A bit off topic, but seeing your comment below, wanted to add. We need to be clear about our mental/subconscious relationship with money. All of us are programmed from childhood by what we hear/read/feel about money. e.g 'Money is the root of all evil' 'No point in accumulating money, we should enjoy it' 'Easy come, easy go' et.c These beliefs about money may either help or hinder subconsciously while trading. I realised this quite late, and am correcting something ingrained and part of my psyche for over 30 years. I hope you get the point I am trying to make. Money has the power and potential to do a lot of good, and if you hold conditional love for money, money will not love you freely and unconditionally in return. This is the law of nature.
Nifty Update:
Nifty, IMO, is in its very nascent stage of getting into a phase of capitulation. One must not forget the fact that if the index can remain in an extended overbought phase , so can it remain in an oversold phase for an extended period. When the whole world was Gung-ho calling this a bull market, this thread was the first to call this a 'correction' in a bear market, much much ahead of time. Bearish views from various brokers have started pouring into media now as usual quite late in realizing the underlying tone in the market. This thread was also the first to warn of 2013 being a very painful year for Nifty, again ahead of time. Although, I have received flack from various quarters right from my first post , I have remained unfazed to put out my unbiased views on the market and I will continue to do so going forward. My analysis on the market is just not based on technical analysis. It is a combination of many factors including technical analysis and it would be very difficult for me to explain this out here. In any case this is not a tutoring thread.
Coming to the market, I would strongly advise caution in going long in Nifty from here on. Its in an extremely strong down trend and is expected to find a bottom some where near the rising trend line( 5250-5300), where it would be a low risk buying opportunity for short term traders. Although, 5500 is very good support, I expect it to arrest the fall only briefly. At the moment, Nifty is definitely a strong short on rise candidate. Major resistance for Nifty now stands at 5670-5700 band.
All the best to your trades!
Nifty, IMO, is in its very nascent stage of getting into a phase of capitulation. One must not forget the fact that if the index can remain in an extended overbought phase , so can it remain in an oversold phase for an extended period. When the whole world was Gung-ho calling this a bull market, this thread was the first to call this a 'correction' in a bear market, much much ahead of time. Bearish views from various brokers have started pouring into media now as usual quite late in realizing the underlying tone in the market. This thread was also the first to warn of 2013 being a very painful year for Nifty, again ahead of time. Although, I have received flack from various quarters right from my first post , I have remained unfazed to put out my unbiased views on the market and I will continue to do so going forward. My analysis on the market is just not based on technical analysis. It is a combination of many factors including technical analysis and it would be very difficult for me to explain this out here. In any case this is not a tutoring thread.
Coming to the market, I would strongly advise caution in going long in Nifty from here on. Its in an extremely strong down trend and is expected to find a bottom some where near the rising trend line( 5250-5300), where it would be a low risk buying opportunity for short term traders. Although, 5500 is very good support, I expect it to arrest the fall only briefly. At the moment, Nifty is definitely a strong short on rise candidate. Major resistance for Nifty now stands at 5670-5700 band.
All the best to your trades!
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Look forward to your continued posts Prada. Your stand has been vindicated. Others holding contrary opinion with bullish views on the Nifty would have done so considering the additional factor - FII investment which has been huge. The rational mind would hold that the FII's would take the index higher after which the selloff/downtrend would happen. Am surprised too that this did'nt happen.
From the thread I gather that the basis of Prada's views is : Technical Analysis : Eliott Wave theory, Candlestic patterns, MA and also tracking the currency market. I also think Prada had referenced something about Gann. Anybody else can add to this?
From the thread I gather that the basis of Prada's views is : Technical Analysis : Eliott Wave theory, Candlestic patterns, MA and also tracking the currency market. I also think Prada had referenced something about Gann. Anybody else can add to this?
One Analyst will come right and other will come wrong. That is how analysis works! That means nobody is right and nobody is wrong. The debate that we had in those days was actually very helpful for novice traders like me.
