General Trading Chat

[Vipul_84]

Thanks Sir, very clear FII Post :clapping:

Yes , we get this data at EOD...I have found that if FII buying is over 600 Cr and preferably over 1000 Cr, market is stable next day and likely to resume its upmove, so every dip is a buy.These days we get the break up of Index options, index futures ...etc and > Rs 1000 Cr buy/sell day is usually a trend day so that is clear during the day also.....but when we get low figures, we have to be careful as the driving force is not there...

Smart_trade

 

[Punter786]

Read this tweet slowly and twice to understand what Uday Kotak is hinting at .. https://twitter.com/udaykotak/status/774978046491238400

 

[Punter786]

Da,

How did you avoid the 2008 carnage? Did you also take losses like avg trader in your career or is it just a one way up? What was your position in January 2008? Kindly tell us so that we can learn and improve ourselves. Thanks

 

[Smart_trade]

Da,

How did you avoid the 2008 carnage? Did you also take losses like avg trader in your career or is it just a one way up? What was your position in January 2008? Kindly tell us so that we can learn and improve ourselves. Thanks

I was in the thick of trading in 2007-8-9 period.These were the best years in my trading career. I had some very nasty losses but recovered from them quickly and on balance made good money in that period.

Any trader who has traded in that period knows the dangers of being against the trend and holding losing position in the hope that these will turn into profits...they don't,so we have to follow the trend and be positioned in the direction of the trend.It is my experience that market never makes a big move all of a sudden.(except natural calamities,wars etc) and it always gives trend change before making a large move.So only people who refuse to see the trend and who argue with the markets,lose big in such moves.

During that time no analyst had any clue as to why the market is falling...it is only at the end of the downtrend that the reasons such as Yen carry trade unwinding etc people started talking ...but most portion of the downtrend all were totally clueless.So the lesson is never argue with the market and try to impose our own wish and analysis on it.So if the trader is alert,such carnage is a great opportunity for making big money.

I am no superhuman, so I too take losses,.I too have periods of losing streaks ....all part of this wonderful game which I love playing .I have come to trading ,from a corporate career ,out of my own choice and love every moment of it.

Smart_trade

 

[lemondew]

Da,

Very nice read. You suggesting calamities and sudden war are big dangers for overnight swing traders, bubbles can be identified?

 

[Rish]

I was in the thick of trading in 2007-8-9 period.These were the best years in my trading career. I had some very nasty losses but recovered from them quickly and on balance made good money in that period.

Any trader who has traded in that period knows the dangers of being against the trend and holding losing position in the hope that these will turn into profits...they don't,so we have to follow the trend and be positioned in the direction of the trend.It is my experience that market never makes a big move all of a sudden.(except natural calamities,wars etc) and it always gives trend change before making a large move.So only people who refuse to see the trend and who argue with the markets,lose big in such moves.

During that time no analyst had any clue as to why the market is falling...it is only at the end of the downtrend that the reasons such as Yen carry trade unwinding etc people started talking ...but most portion of the downtrend all were totally clueless.So the lesson is never argue with the market and try to impose our own wish and analysis on it.So if the trader is alert,such carnage is a great opportunity for making big money.

I am no superhuman, so I too take losses,.I too have periods of losing streaks ....all part of this wonderful game which I love playing .I have come to trading ,from a corporate career ,out of my own choice and love every moment of it.

Smart_trade

:thumb::thumb::thumb::thumb:.....Anyone understand and obey this message, probability of making huge loss is remote........

 

[vivektrader]

I was in the thick of trading in 2007-8-9 period.These were the best years in my trading career. I had some very nasty losses but recovered from them quickly and on balance made good money in that period.

Any trader who has traded in that period knows the dangers of being against the trend and holding losing position in the hope that these will turn into profits...they don't,so we have to follow the trend and be positioned in the direction of the trend.It is my experience that market never makes a big move all of a sudden.(except natural calamities,wars etc) and it always gives trend change before making a large move.So only people who refuse to see the trend and who argue with the markets,lose big in such moves.

During that time no analyst had any clue as to why the market is falling...it is only at the end of the downtrend that the reasons such as Yen carry trade unwinding etc people started talking ...but most portion of the downtrend all were totally clueless.So the lesson is never argue with the market and try to impose our own wish and analysis on it.So if the trader is alert,such carnage is a great opportunity for making big money.

I am no superhuman, so I too take losses,.I too have periods of losing streaks ....all part of this wonderful game which I love playing .I have come to trading ,from a corporate career ,out of my own choice and love every moment of it.

Smart_trade

ST sir, for sake of learners, please tell, how do you define trend change:
By means of pivots or longer period moving average or something else.

 

[Smart_trade]

Da,

Very nice read. You suggesting calamities and sudden war are big dangers for overnight swing traders, bubbles can be identified?

Yes,sudden wars,terrorist attacks,natural calamities and the dangers for a swing trader.That is the reason why we should not have large leveraged positions overnight as such price shocks do happen once in one or two years.But there is no need to be paranoid and not trade swing positions as such loss can be 400 nifty points but the opportunity is 2500 nifty points in a year. But our positions should be such that even a 400 points gap against our position should not kill our trading account .

Bubbles have definite tell-a-tale signs and they can be identified .

Smart_trade

 

[vijayanscbe]

I had traded in 2008 fall and 2009 rise.
Like ST said, those are wonderful days for day-traders, most of the days market moved 3%,4%,5%. If you are in right side truck load of money can be earned. And Vice versa .

Da,

Very nice read. You suggesting calamities and sudden war are big dangers for overnight swing traders, bubbles can be identified?

If you ready to lose a portion profit for hedging, Then you may lose less even on sudden break of war, natural calamities etc.
Honestly I too scared to take overnight , But now that changed with hedging with options. For example if I had Nifty fut long with PE hedge, Next day if market gap up with 100 points, I may get only 40-50 points. In worst case, If market gap down 500 points, I may lose 100-150 points.




.

 

[Smart_trade]

ST sir, for sake of learners, please tell, how do you define trend change:
By means of pivots or longer period moving average or something else.

No body can identify a trend change before it happens,predictors call trend change a dozen times before it happens and they are proved wrong every time.

Trend change can be of two types, one is v shape reversal or market gets horizontal losing angle of ascent or descent and after a period of consolidation or distribution the trend reverse.There is enough material on how to identify trend change,Subhdip is running a full thread,Saint had his thread,XRay has his support and resistance thread,I have discussed it many times in my threads....so I need not repeat the same what is already said several times.But trend knowledge is absolutely essential for trading success.

I always go by pivots and angle of the trend.

Smart_trade