Is only Technical Analysis enough for commodity trading

[mohan.sic]

mohan.sic bro, i may not be the right person to answer your query as i've never tried volume based trading, i prefer price action based trading in intraday. volume based trading is more suitable for equity segment as it is pure indian market trading but when it comes to commodity segment all goes in vain bcoz there comes the USD/INR factor which cannot be ignored. lets take an example, nymex is going down, then theoretically mcx should also go down but if USD is going up then despite of high seller volume, mcx will not show similar action.
here's a chart of crudeoil dated 18/3/19. nymex didn't broke 15th march low but its broken in mcx, and look at the volume bars. Then how an intraday trader take decision only on volume chart.
do correct me if i'm wrong. experts please throw some light on it, i'll also learn something new.

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Hi vishal,

You have already given the answer from your perspective. Thanks for that and I will conclude on that topic.

I think my post created a little confusion, as I see it in your reply. Will try to clear it.

Volumes based trading : Its not about volume bars on the bottom of the chart. If you notice, I mentioned -order book reading, reading volumes vis-à-vis price up ticks, downticks & spreads etc.. Right ?
Some traders try to do the prediction on these metrics, like you do it on price patterns.

thanks.

 

[mohan.sic]

Not able to understand what you are trying to explain. Really no. And I expected a trade example.
if MCX Crude was moving before US Oil, then no one will look at it for trade right. Do you get it now ?
Trade example ... hmm ... just open the both the charts and see how much points did each one move.

So you just began and trying to learn like me. Then I think both of us should learn from some experienced trader here.
my learning period is over. good luck for your learning.

what difference does the question make ? when you say USD, for us it obviously means usd against inr in Indian context when we are discussing US market ( usd ) to MCX ( inr ).Right ?
the whole discussion if about looking throughout the world for clues on the direction in which MCX Crude will move in the future (from 1 minute onwards). right. So it is in that aspect we are gauging the USD in a market place in which its highly traded (EUR, GBP and JPY). USDINR movement is very small and we are not considering that for this particular sentence.

I thought you have some method for gauging supply/demand of crude. Its okay.
i already told my method, nothing more nothing less. either you trade fundamentally or technically. There is no other way. So if you are looking for a non technical way then I am not qualified to talk about it.


I never traded commodities. I am not a trader yet in this segment. I know some basics like inventory data, exchange rate impact and so on. But as a trader I know that, theory is theory and practical trading exp is different and genuine answers from real traders can cut short our leaning curve.
In this case, Instead of starting from basics, following mcx price charts for months, doing hectic manual testing and then one fine day realizing that - Oh it don't work because we follow some other markets in commodities. Just to avoid this, and save time, insights from experienced traders will be really useful.

inspite of the disparities for a system trader, backtesting is the only way. If your sample set is big, then it will average out all the disparities.

just my 1 rupee

hi pannet,

Instead of starting from basics, following mcx price charts for months, doing hectic manual testing and then one fine day realizing that - Oh it don't work because we follow some other markets in commodities. Just to avoid this, and save time, insights from experienced traders will be really useful. .

inspite of the disparities for a system trader, backtesting is the only way. If your sample set is big, then it will average out all the disparities.

I do not understand why you are suggesting me that back testing on large sample set will average out the disparities. That's a nice statement. But why that information here ? I am not able to relate that to my query.

 

[pannet1]

hi pannet,
I do not understand why you are suggesting me that back testing on large sample set will average out the disparities. That's a nice statement. But why that information here ? I am not able to relate that to my query.

because of this:-

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Oh it don't work because we follow some other markets in commodities

unquote
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[mohan.sic]

because of this:-

quote
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Oh it don't work because we follow some other markets in commodities

unquote
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See, your views may not be wrong. But they limited to the extent of your real trading experience.
So you are not able to understand the crux of the point made by a trader with different approach.
If you notice, right from your first post here ( link you gave to some TA and Money management )
till your last one here ( on back testing ), I repeatedly said that, I am not able to relate your answers to my queries ( Not that your answers are wrong, but they are not related to the query )