How Will The Market Behave Near And After Fed Meet In Mid December ??- Traders' Views

[RAAMAKANT]

Re: How Will The Market Behave Near And After Fed Meet In Mid December ??- Traders' V

The important part regarding this thread, How will the world markets and Emerging Markets and Indian markets behave post Fed meet ?

Well, actually, it’s more about what is happened before and will happen after rates start rising, because the stock market, as we know, anticipates big economic changes like rate hikes and recessions months ahead. Market is already nervous because of Rate hike scenario from past few months.

But the market history suggests long-term optimism and short-term caution.
“In 13 of the 16 times the Fed raised rates, the market went into a pullback, correction or bear market” in the six months before the rate hikes began. We had pullbacks, corrections more often in the six months before [a rate increase] than the six months after.

And by looking past Data and from last 4+ years of my personal observations I can say, normally Indian Market bottoms out in December month if the Major Trend is Down whole the year and
Similarly if the major trend is up for the year then in next January month Market makes Top like this year we have seen.
I

 

[niftymoneymoney]

Re: How Will The Market Behave Near And After Fed Meet In Mid December ??- Traders' V

Sirji
You have not given following choices. 7900-8000, 7400-7500, 7000-7200.... what if I want to select these ranges. So please add these ranges also, if you think right. Secondly, you have asked for after FED meet. I understand that you are allowing only a day or two after this meet. or it is of longer duration.

 

[simplebuthard]

Re: How Will The Market Behave Near And After Fed Meet In Mid December ??- Traders' V

Fed meeting is scheduled on 15-16 December 2015. How will the world markets and Emerging Markets and Indian markets behave post Fed meet ?

Traders can share their views with reasoning. But be "tolerent" with every view...

Looking forward to some good discussion.

Smart_trade

The very much possible rate hike would happen is 0.25. That is what the world markets and emerging markets already indicating. So when it happens same, dollar will strengthen more, US markets starts another leg of upward rally but in slow way in whole 2016. Rate hike velocity also possibly can't be vulgar, it will slow movement upwards.

Indian markets in my opinion, won't show any big 150+ pts moves either way up or down. I don't see breaking 7350 levels in this month even after fed rate hike.

Indian markets already very well discounting the GST factor won't pass this session in parliament. Big hands FII and DII both don't expect the GST get passed in this session itself. So Indian markets possible range post fed rate hike is, 7370 to 7870 only.

And in the mean time, some possible good news for any of the stocks category which have heavy weight in the Nifty & Bank nifty can bring slight upwards movement upto 8100 level but this possible only in Mid january 2016.

 

[timepass]

Re: How Will The Market Behave Near And After Fed Meet In Mid December ??- Traders' V

The important part regarding this thread, How will the world markets and Emerging Markets and Indian markets behave post Fed meet ?

Well, actually, it’s more about what is happened before and will happen after rates start rising, because the stock market, as we know, anticipates big economic changes like rate hikes and recessions months ahead. Market is already nervous because of Rate hike scenario from past few months.

But the market history suggests long-term optimism and short-term caution.
“In 13 of the 16 times the Fed raised rates, the market went into a pullback, correction or bear market” in the six months before the rate hikes began. We had pullbacks, corrections more often in the six months before [a rate increase] than the six months after.

And by looking past Data and from last 4+ years of my personal observations I can say, normally Indian Market bottoms out in December month if the Major Trend is Down whole the year and
Similarly if the major trend is up for the year then in next January month Market makes Top like this year we have seen.
I

While looking at the past data, on how many occasions has the market speculated for months about the rise, before the actual event ?? This time, I think, is different because the anticipation period has stretched too much and all the interest rate sensitives have exhausted their reactions. So, IMO, a 0.25% hike won't lead to any knee-jerk reaction.

Notice that our markets hardly reacted to the Dec 1 RBI policy, because there were no surprises.

 

[RAAMAKANT]

Re: How Will The Market Behave Near And After Fed Meet In Mid December ??- Traders' V

While looking at the past data, on how many occasions has the market speculated for months about the rise, before the actual event ?? This time, I think, is different because the anticipation period has stretched too much and all the interest rate sensitives have exhausted their reactions. So, IMO, a 0.25% hike won't lead to any knee-jerk reaction.

Notice that our markets hardly reacted to the Dec 1 RBI policy, because there were no surprises.

Speculaters and Speculations are always there...

Only thing is that this time it's stretched too long but the other effect of this is now Market is mentally ready to take bitter pill. I am not expecting any sudden shocks or circuits on any side, 4-5% movement max that is also not in a single day.

 

[Vertigo_1985]

Re: How Will The Market Behave Near And After Fed Meet In Mid December ??- Traders' V

And by looking past Data and from last 4+ years of my personal observations I can say, normally Indian Market bottoms out in December month if the Major Trend is Down whole the year and
Similarly if the major trend is up for the year then in next January month Market makes Top like this year we have seen.
I

good observation :thumb::thumb:
Also in Jan there will be fresh allocations by fii so we may see stop on the outflow of funds from fiis.

 

[Rish]

Re: How Will The Market Behave Near And After Fed Meet In Mid December ??- Traders' V

Fed meeting is scheduled on 15-16 December 2015. How will the world markets and Emerging Markets and Indian markets behave post Fed meet ?

Traders can share their views with reasoning. But be "tolerent" with every view...

Looking forward to some good discussion.

Smart_trade

I feel...market already factored in FED news....world market may correct further from current level..

My target 7307 major level...

Also..all heavy weights are reversing from High and all bull scripts are breaking the important level downside..

My first preference 7307...let us wait and see

 

[copypasteaee]

Re: How Will The Market Behave Near And After Fed Meet In Mid December ??- Traders' V

Absolutely right Dan bro, why should a trader be concerned about future. Saint used to say, flow with markets just like you are swimming in river. Our system should keep us in direction of flow.

 

[Smart_trade]

Re: How Will The Market Behave Near And After Fed Meet In Mid December ??- Traders' V

The thread title to me is absolute and completely confusing. May I miss understood the point, as ST even in the past has made dozens of posts in which he clearly marked that predicting is out of question even for him. We even do not allow it in the forum rules.

Now let me put in some "Salt and Pepper" in the ongoing discussion. All meant on good blood, so kindly do not forget that.

Nevertheless: When entering a trade, we do it because we feel/think/calculated/did become an entry signal and so on that market has to move some where.

As it is clear, that there is no 100% sure directional shot at all the time, like the predictors and would like to be champions in prediction want to tell the newbies at all the time and under any circumstances, why do people talk about where the market may could go?

Why do people not talk about: How do we not have to care about where market will go, as we do trade non directional ways of trading?

So why is nobody even mention one word in this direction of successful non directional trading. This to get away from guessing what may could happen?

Take care / Dan

You are missing a point that we are discussing how a market will react to a very important event like Fed interest rate hike....we are no way saying that the prediction is that the market will bottom out at so and so level and we go long there irrespective of the trend and keep adding to longs if the market tanks further,and we will see higher levels in 15 days....that is predicting ...we are just discussing various possible scenarios.The trade will be on the trends, signals with proper stops.

Most traders here do directional trading and non directional trading sounds great but let us take a definite example ...can you suggest a non directional trade in Nifty or any other stock which will make money irrespective of the market goes up or down ? Let us monitor this trade for December...we will learn something useful.

Smart_trade

 

[wisp]

Re: How Will The Market Behave Near And After Fed Meet In Mid December ??- Traders' V

Just curious...The last week of Dec (mostly after 20th) will mostly be without FIIs in action, world markets sleepy, so when would the effect of Dec 16 meet be felt?