Diary of a 315 Trader

[trade4putuval]

Re: Ambuja Cements

All daily prices mentioned above taken out. :thumb: In daily, chikou has moved below the price action indicating bearish trend.

Weekly charts shows bearish piercing pattern, indicating change of trend. Weekly Tenken stands at 200, so we can target this price in short term since Kijun is flat.

Finally, it made low of 200.3. The daily cloud resistance is very small that the price can fall through. But then

• Daily tenken has shifted to 212. If kijun flattens out, the stock can rise again.
• Similarly in weekly, the price is near the tenken and kijun, both together could be very strong support.

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Asian Paints

Finally target reached. Ichimoku rocks!


3990 low, which means all above targets achieved. Stock closing above 15ema can be an indication of bounce back.

Tenken is still above Kijun. This week, if tenken manages to stay above kijun, we can see an upside from here. Else 3904 is a support drawn from the previous lows. So we can see this price too.


Still a long way from here...

Finally 3950 touched.

3910-3920 should be the entry point for short term upside.

• 50 SMA stands at 3910
• Support lines drawn from previous peaks stands at 3896

But in weekly, bearish piercing pattern has formed. So even if the price rises considerably, it can fall again!

 

[trade4putuval]

Hindustan Unilever

Daily
Highly oversold stock in daily.

315:
3ema is below 15ema, which means bearish trend intact. So there could be some recovery till 15ema before the trend continues downwards. 15ema stands at 536. So go long with this price in mind.

Ichimoku:
Price action entered the cloud and almost reached the bottom of the cloud. If the bottom is not broken (low probability due to highly oversold nature of the stock), first target is tenken sen (533.5) and if trend continues 550 is next target (top of cloud, also coincides with a peak in the past - 17th Sept).

Patterns
Double bottom seen with highly oversold RSI!



Weekly
Weekly shows bounceback on cards. But the trend still remains bearish.

315:
3EMA and 15EMA are fairly close to each other.So it is a make or break this month. If 3ema closes below 15 ema, it is a start of bearish trend.

Ichimoku:
Tenken is in the opposite direction, so there is a possibility of price reversal towards tenken, 545, since Kijun is flat. So if bearish trend continues for this stock, 540 plus will be an ideal price to go short. Till then, we can plan longs.

Patterns
Lower High Lower Lows still intact! Break from this trend will indicate trend reversal!



Monthly
Monthly shows the stock still in the overbought zone. So there is more downside 3 to 4 months down the line.

315:
I am not sure what to infer from this. But the last time the stock touched 15ema in monthly was in May 2011. And 15ema is 449 in monthly. This should be the strong support going ahead. But that is a very long way from here.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 478. So we can expect this price to be touched in Dec 2012 or Jan 2013. Who knows, the tenken can move a little upwards too.

Patterns
Red bar following a hanging man, had indicated change and confirmation of trend reversal.

 

[trade4putuval]

HCL Technologies

Daily
A large red bar has swallowed some 6 candles of the past. If you combine all the swallowed candles, we see a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating trend reversal.

315:
3EMA is still above 15EMA. Once 3EMA goes below 15EMA, bearish trend will be confirmed.

Ichimoku:
Nothing to derive from tenken and kijun. Chikou span is still above the price action indicating bullishness. But even if price manages to come down 30 points, the chikou span will stay above the price action indicating bullishness not broken. So we will need to see weekly and monthly data for the targets.

Patterns
Enhanced bearish engulfing pattern.



Weekly
Weekly shows big hanging man with overbought RSI. So trend is downwards.

315:
Nothing to infer here. Last time 15EMA was touched was in July 2012.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 584, so this should be the target for the shorts. Kijun is flat, which means the price action has to move towards tenken.

Patterns
Hanging man this week confirms trend reversal.



Monthly
Monthly shows the stock still in the overbought zone. So there is more downside 3 to 4 months down the line.

315:
3EMA (593.5) left in monthly. This could mean that 593 can be met this month itself. But this is not mandatory. 3EMA can stay untouched for 2 months also.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 525. So we can expect this price to be touched in Dec 2012 or Jan 2013. Who knows, the tenken can move a little upwards too.

Patterns
Hanging man following a big white bar, supported by overbought RSI indicates trend reversal. But there are still days to go this month, so hanging man can become invalid.

 

[trade4putuval]

Daily
Nifty stopped short of daily support. See the image below

315:
3EMA below 15EMA has confirmed bearish trend.

50 SMA:
Price has moved below 50SMA (See black line in chart), which is a key indicator of long term trend. But we have to wait and watch this because if you look at the past, the price has managed to jump back above 50 SMA within the next two days. If that doesn't happen, the trend is confirmed. At the moment, nifty has moved below 50 SMA, so if it doesnt manage to close above 50 SMA, we may see more downside.

Ichimoku:
Nothing to derive from tenken and kijun. Chikou span is below the price action indicating bearishness. But even if price manages to climb 100 points, the chikou span will stay below the price action indicating bearishness not broken. So we will need to see weekly and monthly data for the targets.

