Diary of a 315 Trader

[trade4putuval]

Re: Asian Paints

So Asian paints did bounce back from the cloud top, but was kept in check by 50SMA. Crossover about 50 SMA will now take this stock to Tenken (4015).

In weekly, the candle shape looks a bit confusing for me. After a bearish piercing pattern (open above close of previous candle and closed around 75% of previous candle), the current candle looks a bit odd. We got two days more, but does this stock have enough juice to cancel the bearish pattern, I am doubtful. So what I see in weekly is revisit of the previous low, 3850. So if you are already long or plan to go long, keep strict stop loss.

Wow! All the way to Tenken sen! This stock rocks! But I am still worried about the candle shape in weekly. Let's see!

 

[trade4putuval]

So rewards have gone to those who dared to trade long!

But I am still skeptical about nifty long trend. Following reasons:

• 50 SMA still not broken:
  5642 is new 50 SMA. 4 candles below 50SMA. In history, I could not find any trend that stayed around 50 SMA for so long and continue to cross into the other side of 50 SMA. Also note, I am talking with reference to cross over inside the cloud, though instances of crossover like this outside the cloud was also very rare.
  
  There is one instance in April 2012, when the candle managed to cross into the other side, but since the cloud top was above it, it was pushed down below 50 SMA the next day. At the moment, the cloud top is also around the same price, i.e. 5642.
  
• Cloud top Resistance:
  As mentioned above, the cloud top stands at 5645. If this is broken, then we will see a strong rally.
  
• 15EMA:
  15EMA is also equal to 50SMA. So as per 315, it is pyramid-add for nifty shorts. Those who are already short from the moment, 3EMA crossed below 15EMA, this is a chance to add more lots to their existing short positions.

So strategy should be book profit at 5642, wait till EOD and check if 5650+ is a deciding close for the day.

What a way to treat the TA traders! Did you notice the way nifty tried revisting the resistance multiple times?

I got confused myself. I have 12 lots in nifty 5600PE, with strict instruction to myself to exit when nifty crosses 5650. At the moment, it is at loss, hope to see it go green today.

50 SMA and 15EMA touched yesterday.

 

[trade4putuval]

What a way to treat the TA traders! Did you notice the way nifty tried revisting the resistance multiple times?

I got confused myself. I have 12 lots in nifty 5600PE, with strict instruction to myself to exit when nifty crosses 5650. At the moment, it is at loss, hope to see it go green today.

50 SMA and 15EMA touched yesterday.

Must be wondering, why I am not posting anything!

There is no correction in trend so far, and ...

• Yesterday the price opened at the cloud top and started drifting to the bottom.
• Tenken in daily touched
• 50 SMA still above the price action.
• 7 candles below 50 SMA. False crossover ruled out! This is no rule! I think I can start making a rule for this (unless something happens this week that challenges this view). Need more back-testing before confirming the same!

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Mahindra and Mahindra

Not ready for analysis! But good for short trade.

• Overbought in Daily
• Highly Overbought in Weekly
• Yesterday's high touched the resistance line in weekly.

Wow, Finally, this worked out yesterday.

Fundamentally, http://www.indianexpress.com/comments/levy-extr.../1036509/

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Asian Paints

Wow! All the way to Tenken sen! This stock rocks! But I am still worried about the candle shape in weekly. Let's see!

High risk trade! You can go short with target of 4050-4039-3996.

• 3EMA stands at 4039. This is not touched in yesterday's candle. CMP is 4089.
• Tenken stands at 3996.

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: HCL Technologies

Daily
A large red bar has swallowed some 6 candles of the past. If you combine all the swallowed candles, we see a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating trend reversal.

315:
3EMA is still above 15EMA. Once 3EMA goes below 15EMA, bearish trend will be confirmed.

