6666 on NIFTY and 22222 on sensex in 2011 Possible??????

[sanjosedesi]

The nice thing is if you only give me a chart, and let me plot my indicators on it, and you hide the name of the market, I will tell you which way it is headed and where it will end up with very good accuracy.

Remind me to try this sometime ;-) But it is not the same thing.

Anyway, I have seen some of your good posts which 2020 also alluded to. However, I am newbie so let me watch for some more time and see what I can learn from y'all.

My point in the first post re SBI pricing was that it is all subjective. There are many factors which contribute to a point ... global state of economy, india state of economy, sector state, company news, twitter feeds and on top of that all this technical analysis causing almost automated buys and sells. There is no way you can justify a price. You can just try to predict its next move, and even then it can surprise you many many times.

 

[linkon7]

I wonder who will win the world cup... Indian team has a dream combination and are most likely to lift the cup...but that's on paper. what really matters is how they are performing on the field. Likewise where Nifty heading depends on the liquidity scenario. The sudden 1000 point fall was not because there was a mad rush to get out. It was because no one wanted to buy. The fii net sell figure rarely touched 1000 cr in the last 2 months. What we saw in the last crash of 2008 was the sell-at-any-price panic. This time we are seeing a different kind of market. Lack of buying interest.

A total of 29 billion dollars was needed to lift nifty from 5300 to 6300. 1.5 billion dollar outflow has undone all the good work, leaving the other 27.5 billion stuck at very high levels. Most of the money spread across midcaps and small caps are at nifty 4500 levels already and the loss is too huge for any foreign portfolio manager to bear. No matter how good the growth story is, if your investment goes down by 50% then they are not going to average their losses by buying more. They dont want a reason to remain invested any more. They just want to take their money out, since no one is buying so they are stuck.

Another bubble is the fed interest rate that is waiting to burst. Borrow money at 1% and make investment in EM for a return of 12-18% was a dream that got shattered in this fall. Now imagine if the cost of the fund goes up. That is a disaster scenario waiting to happen.

My opinion is there is a lot more pain left in the system. Trapped people want a way out not a way in. Nifty rallied from 2200 to 6350 in 2 years Its time to give some points back... India growth story hasnt really changed that much from 2006 to 2011. It was the market participants sentiments that has been damaged this time again...

 

[timepass]

The nice thing is if you only give me a chart, and let me plot my indicators on it, and you hide the name of the market, I will tell you which way it is headed and where it will end up with very good accuracy.

You may know your charts, brother, but you don't know Indian mentality - we are experts at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and we are also capable of being the least fancied but ultimate world cup champions (1983).. Nifty may inflate to beyond 6600 just to thumb its nose at you :clap:.

Now, Mr. Mininifty, you have seen that markets behave funny.. quite often all the bad news is digested without even a hiccup and nifty marches on. All these scams and bad news were happening when we had five straight upmove sessions, didn't we? or that was a dead cat bounce? I doubt if any dead cats can bounce 2.5%.

Tomorrow, if UPA breaks up, will the markets hit lower circuit 2 days running ? or even 1 day? Or will the markets rejoice ?

Bhaiya long term nifty movements etc are all for big people with big long schlongs .. er.. positions.. For a small guy it is best to either take small profits / losses (shoot and scoot) or give the big boys (mutual funds etc) to manage and hope for the best.

As to the general state of the economy, I know that the rupee is buying lesser and lesser every day, the freshers are able to get reasonable employment, experienced ones are afraid to ask for hikes for the fear of getting fired, MLM schemes are becoming more popular (self-employment mentality instead of MNC), that the "marketing executive" jobs are not back in full force as they were in 2006-2009 period. Go figure :annoyed:

 

[Sultaan]

funny thing is no one asked about prediction for 6/7000 but 4500 requires explanation :annoyed::lol:

 

[timepass]

funny thing is no one asked about prediction for 6/7000 but 4500 requires explanation :annoyed::lol:

Nothing funny about it. Praveen calls himself Tukka trader but everyone knows otherwise. This thread is just this bugger's way of reverse-engineering

 

[4xpipcounter]

Pardon one element of my diatribe, as I did not want it to come out wrong. In mentioning my accuracy if all I was given was a chart without the name of the market, etc, my point was that a sound TA methodology can be used on any market. I did not want to sound like I was just blowing off my mouth.
Just as an example, I have even put my methodology to work on predicting the local weather.
The only reason I do such things is to further add proof to my methodology and in talking about it, it helps to keep me sharp. It's just a way of staying on top of the markets, and keeping an edge any way I can.
BTW, I'm glad you are getting good from what you read from my posts.


21;525771]The said example can be taken as pinch of salt. My point as specific and given example in general was market needs an excuse to make or break. I'm of the view that market is supreme and it flows where it wants to. And as for guesses being whatever I can make of I'm not convinced with the levels in recent times and even now and not that I'm one of 90% who missed the rally from 3600 to 6300 those desperately wants market to fall. I'm not TA or FA who can read charts or balance sheets but yes I can make out if price is justifiable or not. Since I'm not good in putting in words I'll again put an example - knowing price et al of TCS and Hero Honda I'll be comfortable buying TCS instead of Hero Honda. As world ecomony rise and as our rupee becomes weak and as buying power of Indians is seeing a change I'll be buying a 52 week high TCS instead of near to 52 week low HH. Just an example that price is not necessarily justificable when it comes to buying a stock or taming market. But yes any excuse can make or break prices. Remember Honda giving up stake and 15% bounce in 15 miuntes of trade?

