How Will The Market Behave Near And After Fed Meet In Mid December ??- Traders' Views

Where will Nifty settle after Fed meet ??


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  • Poll closed .
#1
Fed meeting is scheduled on 15-16 December 2015. How will the world markets and Emerging Markets and Indian markets behave post Fed meet ?

Traders can share their views with reasoning. But be "tolerent" with every view...

Looking forward to some good discussion.

Smart_trade
 
#3
Re: How Will The Market Behave Near And After Fed Meet In Mid December ??- Traders' V

Fed meeting is scheduled on 15-16 December 2015. How will the world markets and Emerging Markets and Indian markets behave post Fed meet ?

Traders can share their views with reasoning. But be "tolerent" with every view...

Looking forward to some good discussion.

Smart_trade
Whatever happens in between, there will be a Santa Claus rally in the last 2-3 sessions, maybe after X-mas. But I don't think that it will break 8000 easily unless there is a game-changer.

At present the markets are near the oversold region, so a dead cat bounce anytime can't be ruled out (as PT said in the other thread).

The markets are heavily news-driven when the Parliament is in session. GST could be the game-changer, or even rumors of a consensus on GST.

December is a long series (longer than a calendar month). The vix should've been down trending, but it isn't.
 
#4
Re: How Will The Market Behave Near And After Fed Meet In Mid December ??- Traders' V

Most people are almost convinced that Fed will increase the interest rates by 25 basis points. But there are views of some London based economists that Fed may give a pass to the rate hike this time and postpone the decision till March 2016 meet.

25 Basis points rate hike is already discounted in the world markets. But actually when it comes , there will be a quick dip and then the business as usual.We have to read into whether the fed will be aggessive in rate hike programme or a slow rate hike is coming. In case of aggressive and frequent hikes are indicated, the markets will plunge further.

In case there is no rate hike, the market will go up in sigh of relief but that in my view will be bad for the markets in time to come because no rate hike means that Fed is not confident about US economy taking an upturn. And no growth in US is a bad news for the entire world as all economies are dependent on US.

Best case scenario is 25 basis points cut and less aggressive future cuts in which case the markets will be happy that the danger is either over or coming slowly.

Does it mean that the markets will not go below 7400-7200 range ? In normal course yes. I will be very much surprised if we go below 7400.

But there are many more factors for world turmoil...China slowdown,US rate hike,Geo-political issues...these may spoil the Nifty game beyond Fed meet too and that danger we have to live with for the entire 2016 I guess...

Smart_trade
 
#5
Re: How Will The Market Behave Near And After Fed Meet In Mid December ??- Traders' V

Nifty for too long hovering in this 7700 to 8300 range... I think fed hike will be the final nail in the coffin for nifty to break the range in down side... but 7500 breach will take time.... (my personal view only).. even if gst passed most of the people might sell in the relief rally... so that could also be a case of sell on rise... because as per what I read in business news and other sources gst effect on earning will be felt only in 2017.. so nobody won't risk their money for something which will happen in 2017.. and especially when fed rate hike is looming... I'm all in for a down move to atl east 7500
 
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Vertigo_1985

Well-Known Member
#7
Re: How Will The Market Behave Near And After Fed Meet In Mid December ??- Traders' V

Most people are almost convinced that Fed will increase the interest rates by 25 basis points. But there are views of some London based economists that Fed may give a pass to the rate hike this time and postpone the decision till March 2016 meet.

25 Basis points rate hike is already discounted in the world markets. But actually when it comes , there will be a quick dip and then the business as usual.We have to read into whether the fed will be aggessive in rate hike programme or a slow rate hike is coming. In case of aggressive and frequent hikes are indicated, the markets will plunge further.

In case there is no rate hike, the market will go up in sigh of relief but that in my view will be bad for the markets in time to come because no rate hike means that Fed is not confident about US economy taking an upturn. And no growth in US is a bad news for the entire world as all economies are dependent on US.

Best case scenario is 25 basis points cut and less aggressive future cuts in which case the markets will be happy that the danger is either over or coming slowly.

Does it mean that the markets will not go below 7400-7200 range ? In normal course yes. I will be very much surprised if we go below 7400.

But there are many more factors for world turmoil...China slowdown,US rate hike,Geo-political issues...these may spoil the Nifty game beyond Fed meet too and that danger we have to live with for the entire 2016 I guess...

Smart_trade
Have similar views, most probably we will have 25 basis points hike and the initial reaction mostly likely to be a fall which imo will be good place to enter long.
Regarding bold part i think if we see how fed has acted in recent times.. it takes very cautious, slow approach to avoid panic in the world markets, i think same policy will continue and we arent going to see any major change in policy in term of aggression.
 

yan

Active Member
#8
Re: How Will The Market Behave Near And After Fed Meet In Mid December ??- Traders' V

Not much but mkt wl see 7500-7200 first before crossing 8000-9000 not before March 2016.. GST WL BE Coming post June 2016 only.Every one is playing safely but trend is one n it has to bottom up first to move up later post Jan 15th 2016 only..:thumb:
 
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#9
Re: How Will The Market Behave Near And After Fed Meet In Mid December ??- Traders' V

Nifty for too long hovering in this 7700 to 8300 range... I think fed hike will be the final nail in the coffin for nifty to break the range in down side... but 7500 breach will take time.... (my personal view only).. even if gst passed most of the people might sell in the relief rally... so that could also be a case of sell on rise... because as per what I read in business news and other sources gst effect on earning will be felt only in 2017.. so nobody won't risk their money for something which will happen in 2017.. and especially when fed rate hike is looming... I'm all in for a down move to atl east 7500
The effect of GST on earnings will take 12-18 months after its implementation, true, but it will have many other positive effects immediately. It will restore the credibility of the government and faith in the economic reforms agenda. It may lead to immediate upgrade or at least positive commentary from the ratings agencies. For the markets, I think it will restore the buying momentum immediately.

As far as 7500 is concerned, I don't think it will surprise many. The market watchers will look for how much further it goes lower.

But we are at 7700 and for short term traders, 200 points is too far to look :)

Edit : I agree with ST that the Fed NOT increasing the rate will look suspicious, and a rise of over 0.25% may cause alarm. A hike of 0.25% as widely expected, will, IMO, actually result in positive sentiment for all the economies.
 
#10
Re: How Will The Market Behave Near And After Fed Meet In Mid December ??- Traders' V

The thread title to me is absolute and completely confusing. :confused: :confused: May I miss understood the point, as ST even in the past has made dozens of posts in which he clearly marked that predicting is out of question even for him. We even do not allow it in the forum rules.

Now let me put in some "Salt and Pepper" in the ongoing discussion. All meant on good blood, so kindly do not forget that. ;)

Nevertheless: When entering a trade, we do it because we feel/think/calculated/did become an entry signal and so on that market has to move some where.

As it is clear, that there is no 100% sure directional shot at all the time, like the predictors and would like to be champions in prediction want to tell the newbies at all the time and under any circumstances, why do people talk about where the market may could go?

Why do people not talk about: How do we not have to care about where market will go, as we do trade non directional ways of trading?

So why is nobody even mention one word in this direction of successful non directional trading. This to get away from guessing what may could happen?

Take care / Dan :)