Ichimoku:
Nothing to derive from tenken and kijun. Chikou span is still above the price action indicating bullishness. But even if price manages to come down 30 points, the chikou span will stay above the price action indicating bullishness not broken. So we will need to see weekly and monthly data for the targets.

Patterns
Enhanced bearish engulfing pattern.



Weekly
Weekly shows big hanging man with overbought RSI. So trend is downwards.

315:
Nothing to infer here. Last time 15EMA was touched was in July 2012.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 584, so this should be the target for the shorts. Kijun is flat, which means the price action has to move towards tenken.

Patterns
Hanging man this week confirms trend reversal.



Monthly
Monthly shows the stock still in the overbought zone. So there is more downside 3 to 4 months down the line.

315:
3EMA (593.5) left in monthly. This could mean that 593 can be met this month itself. But this is not mandatory. 3EMA can stay untouched for 2 months also.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 525. So we can expect this price to be touched in Dec 2012 or Jan 2013. Who knows, the tenken can move a little upwards too.

Patterns
Hanging man following a big white bar, supported by overbought RSI indicates trend reversal. But there are still days to go this month, so hanging man can become invalid.

Above quote was wrongly timed. But if not entered, I think now is the time. Doji in daily indicating possible end of trend. Tenken stands at 620.

Since the analysis failed twice, I will treat this as a high risk trade.

 

[trade4putuval]

Must be wondering, why I am not posting anything!

There is no correction in trend so far, and ...

• Yesterday the price opened at the cloud top and started drifting to the bottom.
• Tenken in daily touched
• 50 SMA still above the price action.
• 7 candles below 50 SMA. False crossover ruled out! This is no rule! I think I can start making a rule for this (unless something happens this week that challenges this view). Need more back-testing before confirming the same!

As I check SGX nifty now, it seems the trend will be broken and nifty will have a gap up opening. So the above post will be rendered ineffective. Let's see!

 

[trade4putuval]

Must be wondering, why I am not posting anything!

There is no correction in trend so far, and ...

• Yesterday the price opened at the cloud top and started drifting to the bottom.
• Tenken in daily touched
• 50 SMA still above the price action.
• 7 candles below 50 SMA. False crossover ruled out! This is no rule! I think I can start making a rule for this (unless something happens this week that challenges this view). Need more back-testing before confirming the same!

Finally, the market broke lose above 50 SMA. But now we have resistance at 5749 both in daily and weekly, which has to be broken for a good ride! However, in the middle of the day, there could be a dip since 30 mins RSI is showing extremely overbought situation.

Another point to note, if the global market is not stable, RSI of nifty stops between 50 and 60 and takes its ride downwards. Current RSI stands at 50.4.

Tenken in daily now stands at 5623 and kijun is flat. Chikou span has not yet crossed over the price action, though it stands kissing the price action.

Based on these points, one can go short near 5745 with SL of 5775.

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Ambuja Cements

Finally target achieved. The cloud top in daily has formed a support for this stock now. Tenken in weekly will also form a support.

There could be a bounce back to touch tenken (209). This bounce back can be treated as a mild correction to the bearish trend (Chikou span is still below the cloud).

Finally Tenken touched yesterday. Now Kijun stands flat at 207. This can act as a resistance for the stock.

Chikou span still under the price action.

All depends on the global situation as well. Let's see!

This is only a feedback. I do not see any sell trade in this stock for now!

 

[kalpana09]

Finally, the market broke lose above 50 SMA. But now we have resistance at 5749 both in daily and weekly, which has to be broken for a good ride! However, in the middle of the day, there could be a dip since 30 mins RSI is showing extremely overbought situation.

Another point to note, if the global market is not stable, RSI of nifty stops between 50 and 60 and takes its ride downwards. Current RSI stands at 50.4.

Tenken in daily now stands at 5623 and kijun is flat. Chikou span has not yet crossed over the price action, though it stands kissing the price action.

Based on these points, one can go short near 5745 with SL of 5775.

today we will see red/green??