Day Trading Stocks & Futures

[travi]

ho gaya bulls ki lanka ka dahan

couldn't do anything, didn't capitalize on the upmove. subhe ke rate pe nikal na pada NF swing wale pe. Monday dekhte hai

 

[TraderRavi]

John bhai said very big fall in BNF this week. Ab lagta hai next week unki iccha bhi poori ho jayegi

 

[travi]

John bhai said very big fall in BNF this week. Ab lagta hai next week unki iccha bhi poori ho jayegi

John bhai, itna darao mat TR bhai ko
kabhi big upmoves bhi bata diya karo

Itni badi Rally hui, positions will get lighter na ?

 

[TraderRavi]

Banknifty-This is just my view and I could be wrong.
I have been waiting for a crash in banknifty since last couple of weeks. Looks like we are inching closer to one of the record crashes. I expect atleast 1200-1800 points crash in a single day or more 2000 points fall if it crash splits to 2-3 days. it depends on at what time of the day it starts to fall.
Below is 5 min chart and it looks like forming LD. I am waiting for it to pull back as ABC shown below. If it happens then we can gain confidence. Even if this count is going to be wrong, crash is eminent and cant be avoided , only can be postponed to another day. but its coming.
Any pull back for abc of about 300-500 points, could just be a trap. Something is not right about Banknifty now. I am eager to see what bad news is going to drive it crazy now. View attachment 38476

ye wali post

 

[traderhardrock]

80000

 

[TraderRavi]

John bhai, itna darao mat TR bhai ko
kabhi big upmoves bhi bata diya karo

Itni badi Rally hui, positions will get lighter na ?

kya kare John bhai ne sab crash wali post dali hai this week.

 

[traderhardrock]

John bhai, itna darao mat TR bhai ko
kabhi big upmoves bhi bata diya karo

Itni badi Rally hui, positions will get lighter na ?

Though what posted by John bro is not impossible (as market being supreme) but not convincing.
Only my view

 

[travi]

News before Moodys and all yest, in the lat couple of days worldwide esp US,
reports show that there are record high purchases of Gold ETFs

so speculators are speculating that we cant have both aggressive buying in EQ and Gold.

 

[lemondew]

Would love to hear me from you on how you guys go about the analytical work.

For an ecommerce or a physical brick and mortar business if he can sell goods he is making profit. Had the ecommerce guy asked should I run the business only on friday / monday your answer would be simple. Run it 24/7. Amazon never shuts down its website. He needs to sell 1000s of items or 1000 items of different category to cover his expenses. He cannot go in loss if his transactions go up. He has an edge and he is trying to figure out how to increase the number of transactions.

Now for a trader putting a trade does not confirm a profit. Putting a trade confirms an extra STT he has to pay . Or putting 1000s of trades also doesnt confirm a profit.

The objective of an ecommerce website is to increase the transactions and may be you guys tried to find out which days the sales were down or the (sum cumulative of sale of high ticket items and low ticket items were low) In trading we try to isolate (cumulative profit/ loss) transactions which are overall positive. They are different business.

We can only increase those transaction which has an edge. Every transaction for an ecommerce will have an edge. The two businesses are different.

No @lemondew , it does not work that way. It does not matter how many trades one takes on a given day, what matters is at the end of day was it profitable/Loss and what is the magnitude. I am able to confirm this with confidence is because I have build couple of analytical models for one of the top ecommerce company using more than trillion data points for training the model.

The usecase was to find the most profitable and least profitable day in the week. Based on this the objective was to identify the days of the week in which the company can run promotions to boost up the sales. Similar models are run in our supermarkets/stores to increase the foot prints and clear off the inventory. Good example is if you are in Bangalore you can find Reliance fresh running offer days on every Wednesdays...now we know why this offer is only for wednesday..

 

[ncube]

Would love to hear me from you on how you guys go about the analytical work.

For an ecommerce or a physical brick and mortar business if he can sell goods he is making profit. Had the ecommerce guy asked should I run the business only on friday / monday your answer would be simple. Run it 24/7. Amazon never shuts down its website. He needs to sell 1000s of items or 1000 items of different category to cover his expenses. He cannot go in loss if his transactions go up. He has an edge and he is trying to figure out how to increase the number of transactions.

Now for a trader putting a trade does not confirm a profit. Putting a trade confirms an extra STT he has to pay . Or putting 1000s of trades also doesnt confirm a profit.

The objective of an ecommerce website is to increase the transactions and may be you guys tried to find out which days the sales were down or the (sum cumulative of sale of high ticket items and low ticket items were low) In trading we try to isolate (cumulative profit/ loss) transactions which are overall positive. They are different business.

We can only increase those transaction which has an edge. Every transaction for an ecommerce will have an edge. The two businesses are different.

Ok @lemondew, I just shared my experience and how I see it. If you are satisfied and confident with your analysis its fine as each of us can have different opinions and I respect it.

Regarding the analytics work we do, its mostly driven by domain knowledge,data and statistics. The use-case I shared was just basic and it is not that simple and there are complex logic defined and if I try to explain it I may have to write a whole book..

Few pointers if you want to explore further:
1. "We can only increase those transaction which has an edge"
Edge is not for a transaction, one cannot know in advance which transaction will be profitable. Edge is governed by the law of large number. i.e over a number of trades you will get to know your edge. A trader takes trades knowing that he has a edge over a number of trades and putting more trades is actually beneficial to him as he has a higher chances of getting the edge to play out in his favor. It does not mean he takes all trades only the trades which are as per his trading signal should be taken and taken for measurement.

2. "Every transaction for an ecommerce will have an edge"
This is not true, looks like you are not aware of the various business models. For ecommerce like Amazon, they are business aggregators and host products from different vendors and also have their own products. While Amazon may make profit for every transaction, the vendors may or may not make it. The example of Reliance fresh I gave is easier to understand,they have both perishable & non perishable items for sale. They cannot hold on to perishable items for long and non-perishable products which are not in vogue, hence just like trading they try to cut the losses by offering buy 1 get 1 free offers or something in similar lines. However on average they will be in profit.There are many such companies working on similar models (Volume/Quality based) for example walmart, Dmart, Bata etc which have both online and offline stores.

3. "The two businesses are different"
From a statistical point of view there is not much difference. Each transaction is a data point for us and we can easily test the edge and define strategies to take advantage of it. For example, is there really much difference between trader trading onions on a ecommerce platform and a trader taking a F&O trade in equities. If one prefer then one can call the former commodity trading..