Diary of a 315 Trader

[trade4putuval]

Re: Diary of a 315 Trader - Suzlon

Maybe it's a little too early to celebrate Let's consider the reversal bar after upper BB pierce, unless, of course, indicated otherwise by other strategies.

Of course, we need to check the trend!

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Diary of a 315 Trader - Suzlon

Future: Suzlon

Strategy:
WolveWave Strategy

Patterns: Long green bar followed by a red short bar!

Target: 21

Supporting Facts:
See my post in this thread.
http://www.traderji.com/technical-analysis/67576-analysis-based-ichimoku-9.html#post654217

Looks like we are on the right track! Suzlon closed down again yesterday!

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Diary of a 315 Trader (Nifty ready for a slide again)

:thumb:Finally things did happen like what was posted in Kavima's thread. There will be a bounce back before it heads to 5250. I was long at 5392 and the price went till 5351 ( I had a stop at 5342), and I got a chance to exit at 5436. (I cannot wait till the actual price of 5450, you never know how the market will behave!).

I have gone short again at 5420 (Trailing stoploss sell order). The weekly bearish candles has not been invalidated yet, so it will show more downside in today's short term trade (Saturday Trade), if it closes near 5325.

I made a temporary exit at 5336, only to see nifty slide further till 5300. When price recovered, I went short again at 5320. Looks like the price 5250 is sure to be hit. But looking at GFZ for nifty in 30 mins, 5250 looks like a strong support! So I will look to exit at this price!

However in daily nifty chart, considering the SMA Envelope strategy (looks like bollinger band, but provides a GFZ zone in daily chart), the price is 5130. Lets see! However the upper band is set at 5750, so if there is a positive news, there could be a very good rise from here. Wait and Watch!

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Diary of a 315 Trader (Nifty ready for a slide again)

I made a temporary exit at 5336, only to see nifty slide further till 5300. When price recovered, I went short again at 5320. Looks like the price 5250 is sure to be hit. But looking at GFZ for nifty in 30 mins, 5250 looks like a strong support! So I will look to exit at this price!

However in daily nifty chart, considering the SMA Envelope strategy (looks like bollinger band, but provides a GFZ zone in daily chart), the price is 5130. Lets see! However the upper band is set at 5750, so if there is a positive news, there could be a very good rise from here. Wait and Watch!

Wow! What a ride it was!

Exited shorts @5257 and went long 1 lot @5257. Made a mistake of not using the trailing stop loss sell order and the long was covered @ 5299, with one short added @5299. But the price never stopped and it went on till 5423. Could not take benefit of this ride! However shorted two more lots @5327 and @5334.

The price went down, so covered 1 lot @5257 and 1 lot @5237. Net holding position, 1 lot short. Will look to exit today when the candle leaves 3EMA due to gap down. But now we should identify a point where the reversal will start.

 

[trade4putuval]

I plan to revive this thread with my trades again! Hope to help all of you with my analysis!

 

[trade4putuval]

I will be posting my views on the following 3 stocks at the moment - Asian Paints, Maruti and Ambuja Cements!

 

[trade4putuval]

Ambuja Cements

Daily
Ambuja Cements was supposed to be a short position from last Thursday. In fact, I had a position in the stock on Thursday, which I covered yesterday. I will re-enter again at a slightly higher price from yesterday's close.

315:
3ema is still above 15ema, which means bullish trend intact. But 3ema every day since Thursday is coming down, which means trend is changing. If 3ema tomorrow manages to close above yesterday's 3ema, we will have to exit the position and wait. 15ema stands at 210.

15ema in 30 mins stands 215.5. This should be the entry price.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 209.90. This is the short term target. If the price touches this on Monday morning, this will change to a wait and watch, since tenken always serves as a short term support. If tenken is taken down, kijun stands at 199, which serves as a strong support. This is also in line with the medium term support lines drawn from 11th October 2012.

Patterns
Lower High Lower Low: Indicates the change of trend.



Weekly
Weekly shows a double top formation already completed.

315:
3ema is still above 15ema, which means bullish trend intact. 3ema stands at 210, which concides with 15ema of daily. Nothing to infer here.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 199, which coincides with the Kijun of daily. This again indicates a strong support for the stock.

Patterns
RSI: Overbought and almost double top formation.



Monthly
Monthly shows the two month candle trying to take out the top, 222.4, which failed.

315:
3ema is still above 15ema, which means bullish trend intact.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 180. Nothing to infer here. This is a worst case scenario for the global market where the stock can go before turning around.

