Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY spot

[persistenttrader]

Update as of 12-feb closing:

Quite some time I've posted here. Partially because the counts were simply too many to be counted and rest is because i was quite busy in a family thingie. Anyways.

Following are the most preferred counts. Points to be noted:
1. Most probably our ending diagonal count was completely wrong. (105xx-10987 move confirms this point)
2. No, this is not even a leading diagonal (which I though it was for the past 4-5 days; this got invalidated only 2 days back)
3. The latest stop-loss hit has proved to be too good! I could short higher (read disclaimer first!!!)(11111 feb future) and the position is still running with TSL at 10920
4. WIth this count in mind, we may be very close to an upthrust (read disclaimer first!!!) which is very rare! Let's see...

Disclaimer: I am not a certified financial analyst. I have started this thread to track the Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY for MYSELF. By no means the content in my posts should be taken as any sort of advise to buy or sell anything; anyone doing so is doing at his/her own risk. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR LOSS IN ANY FORM (INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FINANCIAL) INCURRED BY ANYONE.

 

[persistenttrader]

Update as of 15-Feb closing:

I closed my shorts pretty early (~10828 levels, had shorted at 11040 average) and then nifty went straight down. In that downmove, I also had to endure long stop hit twice, altho it was small, I had to take it...anyways...

Following is the count as of now: Let us assmume that we are (read disclaimer first!!!) long starting 10636, sl below 10583. Target open at the moment.

Counts are here:

Reasoning for 10636 level is here:

Disclaimer: I am not a certified financial analyst. I have started this thread to track the Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY for MYSELF. By no means the content in my posts should be taken as any sort of advise to buy or sell anything; anyone doing so is doing at his/her own risk. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR LOSS IN ANY FORM (INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FINANCIAL) INCURRED BY ANYONE.

 

[persistenttrader]

HDFC: new (read disclaimer first!!) long idea

Let's assume we have initiated long in HDFC with SL below 1853. Traget open.

Counts are here:

Disclaimer: I am not a certified financial analyst. I have started this thread to track the Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY (or nay security/instrument discussed by me on Traderji.com) for MYSELF. By no means the content in my posts should be taken as any sort of advise to buy or sell anything; anyone doing so is doing at his/her own risk. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR LOSS IN ANY FORM (INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FINANCIAL) INCURRED BY ANYONE.

 

[persistenttrader]

HDFC: new (read disclaimer first!!) long idea

Let's assume we have initiated long in HDFC with SL below 1853. Traget open.

Counts are here:
View attachment 33409

Disclaimer: I am not a certified financial analyst. I have started this thread to track the Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY (or nay security/instrument discussed by me on Traderji.com) for MYSELF. By no means the content in my posts should be taken as any sort of advise to buy or sell anything; anyone doing so is doing at his/her own risk. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR LOSS IN ANY FORM (INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FINANCIAL) INCURRED BY ANYONE.

This analysis stands void. The fall that ensued took form of an a (3 waves down), then 3 waves up (b) and now the 5 waves down structure (c or 3) will follow. Target (read the disclaimer first!!!) below 1844.

 

[persistenttrader]

Nifty update as of 22-feb closing:

Further to our long position: took longs near 10632, survived sl below 10583 by just 2 points, closed near 10810. Now, we are at very interesting juncture, all explained below (all in all, a make or break situation for the markets).

A short (read the disclaimer first!!!!!!) position with SL above 10850 closing is the best bet at the moment. (if hedge is used, max loss is 30 points till feb expiration!!!!)

Disclaimer: I am not a certified financial analyst. I have started this thread to track the Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY (or nay security/instrument discussed by me on Traderji.com) for MYSELF. By no means the content in my posts should be taken as any sort of advise to buy or sell anything; anyone doing so is doing at his/her own risk. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR LOSS IN ANY FORM (INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FINANCIAL) INCURRED BY ANYONE.

 

[persistenttrader]

I am back with the analysis! Last couple of months were very busy so even traded sparingly. The chart preparation for these posts is effort intensive too. So, all in all could not post anything here.

After 11111, had taken long position with the same sl. Closed around 11760. Shorted couple of times near 11760, hit the stop loss both the times and since then, I am sitting on sidelines...

Anyways, following is the analysis (read disclaimer first!!):
There are 3 possible counts. No idea which one will turn out to be correct! All are valid!! Best is to avoid any position until the picture ic clear. Still, I am posting my counts, lets see which one turns out to be correct:

Disclaimer: I am not a certified financial analyst. I have started this thread to track the Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY (or nay security/instrument discussed by me on Traderji.com) for MYSELF. By no means the content in my posts should be taken as any sort of advise to buy or sell anything; anyone doing so is doing at his/her own risk. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR LOSS IN ANY FORM (INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FINANCIAL) INCURRED BY ANYONE.

 

[persistenttrader]

Updated count as of 24-may-2019 closing:

The count with biege background (the first one) is our preferred count, best will be to trade wave 5 (going long near 11150-11300 (resd disclaimer first!!!); will track wave-4 as it unfolds.

Disclaimer: I am not a certified financial analyst. I have started this thread to track the Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY (or any security/instrument discussed by me on Traderji.com) for MYSELF. By no means the content in my posts should be taken as any sort of advise to buy or sell anything; anyone doing so is doing at his/her own risk. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR LOSS IN ANY FORM (INCLUDING - BUT NOT LIMITED TO - FINANCIAL) INCURRED BY ANYONE.

 

[persistenttrader]

Updated count as of 27-may-2019 closing:

No change in the view, counts remain the same. Updated chart below:

Disclaimer: I am not a certified financial analyst. I have started this thread to track the Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY (or any security/instrument discussed by me on Traderji.com) for MYSELF. By no means the content in my posts should be taken as any sort of advise to buy or sell anything; anyone doing so is doing at his/her own risk. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR LOSS IN ANY FORM (INCLUDING - BUT NOT LIMITED TO - FINANCIAL) INCURRED BY ANYONE.

 

[persistenttrader]

Updated count as of 28-may-2019 closing:

A very interesting count has emerged. It's (read disclaimer first!!!) overly bullish and its target is open. It has been marked in teal background in the below chart. What had ringed the bell at 11118 when I had taken longs is the overlap 11118-11109 when 1 and 4 overlapped!!!. But I was too frail to hold the longs near and on the exit polls and results day. But rather late than never!

Following is the count, need to wait for a suitable pullback to go long at affordable sl, provided the wave counts confirm that in coming 2-3 days:

Disclaimer: I am not a certified financial analyst. I have started this thread to track the Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY (or any security/instrument discussed by me on Traderji.com) for MYSELF. By no means the content in my posts should be taken as any sort of advise to buy or sell anything; anyone doing so is doing at his/her own risk. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR LOSS IN ANY FORM (INCLUDING - BUT NOT LIMITED TO - FINANCIAL) INCURRED BY ANYONE.

 

[persistenttrader]

Updated count as of 30-may-2019 closing:

The teal background count is nearly confirmed and we are now ready to (read disclaimer first!!!) go long.
Rationale and levels for doing so are mentioned in the below charts:

Bigger picture:

Where are we in the bigger picture above:

Disclaimer: I am not a certified financial analyst. I have started this thread to track the Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY (or any security/instrument discussed by me) for MYSELF. By no means the content in my posts should be taken as any sort of advise to buy or sell anything; anyone doing so is doing at his/her own risk. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR LOSS IN ANY FORM (INCLUDING - BUT NOT LIMITED TO - FINANCIAL) INCURRED BY ANYONE.