Restoring Traders/Investors Faith into Investing

[Einstein]

deleted .

 

[Einstein]

@Einstein, can I have your inputs on R Systems international and APM Industries?

I found their recommendations on other sites and they seem promising especially R Systems.

APM : market cap: 68 crores
R system: 600 crores.

You should not invest in companies which have market capital below 1500 crores atleast in order to get some margin of safety. In case your analysis is wrong, you will loose major chunk of capital in mico cap industries. Invest in microcaps only when you'll have very solid inside information and better information then the peers.

 

[Einstein]

Out of top performing 25 Mutual funds, and their top holdings, I've created a list.
It'll surely keep me occupied for couple of months.

ABB
Abbott India
Adani Ports and Special
Aditya Birla Nuvo
Aegis Logistics
Agro Tech Foods
AIA Engineering
Allahabad Bank
Alstom T&D
Amara Raja Batteries
Andhra Bank
Ashok Leyland
Ashoka Buildcon
Astra Microwave Products
Atul
Aurobindo Pharma
Axis Bank
Bajaj Finance
Balkrishna Inds.
Bank of Baroda
Bank of India
Bata India
Bayer CropScience
BEML
Berger Paints India
Bharat Electronics
Bharat Forge
Biocon
Birla Corporation
Blue Star
BPCL
Cairn India
Canara Bank
Capital First
Carborundum Universal
CCL Products (I)
Ceat
CESC
Cipla
City Union Bank
CMC
Coal India
Corporation Bank
Crompton Greaves
Cummins India
Cyient
DB Corporation
DCB Bank
Dhanuka Agritech
Divi's Laboratories
Dr. Reddy's Lab
Eicher Motors
Eicher Motors
EID-Parry (I)
EIH
Elgi Equipments
Engineers India
Exide Inds.
FAG Bearings India
FDC
Federal Bank
Federal Mogul Goetze
Finolex Cables
Finolex Inds.
Firstsource Solutions
Gateway Distripa
Gateway Distriparks
GMDC
Godfrey Phillips India
Grasim Industries
Great Eastern Shipping C
Greaves Cotton
Grindwell Norton
Gruh Finance
Gujarat Pipavav P
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Gujarat State Pet
Gulf Oil Corpn
Hathway Cable & Datacom
Havell's India
Hindalco Inds.
Hindustan Zinc
Honeywell Automation
HPCL
HSIL
HT Media
ICRA
Idea Cellular
IDFC
Indian Bank
Indian Metals & Ferro Alloy
Indian Oil Corp.
Indraprastha Gas
Info Edge (India)
Ipca Laboratories
ITC
J Kumar Infraprojects
Jagran Prakashan
Jain Irrigation Systems
Jet Airways India
JK Lakshmi Cement
JK Lakshmi Cement
Jyoti Structures
Kajaria Ceramics
Kalpataru Power Trans
Karur Vysya Bank
KEC International
Kennametal India
Kirloskar Pneumatic Co.
KSB Pumps
Lakshmi Machine Works
Lanco Infratech
LG Balakrishnan & Bros.
Lupin
Max India
MindTree
Motherson Sumi Syst
Motherson Sumi Systems
Natco Pharma
National Aluminium
Navin Fluorine International
Navneet Education
NBCC Ltd.
Nesco
NIIT
NIIT Technologies
Oil India
ONGC
Oracle Fin Ser Software
Orient Cement
Oriental Bank of C
Oriental Bank of Com.
P&G Hygiene & Health Car
Persistent Systems
Petronet LNG
PI Industries
Pidilite Industries
Polyplex Corporation
Power Finance Corp.
Power Finance Corp.
Power Grid Corp.
Prestige Estates Projects
Prestige Estates Projects
Prism Cement
Prism Cement
Punjab National Bank
Radico Khaitan
Rain Industries
Rain Industries
Raymond
Redington India
Reliance Capital
Reliance Capital
Reliance Industries
Reliance Infrastructur
Rural Electrification
Sadbhav Engineering
SAIL
Sanofi India
Schneider Electric
Sesa Sterlite
Sesa Sterlite
Shopper's Stop
Shree Cement
Shriram Transport Financ
Siemens
Simplex Infrastructures
Sintex Industries
SKF India
SML Isuzu
Sobha Developers
Solar Industries
South Indian Bank
State Bank of India
Styrolution ABS (India)
Sun Pharmaceutical Inds.
Sundaram Finance
Supreme Industries
Swaraj Engines
Symphony
Texmaco Rail &
Texmaco Rail & Engi
The Ramco Cements
Thermax
Timken India
Titan Company
Torrent Pharmaceuticals
Torrent Power
Torrent Power
Transport Corporation
Trent
TTK Prestige
TV Today
TVS Motor Co.
Ultratech Cement
Unichem Laboratories
Union Bank of India
United Spirits
UPL
VA Tech Wabag
Venky's (India)
Vesuvius India
Vinati Organics
Voltas
VST Industries
VST Tillers Tractors
Wabco India
Whirlpool
Wyeth
Zuari Agro Chemicals

 

[aryan.]

