is rising volume on down days compared to very little volume on green days.


In my opinios this trade has the highes probability when one shorts/buys puts in the 160 , 170 area and then covers at 120.

This time when it reaches 120 i expect it to bounce very little to say 140 and go right down below 120 next target for the down leg would be 80.
Although i could be totally wrong my job as a trader is always make sure probabilities are on my side the rest i leave it to the market.



Having said this i am not saying the previous anaylisis of the trader is wrong just that my odds are better if i were to trade this stock on the short side
Hey,

Thanks. This is why I asked for reason to go long. Stock is in bearish zone and watch the volume in chart posted by you, its very low compare to previous time in that zone. Accu/distri and OBV have already made new Low which suggest that there is offloading going on. By going long at 120-125 can fetch 5-10 bucks but it will be very high risk trade, And as rest indicator are showing, there is greater chances to break this 120 support as per OBV and Accu/Dist. I will rather watch behave of stock in that range rather then buying CE.
 

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