Patterns
RSI: Overbought

 

[trade4putuval]

Asian Paints

Daily
Asian paints on an unexpected day rose from 3800 to 4200 in a single day, though it managed to return back to the same price next day. But whenever a spike like this happens, it is an indication that the future price of this stock is bound to touch the spike high. This spike happened in May 2012, and it got touched again last week.

315:
3ema is still above 15ema, which means bullish trend intact. Nothing to infer here.

15ema in 30 mins stands 4141. This should be the entry price.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 4020. This is the short term target. If the price touches this on Monday morning, this will change to a wait and watch, since tenken always serves as a short term support. If tenken is taken down, kijun stands at 3983, which serves as a strong support.

Patterns
Bearish Harami: Indicates the change of trend.



Weekly
Weekly shows a double top formation already completed.

315:
3ema is still above 15ema, which means bullish trend intact. 3ema stands at 4008, which is very near the 15ema of daily (4000). Nothing to infer here.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 3822. This will be a short term support. Nothing to infer here.

Patterns
RSI: Overbought and almost double top formation.



Monthly
Monthly shows the double top formation.

315:
3ema is still above 15ema, which means bullish trend intact.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 3545. Kijun is flat so we could see the price of 3545 in the next 2 to 3 months.

Patterns
Double top formation

 

[trade4putuval]

Maruti

Daily
Maruti is overheating in all the charts. A plateau is being formed at the top, which indicates a short term downtrend is due.

315:
3ema is still above 15ema, which means bullish trend intact. Nothing to infer here.

15ema in 30 mins stands 1465. This should be the entry price, but looking at 30 mins, it looks like we can get 1470 again.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 1412. This is the short term target. Kijun is flat which means the price action (current price) has to touch tenken sen. Kijun also stands at this price. Tenken - Kijun crossover indicates the bullish or bearish trend. If tenken goes below Kijun, this stands the bearish phase for this stock.

Patterns
Hanging Man: Indicates the change of trend, but you can never trust this pattern .



Weekly
Weekly shows a doji after a long green candle.

315:
3ema is still above 15ema, which means bullish trend intact. But the candle has left 3ema, 1439. So the price has to come down to touch 3ema before it takes any decision!

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 1303. This will be a short term support. Nothing to infer here.

Patterns
RSI: Overbought and doji



Monthly
Monthly shows sign of becoming a doji, but it is too early to say (this is only the beginning of the month).

315:
3ema is still above 15ema, which means bullish trend intact. But the candle has left 3ema, 1404. So price has to close near this price.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 1247, also the cloud top. Kijun is flat so we could see the price of 1247 in the next 2 to 3 months. Also this is the 50SMA which indicates the bullish trend will be intact in monthly. In addition, this will be the support line drawn from the previous lows.

Patterns
Hanging man at the moment!

 

[ashish2010]

Re: Maruti

Daily
Maruti is overheating in all the charts. A plateau is being formed at the top, which indicates a short term downtrend is due.

315:
3ema is still above 15ema, which means bullish trend intact. Nothing to infer here.

15ema in 30 mins stands 1465. This should be the entry price, but looking at 30 mins, it looks like we can get 1470 again.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 1412. This is the short term target. Kijun is flat which means the price action (current price) has to touch tenken sen. Kijun also stands at this price. Tenken - Kijun crossover indicates the bullish or bearish trend. If tenken goes below Kijun, this stands the bearish phase for this stock.

Patterns
Hanging Man: Indicates the change of trend, but you can never trust this pattern .



Weekly
Weekly shows a doji after a long green candle.

315:
3ema is still above 15ema, which means bullish trend intact. But the candle has left 3ema, 1439. So the price has to come down to touch 3ema before it takes any decision!

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 1303. This will be a short term support. Nothing to infer here.

Patterns
RSI: Overbought and doji



Monthly
Monthly shows sign of becoming a doji, but it is too early to say (this is only the beginning of the month).

315:
3ema is still above 15ema, which means bullish trend intact. But the candle has left 3ema, 1404. So price has to close near this price.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 1247, also the cloud top. Kijun is flat so we could see the price of 1247 in the next 2 to 3 months. Also this is the 50SMA which indicates the bullish trend will be intact in monthly. In addition, this will be the support line drawn from the previous lows.

Patterns
Hanging man at the moment!

Dear trade4putuval,

If you don't mind, please post charts also with your explanation. This will be of great help.