Price has entered the cloud, so technically, once the price enters the cloud, it has to touch the other side of the cloud before a meaningful bounceback. So if this happens, 5500 will be the next target if the support lines are broken.

On the other hand, if price manages to bounce back from the support line, and if the trend is a false trend, the top of the cloud will form the resistance. So if at all, you have gone long, you exit the trade and wait for the price to cross above the cloud to re-enter longs again.

Patterns
Support lines drawn from the previous lows.



Weekly
Weekly shows the beginning of the trend downwards, but ...

315:
15EMA finally touched last week. This could indicate a bounce back.

Ichimoku:
Tenken touched and not broken. This could act as a support for the price, and there can be a bounce back from here.

Patterns
Just crossed below the overbought zone in RSI. If at all, there is a bounce back, the resistance line drawn from the previous high to the recent highs, shows a resistance of the price at 5750.



Monthly
Monthly shows nifty still in bullish mode.

315:
3EMA left in monthly, last month. This looks like the fall last week was intended for the price to touch 3EMA, which happened on Friday!

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 5292. This is very far, there are many supports along the way, so looking at the candle shape, the fall in nifty looks like a mild correction in the bullish wave.

Patterns
The shape of the candle looks a little odd, so it could be either a long red candle downwards or a white candle upwards. Let's see!

 

[trade4putuval]

Bharti Airtel

Too early for analysis! But notice the RSI curve in weekly. It is a straight and steeply inclined line from 39 till 70. This looks smart money in play. RSI will be gradually moving up if the price movement was genuine.

You can short this stock for short term profit. Supporting is the fact that RSI is overbought in Daily.
Following are the values:

• Daily Tenken: 281.3
• Weekly Tenken: 267.5

Only risky traders should try shorting this stock. If the current trend continues, 320 can be a target this week.

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Hindustan Unilever

Only risky traders should try shorting this stock. If the current trend continues, 320 can be a target this week.

Too early for analysis! But notice the RSI curve in weekly. It is a straight and steeply inclined line from 39 till 70. This looks smart money in play. RSI will be gradually moving up if the price movement was genuine.

You can short this stock for short term profit. Supporting is the fact that RSI is overbought in Daily.
Following are the values:

• Daily Tenken: 281.3
• Weekly Tenken: 267.5

Only risky traders should try shorting this stock. If the current trend continues, 320 can be a target this week.

Made short profit in future, sold at 308.6, purchased at 306.4.

Daily
Highly oversold stock in daily.

315:
3ema is below 15ema, which means bearish trend intact. So there could be some recovery till 15ema before the trend continues downwards. 15ema stands at 536. So go long with this price in mind.

Ichimoku:
Price action entered the cloud and almost reached the bottom of the cloud. If the bottom is not broken (low probability due to highly oversold nature of the stock), first target is tenken sen (533.5) and if trend continues 550 is next target (top of cloud, also coincides with a peak in the past - 17th Sept).

Patterns
Double bottom seen with highly oversold RSI!



Weekly
Weekly shows bounceback on cards. But the trend still remains bearish.

315:
3EMA and 15EMA are fairly close to each other.So it is a make or break this month. If 3ema closes below 15 ema, it is a start of bearish trend.

Ichimoku:
Tenken is in the opposite direction, so there is a possibility of price reversal towards tenken, 545, since Kijun is flat. So if bearish trend continues for this stock, 540 plus will be an ideal price to go short. Till then, we can plan longs.

Patterns
Lower High Lower Lows still intact! Break from this trend will indicate trend reversal!



Monthly
Monthly shows the stock still in the overbought zone. So there is more downside 3 to 4 months down the line.

315:
I am not sure what to infer from this. But the last time the stock touched 15ema in monthly was in May 2011. And 15ema is 449 in monthly. This should be the strong support going ahead. But that is a very long way from here.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 478. So we can expect this price to be touched in Dec 2012 or Jan 2013. Who knows, the tenken can move a little upwards too.

Patterns
Red bar following a hanging man, had indicated change and confirmation of trend reversal.

Entered HUL long at 516. One of the fellow traders said that 100EMA has been touched today in HUL, which strongly indicates the reason for HUL fall from all time high to the current price. The price last touched 100EMA in March 2012.

As per this post, http://www.traderji.com/technical-a...orrection-prediction-strategy.html#post398778, the price has to touch 100 EMA within seven months, which happened recently. Now that this correction has happened, there can be a short bounce from here. Let's see!:thumb:

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Hindustan Unilever

Entered HUL long at 516. One of the fellow traders said that 100EMA has been touched today in HUL, which strongly indicates the reason for HUL fall from all time high to the current price. The price last touched 100EMA in March 2012.

As per this post, http://www.traderji.com/technical-a...orrection-prediction-strategy.html#post398778, the price has to touch 100 EMA within seven months, which happened recently. Now that this correction has happened, there can be a short bounce from here. Let's see!:thumb:

Daily
Highly oversold stock in daily.

