6666 on NIFTY and 22222 on sensex in 2011 Possible??????

[praveen taneja]

I wonder who will win the world cup... Indian team has a dream combination and are most likely to lift the cup...but that's on paper. what really matters is how they are performing on the field. Likewise where Nifty heading depends on the liquidity scenario. The sudden 1000 point fall was not because there was a mad rush to get out. It was because no one wanted to buy. The fii net sell figure rarely touched 1000 cr in the last 2 months. What we saw in the last crash of 2008 was the sell-at-any-price panic. This time we are seeing a different kind of market. Lack of buying interest.

A total of 29 billion dollars was needed to lift nifty from 5300 to 6300. 1.5 billion dollar outflow has undone all the good work, leaving the other 27.5 billion stuck at very high levels. Most of the money spread across midcaps and small caps are at nifty 4500 levels already and the loss is too huge for any foreign portfolio manager to bear. No matter how good the growth story is, if your investment goes down by 50% then they are not going to average their losses by buying more. They dont want a reason to remain invested any more. They just want to take their money out, since no one is buying so they are stuck.

Another bubble is the fed interest rate that is waiting to burst. Borrow money at 1% and make investment in EM for a return of 12-18% was a dream that got shattered in this fall. Now imagine if the cost of the fund goes up. That is a disaster scenario waiting to happen.

My opinion is there is a lot more pain left in the system. Trapped people want a way out not a way in. Nifty rallied from 2200 to 6350 in 2 years Its time to give some points back... India growth story hasnt really changed that much from 2006 to 2011. It was the market participants sentiments that has been damaged this time again...

Bro I appreciate ur vast knowledge on mkt but what about DTC and the growing MF and other institutions????
even in this fall in which most people saying so and so happen do u think FII and other DII are invested in dump ????
NPS insuance and MF sector getting 7000 crore + per month so far without DTC when it come into force everything would start looking better
Fed chief last week warned US banks of get ready for another recession BUT is that mean they would just start crying and make arrangement for recession like getting lots of loan to settle when Govt announce pay half and settle like most of people in India DO????
No Bro my little knowldge suggest that they would now start reviving EM mkts so that they can pull slowly there money out so nothing goes wrong and stop falling in recession
Obama Debt plan is proof of that Fed is not going to hurt that plan
As I have alredy written You have Vast knowledge and I live in dreams of my own so my chance of going wrong are more Kyonki body to nahin DIL to Batcha Hai

 

[linkon7]

Bro I appreciate ur vast knowledge on mkt but what about DTC and the growing MF and other institutions????
even in this fall in which most people saying so and so happen do u think FII and other DII are invested in dump ????
NPS insuance and MF sector getting 7000 crore + per month so far without DTC when it come into force everything would start looking better
Fed chief last week warned US banks of get ready for another recession BUT is that mean they would just start crying and make arrangement for recession like getting lots of loan to settle when Govt announce pay half and settle like most of people in India DO????
No Bro my little knowldge suggest that they would now start reviving EM mkts so that they can pull slowly there money out so nothing goes wrong and stop falling in recession
Obama Debt plan is proof of that Fed is not going to hurt that plan
As I have alredy written You have Vast knowledge and I live in dreams of my own so my chance of going wrong are more Kyonki body to nahin DIL to Batcha Hai

My point was with perceived valuations. Investors are buyers who want value for their money. Its like an auction where stocks are sold and valuations are determined by the buyers.

Chris Gayle, Saurav Ganguly, brian lara are very big and talented players. they still rank far far better than many of the the IPL's 110 players that will play this season. But the selectors didnt find value in them. We can argue about their ability and why they deserve to be in the IPL but people who matter are not willing to put their money in them.

Problem is, Nifty / sensex Weightage is controlled by just handful of stocks. This disguises the broader market's damage. If you scan the top 200 stocks, you'll be surprised to find how many stocks are at 52 week low. That damage is not reflected in the 15% drop in nifty / sensex.

Relinfra ka price RIIL ho gaya...

RILL ka price Relcap ho gaya...

rpower ka price rcom ho gaya...

Rcom ka price rnrl ho gaya....

aur rnrl gayab hogaya....

 

[praveen taneja]

My point was with perceived valuations. Investors are buyers who want value for their money. Its like an auction where stocks are sold and valuations are determined by the buyers.

Chris Gayle, Saurav Ganguly, brian lara are very big and talented players. they still rank far far better than many of the the IPL's 110 players that will play this season. But the selectors didnt find value in them. We can argue about their ability and why they deserve to be in the IPL but people who matter are not willing to put their money in them.

Problem is, Nifty / sensex Weightage is controlled by just handful of stocks. This disguises the broader market's damage. If you scan the top 200 stocks, you'll be surprised to find how many stocks are at 52 week low. That damage is not reflected in the 15% drop in nifty / sensex.

Relinfra ka price RIIL ho gaya...

RILL ka price Relcap ho gaya...

rpower ka price rcom ho gaya...

Rcom ka price rnrl ho gaya....

aur rnrl gayab hogaya....[/QUOTE]

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

Aur hamara Linkon bhai Shayar Ho gayaaa

 

[praveen taneja]

Libya, Bahrain ratings cut ...As per analyst middle east will hit india.. Not on index but on individual cos. As many cos have exposure to middle east . ANd situation is spreading and escalating to other countries too. We might see one time inflow . But steady inflow from middle east to india (which is one of the biggest) from nri will slow down

 

[Vector]

Personal wealth would have already flown to Swiss accounts.:lol:

 

[praveen taneja]

No brother that is not a safe heaven now better is Dubai Nowadays

 

[columbus]

Libya, Bahrain ratings cut ...As per analyst middle east will hit india.. Not on index but on individual cos. As many cos have exposure to middle east . ANd situation is spreading and escalating to other countries too. We might see one time inflow . But steady inflow from middle east to india (which is one of the biggest) from nri will slow down

Another problem to middle east is here:
http://profit.ndtv.com/news/show/uk...l-cost-rs-14-litre-138580?pfrom=home-Business

 

[linkon7]

For the believers of 22000 sensex this is the perfect time to buy...
we are right at the trendline...

But just 1 day of mayhem..must have changed all the sentiments. now those believers will wait for 5600 to get in or may find a new reason to stay away. crude touching 100$, FII delivery based selling 2700+ cr in a single day... deficit going high... so many reason not to buy.

without buyers... the only hope is people stop selling...! No one knows for sure where the next 100 point is going to come from. But incase it comes in the south direction... then there will be a lot more pain...

 

[rajeabc]

Linkon,

Thanks for underful chart. I think we will go till 4800-4700 level by March 2011 End.

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[2021]

funny thing is no one asked about prediction for 6/7000 but 4500 requires explanation :annoyed::lol:

Market runs on sentiments and sentiments need explanation. Tomorrow if there is rise of 200 points on nifty and there are some unprecidented announcement on budget every chartist and analyst will talk about 6000-7000. Though till today closing all will agree on below 5000. This sentiment and prejudgement lead to be on wrong foot always.