When Nifty was trading around 5300 levels, Prada gave a target of 4300. Some members saw bullishness that time. From that very day when Prada gave nifty target 4300, nifty went northwards to test it's high 6100+. Almost 900 points up move!!!!! Now from that up move it has corrected 600 points and going down.
Do you see members that were bullish that time were wrong in spite of having 900 points up move? And I don't see Prada wrong either!
Some traders need short term view to trade for e.g. what will happen today, tomorrow, next week, or month. How to trade 1000
points away target? Some are positional traders who could trade such targets, so is Prada's analysis helpful.
In short it is not who was right or wrong, for us it just that analyst could go wrong. Learn from the debate. Trade cautiously!!
When Nifty was trading around 5300 levels, Prada gave a target of 4300. Some members saw bullishness that time. From that very day when Prada gave nifty target 4300, nifty went northwards to test it's high 6100+. Almost 900 points up move!!!!! Now from that up move it has corrected 600 points and going down.
Do you see members that were bullish that time were wrong in spite of having 900 points up move? And I don't see Prada wrong either!
Some traders need short term view to trade for e.g. what will happen today, tomorrow, next week, or month. How to trade 1000
points away target? Some are positional traders who could trade such targets, so is Prada's analysis helpful.
In short it is not who was right or wrong, for us it just that analyst could go wrong. Learn from the debate. Trade cautiously!!
Well said Dinesh, agree with you that in any situation one trader will be right the other wrong. I did however go back to check on Prada's call. His post No. 4, states if the market will break thru the resistances, it will eventually top out close to 5850-5950. (See below)
This minor correction , we are witnessing within this bear market rally has a decent resistance placed close to 5380 area since the falling trendline between 6336 and 5630 comes in close to this area. If this is tackled successfully then the next resistance is placed at 5446 and 5505 and nifty is expected to top out somewhere in this range. In case there is some liquidity gush and if nifty is pushed through the barrier at 5630 then the market will eventually top out close to 5850-5950 before the deep correction begins.
This minor correction , we are witnessing within this bear market rally has a decent resistance placed close to 5380 area since the falling trendline between 6336 and 5630 comes in close to this area. If this is tackled successfully then the next resistance is placed at 5446 and 5505 and nifty is expected to top out somewhere in this range. In case there is some liquidity gush and if nifty is pushed through the barrier at 5630 then the market will eventually top out close to 5850-5950 before the deep correction begins.
Normally, Market move in a cycle and the cycle will end in Yearly Fibo Levels.
As per yearly level 5971.25 act as strong support and s/l is 6037.
When nifty moved higher and cutting this (from top) 5971.25 level on 7th February (daily candle) closed below this level first sign of nifty uptrend came to Halt. From that day onwards nifty only sell and buy. Again nifty has tested 8th March same level (5971.25) to convert everybody into Long before going into deep correction (that is the time everybody was talking 6300 + + +++).
Now yearly level "MAY" take support at 5235, let us hope.
If we understand the cycle
Daily -> Weekly -> Monthly -> Yearly -> Monthly ->Weekly ->Daily
Then taking trade is very easy without hitting our stoploss and run the position into good profit.
Let us see, ultimately market has to decide the cycle.
Nirahjan
As per yearly level 5971.25 act as strong support and s/l is 6037.
When nifty moved higher and cutting this (from top) 5971.25 level on 7th February (daily candle) closed below this level first sign of nifty uptrend came to Halt. From that day onwards nifty only sell and buy. Again nifty has tested 8th March same level (5971.25) to convert everybody into Long before going into deep correction (that is the time everybody was talking 6300 + + +++).
Now yearly level "MAY" take support at 5235, let us hope.
If we understand the cycle
Daily -> Weekly -> Monthly -> Yearly -> Monthly ->Weekly ->Daily
Then taking trade is very easy without hitting our stoploss and run the position into good profit.
Let us see, ultimately market has to decide the cycle.
Nirahjan
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