Diary of a 315 Trader

[trade4putuval]

ICICI Bank


ICICI Bank:
Check previous post to understand what I want you to see in this chart :thumb:.

 

[trade4putuval]

Idea Cellular


Results today!

Not very accurate! Check previous post to understand this chart.
But we need to see what happens today. If 170.8 is broken, then these levels are useless.

 

[kaydee1127]

Dear trade4putuval

Please, let us have your views on NIFTY and SBIN, if possible for you

Thanks

 

[trade4putuval]

Nifty: Confused Views


If you look at both Nifty weekly and daily, you will become very confused as to what will happen this week.

Main points/levels to consider:

• Weekly 100ema stands at 5616 spot. Price tends to get rejected or propelled in the opposite direction to a wide extent. At the moment, we do not have enough good news for nifty to propel above this level. So it might be a touch and fall strategy. So if you are long, you exit once around this price, or go short around this level with a tight stop loss. Target is 5440, which is the bottom of the ichimoku cloud in weekly, which looks like a big step, indicating good support.
• Monthly shows some more downside. Upside is not very convincing.
• Daily shows uptrend due to Tenken (5715) that has not been touched since some time. So all depends on whether nifty holds to 5616 as per weekly 100ema

Note: Nifty bounce back in line with the long backward cloud step in daily. Price retraced from this levels.

 

[trade4putuval]

SBIN: Double Bottom in weekly???


I see a double bottom formation in weekly.

Considering that the double bottom is successful in weekly, I use the Fibo levels to predict the next levels. See the daily chart.

• 1810 is the first target.
• If 1810 is taken out, we need to focus on the swing high as represented by a blue mountain in the picture. If this swing high is taken out, then as per technical rules, the target will be the next swing high, which is 2029. Else it is a return back to 1600s, and a possible break down to a new low.

We keep a strict stop at 1590, the weekly bottom for going long.

 

[kaydee1127]

Dear trade4putuval

Many thanks to you for analysing NIFTY and SBIN.
So the +ww in SBIN with target 1720, that I noticed in 15 minute chart, is in line with your analysis.

Only one doubt, there is a HnS pattern in 15 minute chart, and this HnS is currently active. Has this HnS met its target or more downfall is there.

Thanks once again.

 

[trade4putuval]

Dear trade4putuval

Many thanks to you for analysing NIFTY and SBIN.
So the +ww in SBIN with target 1720, that I noticed in 15 minute chart, is in line with your analysis.

Only one doubt, there is a HnS pattern in 15 minute chart, and this HnS is currently active. Has this HnS met its target or more downfall is there.

Thanks once again.

I do not have 15 minute chart, plus I do not analyze head and shoulder properly, so I am not in a position to answer that question.

 

[trade4putuval]

Revisiting the post of Tata steel. 240 taken out took the stock to 202.35 yesterday. Finally, I am able to see light at the end of the tunnel for this stock.

...

I drew the Fibo levels, and if you see the brown arrows, the levels were sustained along the downtrend. So we can be sure that these levels are a little accurate.
Secondly, we see a bullish engulfing pattern, which can be an indicator that a turn around has started.

So now what! Aim for the first level @ 254.

Well, TS recovered with a bang to reach 240. So waiting for 254 before changing my views on this stock. :thumb:

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Nifty: Confused Views

If you look at both Nifty weekly and daily, you will become very confused as to what will happen this week.

Main points/levels to consider:

• Weekly 100ema stands at 5616 spot. Price tends to get rejected or propelled in the opposite direction to a wide extent. At the moment, we do not have enough good news for nifty to propel above this level. So it might be a touch and fall strategy. So if you are long, you exit once around this price, or go short around this level with a tight stop loss. Target is 5440, which is the bottom of the ichimoku cloud in weekly, which looks like a big step, indicating good support.
• Monthly shows some more downside. Upside is not very convincing.
• Daily shows uptrend due to Tenken (5715) that has not been touched since some time. So all depends on whether nifty holds to 5616 as per weekly 100ema

Note: Nifty bounce back in line with the long backward cloud step in daily. Price retraced from this levels.

Some identifications based on today's view

• Tenken has been taken out but 10 more points for 15EMA.
• There is a cloud top at 5760. Will that be a stiff resistance?
• We have a Fibo Level at 5718 and 5789.
• RSI is still in the overbought zone.

Other than the RSI factor, I am yet to decide if the bullish trend has started for Nifty. So I will keep 50SMA as the deciding factor about the trend reversal. At the moment, 5812 is 50SMA. So looking at Fibo levels and 50SMA, we go short at 5790 with strict stop of 5812 (This happens to be the cloud top in weekly). Till then, consider all other indicators to trade the middle zone, long or short.

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: SBIN: Double Bottom in weekly???

I see a double bottom formation in weekly.

Considering that the double bottom is successful in weekly, I use the Fibo levels to predict the next levels. See the daily chart.

• 1810 is the first target.
• If 1810 is taken out, we need to focus on the swing high as represented by a blue mountain in the picture. If this swing high is taken out, then as per technical rules, the target will be the next swing high, which is 2029. Else it is a return back to 1600s, and a possible break down to a new low.

We keep a strict stop at 1590, the weekly bottom for going long.

My bad! One of my colleague pointed out that 1590 was not previous weekly bottom. It was 1573. And guess what, the price turned around at 1575.

Reconstructing the Fibo levels with the right price, the first fibo level is at 1765. So long as the markets are green, aim for this level, but keep strict stop loss at 1575. The results were not good, so we would not want to get stuck in a wrong trade. Besides, if 1575 is taken, the next level is 1475. So trade safe in this stock.

If you consider the swing trading strategy, there is a swing high at 1729. If this level is taken out with a very big white candle, you can forget going downtrend. Then the next level is the next swing high, which is 1870.