Day Trading Stocks & Futures

[vikas2131]

Being Data Geek, Couldnt Help to Look Into All Past Exit Polls for Only #NDA , Taking Their Poll Of Poll & Checking Accuracy!

In All Previous Exit Polls, It is Observed That Actual Results are Near the Outlier (1998,1999,2014) Or All Polls Go Wrong (2004,2009)

1998 Outlier - 249 Highest, Actual - 252
1999 Outlier - 300 Lowest, Actual - 296
2004 Outlier - 248 Lowest, Actual - 189
2009 Outlier - 177 Lowest, Actual - 159
2014 Outlier - 340 Highest, Actual - 336

Generally, Poll Of Polls Definitely Goes Wrong By 1 Std Dev of All Data.
Pollsters Either Underestimate Or Overestimate But They Are Never Right as a Whole Group.
Direction of Estimation Going Wrong Can't Be Found Out.
Outliers for 2019 are Chanakya (350) & Neta-NewsX (242)

Come 23rd May , Based On Exit Poll History Will Be Betting For #NDA Near 350 Or Below 240

Off Course, There is always first time event in Any Data Series So Poll of Poll at 305 can come True But Probability is Lower

NDA Aur UPA Walo, Picture Abhi Baki Hai

 

[TraderRavi]

Being Data Geek, Couldnt Help to Look Into All Past Exit Polls for Only #NDA , Taking Their Poll Of Poll & Checking Accuracy!

In All Previous Exit Polls, It is Observed That Actual Results are Near the Outlier (1998,1999,2014) Or All Polls Go Wrong (2004,2009)

1998 Outlier - 249 Highest, Actual - 252
1999 Outlier - 300 Lowest, Actual - 296
2004 Outlier - 248 Lowest, Actual - 189
2009 Outlier - 177 Lowest, Actual - 159
2014 Outlier - 340 Highest, Actual - 336

Generally, Poll Of Polls Definitely Goes Wrong By 1 Std Dev of All Data.
Pollsters Either Underestimate Or Overestimate But They Are Never Right as a Whole Group.
Direction of Estimation Going Wrong Can't Be Found Out.
Outliers for 2019 are Chanakya (350) & Neta-NewsX (242)

Come 23rd May , Based On Exit Poll History Will Be Betting For #NDA Near 350 Or Below 240

Off Course, There is always first time event in Any Data Series So Poll of Poll at 305 can come True But Probability is Lower

NDA Aur UPA Walo, Picture Abhi Baki Hai

if 350 comes then definitely Nifty 12000 on 23rd and if 240 comes then ................

 

[TraderRavi]

Is the exit poll euphoria here to stay?

The exit poll forecast has come as a big relief for stock market bulls, most of whom were expecting the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to scrape home.

The final numbers are awaited, but if they are in line with the exit poll trends share prices could rally some more as fence sitters too join the party.

But is it time to bet on a fundamental re-rating of Indian equities, or should one be more discerning?

The return of NDA will remove any lingering doubts about political uncertainty and investors would be justified to expect a continuity in policies. And yet, the moot question remains: is policy continuity in itself good enough to trigger a re-rating in the stark absence of strong earnings growth.

The 'Modi magic', unlike in 2014, may be short-lived as the market will soon be up against ground realities — weak corporate earnings and lack of enough levers with the government to reverse the situation in a hurry.

How did earnings fare between 2014 and 2019?

Let us rewind to May 2014; the market’s prayer for a stable government was answered. But earnings never kept pace with expectations. While nominal GDP grew at 11 percent compounded annually from 2014 to 2019, aggregate Nifty earnings grew only 3.7 percent. The earnings picture beyond the Nifty stocks was even more dismal. But that was no dampener for the stock market bulls, as the Nifty rose 9.6 percent compounded annually in the last five years.

At 19.8 times one-year forward earnings, the market today is a little more expensive compared to 17.2 times one-year forward earnings before the last election result in 2014. This shows that there is still a fair bit of optimism among investors.

Die-hard bulls will argue that the valuation is reasonable given the likelihood of over 20 percent growth in Nifty earnings in FY20. This is in stark contrast to the low to mid-single-digit earnings growth seen in the past many years.

But a closer look at projected FY20 Nifty earnings suggests that incremental growth in the current fiscal over the previous year is almost entirely driven by corporate lenders as provisions decline. If broader growth in the economy continues to be on a slow lane and global growth outlook remains tentative, a broad-based earnings recovery may remain a pipe dream for a while.

Can the new government wield a magic wand?

The priority for the next government will be to revive economic growth although the macroeconomic set-up is not very favourable. So far, going by the BJP manifesto, there is no hint of a drastically different economic policy, which can quickly salvage the situation.

India’s fiscal position has hardly improved over the past few years given growing demands on government budgets to support both consumption and investment. So, the room for fiscal support to revive growth is limited. The government needs to address few critical areas - surplus workforce in the agriculture sector, health of state-run undertakings and NBFCs, inadequate private sector investment and generating jobs for the millions entering the work force. Most of these issues are structural with no quick fix solution.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/b...-exit-poll-euphoria-here-to-stay-3999041.html

 

[andal]

Just for understanding purpose, can this be considered as triple bottom for Maruti Suzuki?

 

[vikas2131]

if 350 comes then definitely Nifty 12000 on 23rd and if 240 comes then ................

if we get further sell off tomorrow then expect NDA to be below majority

 

[TraderRavi]

if we get further sell off tomorrow then expect NDA to below majority

but nobody knows the real outcome including FIIs except TT's and exit polls indicating thumping victory for NDA. so no chance of sell off before 23rd IMO.

 

[monkeybusiness]

but nobody knows the real outcome including FIIs except TT's and exit polls indicating thumping victory for NDA. so no chance of sell off before 23rd IMO.

What is TT?
first alphabet of TraderRavi and Timepass

 

[siddhant4u]

What is TT?
first alphabet of TraderRavi and Timepass

TDP & TMC?
Tata Tele?

 

[soft_trader]

Above mentioned USDINR position closed @ 0.0025

Promised myself not to trade election result week, but after looking at the premium of May expiry options of strike 72CE and 68PE, couldn't control myself. Ended up shorting those two strikes (half of my usual qty though).

Added some qty yesterday at 68.5PE, 71.25CE, 71.5CE and shifted 72CE to 71.75CE.

Can't decide whether to keep the positions into the event or to close tomorrow.

 

[TraderRavi]

TDP & TMC?
Tata Tele?

Time Traveler