@ 4pips, I'm one of your silent follower. I login daily and search all your posts, keep those data and figures in note pad and work accodingly. Off-late (as you started to discuss nifty just recently) I'm sure all those who followed you know how acurate are you![/QUOTE]

 

[4xpipcounter]

With a name like yours, I was wondering if you were from San Jose, Cailf. in the US.
SJD, my comment sounded far-fetched. I'm sure that what you have running through your mind is how can someone predict a market without a knowledge of all the fundamental information you mentioned.
Mt answer would be that my methodology is not depended on any fundamental information whatsoever. I see the markets only through the eyes of the charts that incorporate the ichimoku cloud, my proprietary S&R's, stochastics, and TL's. I'm not trying to sound cocky, but there is nothing else I need to know. I forecast markets I don't trade intentionally to prove to me how effective my methodology is. Even though I am highly confident in what I do, I need to do whatever I can to keep the winning edge.
I'm not saying mine is right and everyone else's is wrong. Mine is right for me, and if you have one that is winning consistently for you, then it is right for you.
BTW, you're on the right track. In consideration of how new you are, you are doing the right thing in coming to a forum like this one and just observing. There is also much to learn from such threads as the Bollinger Bands, a direct series someone is doing on the ichimoku cloud, etc. Hopefully this will be a nice gathering area for you to form your ideas and put together a winning methodology.
Also, I'm not pandering to anyone, but I am impressed with the quality of individuals this forum has attracted. People are ready and willing to answer questions, and carry on with helpful dialogues.

Remind me to try this sometime ;-) But it is not the same thing.

Anyway, I have seen some of your good posts which 2020 also alluded to. However, I am newbie so let me watch for some more time and see what I can learn from y'all.

My point in the first post re SBI pricing was that it is all subjective. There are many factors which contribute to a point ... global state of economy, india state of economy, sector state, company news, twitter feeds and on top of that all this technical analysis causing almost automated buys and sells. There is no way you can justify a price. You can just try to predict its next move, and even then it can surprise you many many times.

 

[4xpipcounter]

LOL, I better root for India if I know what's good for me.
Timepass, I couldn't agree with you more. I could be wrong. There are no guarantees in the speculative markets. This is why they are called speculative, and why you need a method of trading to speculate them by.
I'll promise you this. When I am wrong (I'm human. I'm wrong occasionally.), you will never need to twist my arm to get me to admit it. Having said that, I totally missed the GBP/USD last week, and freely admitted it.
BTW, Nifty might inflate to 6000, but it won't be thumbing its nose at me. I'm nobody--lol. I just love what I do. I have none of money vested in Nifty, so it won't have to worry.
Excellent points, and I've taken them well.

You may know your charts, brother, but you don't know Indian mentality - we are experts at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and we are also capable of being the least fancied but ultimate world cup champions (1983).. Nifty may inflate to beyond 6600 just to thumb its nose at you :clap:.

Now, Mr. Mininifty, you have seen that markets behave funny.. quite often all the bad news is digested without even a hiccup and nifty marches on. All these scams and bad news were happening when we had five straight upmove sessions, didn't we? or that was a dead cat bounce? I doubt if any dead cats can bounce 2.5%.

Tomorrow, if UPA breaks up, will the markets hit lower circuit 2 days running ? or even 1 day? Or will the markets rejoice ?

Bhaiya long term nifty movements etc are all for big people with big long schlongs .. er.. positions.. For a small guy it is best to either take small profits / losses (shoot and scoot) or give the big boys (mutual funds etc) to manage and hope for the best.

As to the general state of the economy, I know that the rupee is buying lesser and lesser every day, the freshers are able to get reasonable employment, experienced ones are afraid to ask for hikes for the fear of getting fired, MLM schemes are becoming more popular (self-employment mentality instead of MNC), that the "marketing executive" jobs are not back in full force as they were in 2006-2009 period. Go figure :annoyed:

 

[sanjosedesi]

With a name like yours, I was wondering if you were from San Jose, Cailf. in the US.

Don't worry about explaining yourself. I am starting to get familiar with some of the names and where they come from. Finally the comments explain themselves ...

SJD ... yes it means SJ, California but more in the sense (now that I think of it) that it implies the neighboring area served by that airport (SJC). I lived in SJ for less than a year. But that's the "area" I spent most of my life outside of my home town.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Wow! I need to get your autograph. I lived 41 years in Sacramento. I did a lot of work in San Jose, Gilroy, and San Martin. A part of me is still in California, but I'm still happy here in Ohio with the wife, 14 grandchildren, and Tucker (In the pic.).

Don't worry about explaining yourself. I am starting to get familiar with some of the names and where they come from. Finally the comments explain themselves ...

SJD ... yes it means SJ, California but more in the sense (now that I think of it) that it implies the neighboring area served by that airport (SJC). I lived in SJ for less than a year. But that's the "area" I spent most of my life outside of my home town.