315:
3ema is below 15ema, which means bearish trend intact. So there could be some recovery till 15ema before the trend continues downwards. 15ema stands at 536. So go long with this price in mind.

Ichimoku:
Price action entered the cloud and almost reached the bottom of the cloud. If the bottom is not broken (low probability due to highly oversold nature of the stock), first target is tenken sen (533.5) and if trend continues 550 is next target (top of cloud, also coincides with a peak in the past - 17th Sept).

Patterns
Double bottom seen with highly oversold RSI!

15 EMA now stands at 534. Tenken sen stands at 527.
Price moved out of cloud, but managed to closed inside it. So we keep the cloud bottom (515.4) as stop loss. Looking at RSI, probability of going low at the moment is very low, but you never know. So we target the top of cloud for the final target (544-549). 15EMA and Tenken sen being the intermediate targets.

Weekly
Weekly shows bounceback on cards. But the trend still remains bearish.

315:
3EMA and 15EMA are fairly close to each other.So it is a make or break this month. If 3ema closes below 15 ema, it is a start of bearish trend.

Ichimoku:
Tenken is in the opposite direction, so there is a possibility of price reversal towards tenken, 545, since Kijun is flat. So if bearish trend continues for this stock, 540 plus will be an ideal price to go short. Till then, we can plan longs.

Patterns
Lower High Lower Lows still intact! Break from this trend will indicate trend reversal!

315 wise, not good, since 3EMA has gone below 15EMA indicating bearishness of this stock. Otherwise, above analysis still stands.

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Bharti Airtel

Too early for analysis! But notice the RSI curve in weekly. It is a straight and steeply inclined line from 39 till 70. This looks smart money in play. RSI will be gradually moving up if the price movement was genuine.

You can short this stock for short term profit. Supporting is the fact that RSI is overbought in Daily.
Following are the values:

• Daily Tenken: 281.3
• Weekly Tenken: 267.5

Only risky traders should try shorting this stock. If the current trend continues, 320 can be a target this week.

RSI story may be flop in this stock, but looking at weekly, I am not yet ready to give up on this stock. At the moment, drawing lines from the previous peaks, the stock has touched the resistance line in weekly. If you had noticed, the price never managed to cross above 309 many times.

50SMA is an indicator of trend change. The price has been stopped at 50 SMA, as if somebody is holding the hand over the stock's head, preventing it from getting up.

Last but least, in daily, 3EMA stands at 301 and has not been touched yesterday.

But I repeat again, this is a high risk trade. It could burn your hand!

 

[trade4putuval]

Daily
Nifty stopped short of daily support. See the image below

315:
3EMA below 15EMA has confirmed bearish trend.

50 SMA:
Price has moved below 50SMA (See black line in chart), which is a key indicator of long term trend. But we have to wait and watch this because if you look at the past, the price has managed to jump back above 50 SMA within the next two days. If that doesn't happen, the trend is confirmed. At the moment, nifty has moved below 50 SMA, so if it doesnt manage to close above 50 SMA, we may see more downside.

Ichimoku:
Nothing to derive from tenken and kijun. Chikou span is below the price action indicating bearishness. But even if price manages to climb 100 points, the chikou span will stay below the price action indicating bearishness not broken. So we will need to see weekly and monthly data for the targets.

Price has entered the cloud, so technically, once the price enters the cloud, it has to touch the other side of the cloud before a meaningful bounceback. So if this happens, 5500 will be the next target if the support lines are broken.

On the other hand, if price manages to bounce back from the support line, and if the trend is a false trend, the top of the cloud will form the resistance. So if at all, you have gone long, you exit the trade and wait for the price to cross above the cloud to re-enter longs again.

Patterns
Support lines drawn from the previous lows.



Weekly
Weekly shows the beginning of the trend downwards, but ...

315:
15EMA finally touched last week. This could indicate a bounce back.

Ichimoku:
Tenken touched and not broken. This could act as a support for the price, and there can be a bounce back from here.

Patterns
Just crossed below the overbought zone in RSI. If at all, there is a bounce back, the resistance line drawn from the previous high to the recent highs, shows a resistance of the price at 5750.



Monthly
Monthly shows nifty still in bullish mode.

315:
3EMA left in monthly, last month. This looks like the fall last week was intended for the price to touch 3EMA, which happened on Friday!

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 5292. This is very far, there are many supports along the way, so looking at the candle shape, the fall in nifty looks like a mild correction in the bullish wave.

Patterns
The shape of the candle looks a little odd, so it could be either a long red candle downwards or a white candle upwards. Let's see!

Nifty managed to bounce back from the support lines. So we can go long till the cloud top (supporting is the fact that the global market is also up).

What concerns me is the gap between 5447 to 5527. We are so close to this gap, that filling this up is not a distant possibility. Also if you look at the chart, this corresponds with the price action touching the bottom of the cloud. So we need to be aware of the support line breakdown. If this breaks down, we continue our trend downwards. RSI is not in the overbought zone yet. So keep the support line as stop loss and go long.