Day Trading Stocks & Futures
- Thread starter TraderRavi
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Crude Oil Price Action now turning Favorable – Good News for Indian Economy
Brent Crude price has come down to $74 from $86 over last one month just as the world is getting ready for Nov 04 Iran sanction deadline. As you know - The US plans to impose tough sanctions on Iran on Nov 04. The sanctions are designed to take Iran Oil supplies off the market completely. And any country or company that violates the sanctions risks complete isolation from the US economy. The Big question - then why the Oil has come off so sharply from the highs. Well, it seems the market is confident that the other member nations of OPEC will meet short fall in supplies. Saudi Arabia has already signalled this to the world. Add US supplies and slowing Chinese economy - it's not difficult to justify the big fall in Oil.
Here's the best news for Indian economy:
The US has broadly agreed to grant India a waiver from Iran sanctions, which would allow Indian oil to continue to import about 1.25 million tonnes of oil a month till March from Tehran
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Brent Crude Price Action
Brent Crude price action has shown strong trending activity over last many months with prices taking support at 200 dma and rallying. Quite interestingly - the price has come down to 200 dma. Brent Price as of now is $74
Now if the Trend sustains - one can expect a big bounce from 200 dma considering we are staring at sanction deadline. But WHAT IF - Brent Crude prices fail to take support at 200 dma and declines to $70. It will be a clear signal that Brent Price Action is transitioning from trending to Sideways to Bullish market
ne big risk for Indian economy lately has been runaway Oil prices but IF the Oil prices settles between $70 and $80 - it will not be difficult for Indian economy to adjust to these prices without sacrificing growth. Hence as Price Action watcher - Keep a close eye on Brent Crude prices because if the prices break down below 200 dma - it will create short term panic among Oil Bulls and it will be the best news for Indian economy and consumers. On the other hand - bounce from 200 dma will create some nervousness.
https://stateofthemarket.net/2018/1...rning-favorable-good-news-for-indian-economy/
Brent Crude price has come down to $74 from $86 over last one month just as the world is getting ready for Nov 04 Iran sanction deadline. As you know - The US plans to impose tough sanctions on Iran on Nov 04. The sanctions are designed to take Iran Oil supplies off the market completely. And any country or company that violates the sanctions risks complete isolation from the US economy. The Big question - then why the Oil has come off so sharply from the highs. Well, it seems the market is confident that the other member nations of OPEC will meet short fall in supplies. Saudi Arabia has already signalled this to the world. Add US supplies and slowing Chinese economy - it's not difficult to justify the big fall in Oil.
Here's the best news for Indian economy:
The US has broadly agreed to grant India a waiver from Iran sanctions, which would allow Indian oil to continue to import about 1.25 million tonnes of oil a month till March from Tehran
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Brent Crude Price Action
Brent Crude price action has shown strong trending activity over last many months with prices taking support at 200 dma and rallying. Quite interestingly - the price has come down to 200 dma. Brent Price as of now is $74
Now if the Trend sustains - one can expect a big bounce from 200 dma considering we are staring at sanction deadline. But WHAT IF - Brent Crude prices fail to take support at 200 dma and declines to $70. It will be a clear signal that Brent Price Action is transitioning from trending to Sideways to Bullish market
ne big risk for Indian economy lately has been runaway Oil prices but IF the Oil prices settles between $70 and $80 - it will not be difficult for Indian economy to adjust to these prices without sacrificing growth. Hence as Price Action watcher - Keep a close eye on Brent Crude prices because if the prices break down below 200 dma - it will create short term panic among Oil Bulls and it will be the best news for Indian economy and consumers. On the other hand - bounce from 200 dma will create some nervousness.
https://stateofthemarket.net/2018/1...rning-favorable-good-news-for-indian-economy/
Gold: After The 'Fear Trade'
Gold is a reactive market, not a leading one. It reacts to, among other things, the sentiment generated by the much larger debt market, currency market, and this month the stock market. The spike higher that occurred on October 11/18, was a 'fear-trade' resulting from the weakness in equities. Now that it is starting to look like "it was just a correction, not the end of capitalism", gold is going back to a more normal behavior. In this piece, we look at how gold is returning to its more usual correlations with the dollar, interest rates, and inflation expectations.
The Dollar
Long-term, gold has always had a strong negative correlation with the dollar. And as chart 1 highlights, the trading today in both the dollar and in gold is very similar to that of the 1998-2001 period. In the late-90s, the dollar had been trading in a range, and gold was carving out a wedge from which it broke lower as the dollar appreciated. The same is happening today with gold dropping out of a wedge as the dollar appreciates.
One thing that is different this time is that in 1999, as gold was dropping, the IMF suddenly restricted its gold sales which caused gold to shoot higher by nearly 30%, almost overnight. Gold immediately continued its fall, but from a much higher price. If the IMF had not done this, gold would likely have continued dropping at the same slope and ended up much lower. Since something like that is unlikely to occur today, we think gold will travel lower from here as the dollar continues to rise.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4216880-gold-fear-trade
Gold is a reactive market, not a leading one. It reacts to, among other things, the sentiment generated by the much larger debt market, currency market, and this month the stock market. The spike higher that occurred on October 11/18, was a 'fear-trade' resulting from the weakness in equities. Now that it is starting to look like "it was just a correction, not the end of capitalism", gold is going back to a more normal behavior. In this piece, we look at how gold is returning to its more usual correlations with the dollar, interest rates, and inflation expectations.
The Dollar
Long-term, gold has always had a strong negative correlation with the dollar. And as chart 1 highlights, the trading today in both the dollar and in gold is very similar to that of the 1998-2001 period. In the late-90s, the dollar had been trading in a range, and gold was carving out a wedge from which it broke lower as the dollar appreciated. The same is happening today with gold dropping out of a wedge as the dollar appreciates.
One thing that is different this time is that in 1999, as gold was dropping, the IMF suddenly restricted its gold sales which caused gold to shoot higher by nearly 30%, almost overnight. Gold immediately continued its fall, but from a much higher price. If the IMF had not done this, gold would likely have continued dropping at the same slope and ended up much lower. Since something like that is unlikely to occur today, we think gold will travel lower from here as the dollar continues to rise.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4216880-gold-fear-trade
50 Indian items face heat as US revokes duty-free privileges on import of 90 products
The federal register issued a notification, listing out 90 products which were so far subject to duty-free provisions under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP).
A count of these products indicated that at least 50 of them are from India. Notably India is the largest beneficiary of the GSP. In 2017, India's duty-free export to the US under the GSP was to the tune of more than USD 5.6 billion.
The volume of India's export to the US impacted by the latest move of the Trump administration is not known yet, but the list of products from which duty-free import provision has been removed reflects that a large number of small and medium size business could be impacted, in particular handloom and agricultural sector.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/b...vileges-on-import-of-90-products-3115891.html
The federal register issued a notification, listing out 90 products which were so far subject to duty-free provisions under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP).
A count of these products indicated that at least 50 of them are from India. Notably India is the largest beneficiary of the GSP. In 2017, India's duty-free export to the US under the GSP was to the tune of more than USD 5.6 billion.
The volume of India's export to the US impacted by the latest move of the Trump administration is not known yet, but the list of products from which duty-free import provision has been removed reflects that a large number of small and medium size business could be impacted, in particular handloom and agricultural sector.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/b...vileges-on-import-of-90-products-3115891.html
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