Some of the stocks are included in the list twice.

e.g

Rain Industries
Rain Industries

Dont know which mutual fund has invested in Jet Airways. Airlines are a bad sector for long term investors.

 

[cvas]

I'm surprised at the lack of Tata stocks. Pardon me for asking, but any reason(s) you can think of?

 

[Einstein]

@aryan, yeah, just ignore those double names, poor editing work in excel. as they are parts of multiple funds. Only Birlasunlife Pure value have Jet Airways India in their portfolio.

@Cvas, I have removed tatas stocks and others stocks which I don't like eg. tata steel, tata global, ongc, oil india etc.

 

[Einstein]

hmm... Sensex down by -1.26%. Portfolio still in green... MPT sucks bty..

 

[Einstein]

My second factor is simple psychological denial.

This first really hit me between the eyes when a friend of our family had a super-athlete, super-student son who flew off a carrier in the north Atlantic and never came back, nd his mother, who was a very sane woman, just never believed that he was dead. And, of course, if you turn on the television, you’ll find the mothers of the most obvious criminals that man could ever diagnose, and they all think their sons are innocent. That’s simple psychological denial. The reality is too painful to bear, so you just distort it until it’s bearable. We all do that to some extent, and it’s a common psychological misjudgement that causes terrible problems.

poor b***ard who can't differentiate between good and bad financial decision, and rely on his 'instinct' rather than facts will eventually die poor - Anonymous.

 

[Einstein]

Well what I’m saying here is that the human mind is a lot like the human egg, and the human egg has a shut-off device. When one sperm gets in, it shuts down so the next one can’t get in. The human mind has a big tendency of the same sort.

You just can't simple tell a gambler to quit gambling, as his brain is shut because of cocaine like effect from his short term profits. I've meet some peoples recently (big investors) making few pennies in the name of profit and holding expensive stocks, we can categorize them both under same situation. I call them “one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest.”

 

[Einstein]

bias from Pavlovian association, misconstruing past correlation as a reliable basis for decision-making.
I never took a course in psychology, or economics either for that matter, but I did learn about Pavlov (google for pavlovian bell)in high school biology. And the way they taught it, you know, so the dog salivated when the bell rang. So what? Nobody made the least effort to tie that to the wide world. Well the truth of the matter is that Pavlovian association is an enormously powerful psychological force in the daily life of all of us. And, indeed, in economics we wouldn’t have money without the role of so-called secondary reinforcement, which is a pure psychological phenomenon demonstrated in the laboratory.

Practically…I’d say 3/4 of advertising works on pure Pavlov. Think how association, pure association, works. Take Coca-Cola company (we’re the biggest share-holder). They want to be associated with every wonderfulimage: heroics in the Olympics, wonderful music, you name it. They don’t want to be associated with presidents’ funerals and soforth. When have you seen a Coca-Cola ad…and the association really works.

And all these psychological tendencies work largely or entirely on a subconscious level, which makes them very insidious. Now you’ve got ersian messenger syndrome. The Persians really did kill the messenger who brought the bad news. You think that is dead? I mean you should’ve seen Bill Paley in his last 20 years. [Paley was the former owner, chairman and CEO of CBS; his bio is at http://www.kcmetro.cc.mo.us/pennvalley/biology/lewis/crosby/paley.htm] He didn’t hear one damn thing he didn’t want to hear. People knew that it was bad for the messenger to bring Bill Paley things he didn’t want to hear. Well that means that the leader gets in a cocoon of unreality, and this is a great big enterprise, and boy, did he make some dumb decisions in the last 20 years.

And now the Persian messenger syndrome is alive and well. I saw, some years ago, Arco and Exxon arguing over a few hundred millions of ambiguity in their North Slope treaties before a superior court judge in Texas, with armies of lawyers and experts on each side.
Now this is a Mad Hatter’s tea party: two engineering-style companies can’t resolve some ambiguity without spending tens of millions of dollars in some Texas superior court? In my opinion what happens is that nobody wants to bring the bad news to the executives up the line. But here’s a few hundred million dollars you thought you had that you don’t. And it’s much safer to act like the Persian messenger who goes way to hide rather than bring home the news of the battle lost.