Diary of a 315 Trader

[trade4putuval]

Well, TS recovered with a bang to reach 240. So waiting for 254 before changing my views on this stock. :thumb:

Wow! 254 touched, extended and closed below 254. This weeks looks to close near 262, and if it happens we need to rely on Fibo levels to get to the next target keeping 254 as stop.

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Nifty: Confused Views

Some identifications based on today's view

• Tenken has been taken out but 10 more points for 15EMA.
• There is a cloud top at 5760. Will that be a stiff resistance?
• We have a Fibo Level at 5718 and 5789.
• RSI is still in the overbought zone.

Other than the RSI factor, I am yet to decide if the bullish trend has started for Nifty. So I will keep 50SMA as the deciding factor about the trend reversal. At the moment, 5812 is 50SMA. So looking at Fibo levels and 50SMA, we go short at 5790 with strict stop of 5812 (This happens to be the cloud top in weekly). Till then, consider all other indicators to trade the middle zone, long or short.

Oh, did nifty stop short of the daily cloud bottom!! Does this indicate downside from here? The cloud looks so thick that it offers very huge resistance to price movement. So we can go short with the cloud bottom as stop or some 10 points into the cloud.

On the contrary:

• If swing trading strategy (SST) is to be followed in 30 minutes, the trend has turned bullish today.
• To determine trend reversal, check 3ema of all days in daily, and check if 3ema has consequently opened higher 3 times after a bearish fall. This happened today. This could mean trend reversal.
• Volatility looks very high because Tenken moved into the cloud in weekly. There will be fluctuations till tenken exits the cloud. So do not expect a straight trend in nifty for the next week.
  RSI just entered trading zone from extreme zones. Need to wait till it reaches 50 and check the trend again.

 

[trade4putuval]

So JP has entered the cloud as per the post, http://www.traderji.com/equities/88891-jp-associates-buy-sell-3.html#post843957. The stop loss 30.30 is still intact, low made is 30.60.

So now what! As per ichimoku strategy, if the price enters the cloud, there is 85% chance of touching the cloud top, which happens to be around 34-35, which happens to contain the tenken (Tenken has fell drastically in yesterday's trade).

Weekly wise, tenken has not touched since a long time, and the current tenken is 47.1. Will the price go there!!! :lol:
Anyway, keep the cloud bottom as the stop loss or still to 30.30 levels to reverse trend!

From SST point of view, the trend has turned bullish. Expecting to cross 36 this week or perhaps next week. But all depends on the global markets too!

 

[trade4putuval]

Jpa

From SST point of view, the trend has turned bullish. Expecting to cross 36 this week or perhaps next week. But all depends on the global markets too!

Yesterday, JP in the last half an hour broke the swing high in 30 minutes chart with a big candle. Check zoomed version of 30 minutes from google finance.

Now the target will be the next swing highs. Check the long range version of 30 minutes from google finance.

Stop loss is now the low dip made recently in 30 minutes, that is 32.50. More conservative stop loss is the dotted line shown in the first chart.

 

[trade4putuval]

Ts

Revisiting the post of Tata steel. 240 taken out took the stock to 202.35 yesterday. Finally, I am able to see light at the end of the tunnel for this stock.

Check daily chart.

I drew the Fibo levels, and if you see the brown arrows, the levels were sustained along the downtrend. So we can be sure that these levels are a little accurate.
Secondly, we see a bullish engulfing pattern, which can be an indicator that a turn around has started.

So now what! Aim for the first level @ 254.

However hard you try, some stocks cannot be beaten. They have been crushed, pulped, but they return back with full vengeance. Chart below for TS...

 

[trade4putuval]

JPAssociates

However hard you try, some stocks cannot be beaten. They have been crushed, pulped, but they return back with full vengeance. Chart below for TS...

Will we see a TS repeat with JP Associates?

 

[a1b1trader]

Please share you views on NIFTY and BANKNIFTY

Thanks

 

[4candles]

Re: Ts

Pic 1.

Pic 2.

However hard you try, some stocks cannot be beaten. They have been crushed, pulped, but they return back with full vengeance. Chart below for TS...

Hi R Putuval

I have a few Q regarding Fibonacci Levels in the abive pic:

1. Can you tell me if the fib is a retracement or an extension?
2. What is the peak and troque/bottom value that you have selected?
3. Why are the values when compared with both the pics different at 100%?
Finally
4. If this is a Fib retracement then are you sure your plotting criteria is correct?

Regards

 

[Gandhar.]

Re: Ts

Pic 1.



Pic 2.




Hi R Putuval

I have a few Q regarding Fibonacci Levels in the abive pic:

1. Can you tell me if the fib is a retracement or an extension?
2. What is the peak and troque/bottom value that you have selected?
3. Why are the values when compared with both the pics different at 100%?
Finally
4. If this is a Fib retracement then are you sure your plotting criteria is correct?

Regards

On point 3
the site is chartink and we have to draw the fibo by hands and it dosent goes to get the exact levels (dosent auto correct to exact value).
so each time when a person goes and draws fibo or other things it wont be exact the same unless u give it some tries

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Ts

Hi R Putuval

I have a few Q regarding Fibonacci Levels in the abive pic:

1. Can you tell me if the fib is a retracement or an extension?
2. What is the peak and troque/bottom value that you have selected?
3. Why are the values when compared with both the pics different at 100%?
Finally
4. If this is a Fib retracement then are you sure your plotting criteria is correct?

Regards

Thanks Gandhar for answering Point 3.

For others, Fibonacci levels are never the same every day. So unless the levels are broken, we respect the Fibonacci levels that I had drawn. If the levels are broken, then the currently Fibonacci levels are thrown out and a new set is drawn when we find the price getting stabilized.

• In the case of TS, there was a turn around indicated by a pattern, bullish engulfing pattern.
• If you notice JPA, the trend is shown flat with price oscillating between 29 and 34. But it broke the swing high in 30 minutes, indicating that a break out has happened in the short term. If you check my previous post you can see the levels I have pointed out. This factor can be treated as a turn around.

In addition, I can only chalk out the trend based on my knowledge. Perhaps you are right, that I might not be considering all the factors of Fibonacci series, if any. I am still learning .

Moreover, these are my views, not prediction that the price will move as per my views. If at all, the price moves as per my views, my Fibonacci levels may help the traders to plan their entry or exit. On the contrary, if the price goes against my views, these views goes into the dustbin. I have provided the stoploss for JP in this post, http://www.traderji.com/futures/67625-diary-315-trader-24.html#post851074 and for TS, it is the Fibo Level, 254.