You are right! We have just met, but I have been a silent spectator in all your ichimoku forums since I heard about ichimoku! Since you are trading in the USDJPY and other currencies which are not available in India, I cannot gain any knowledge from there (like backtesting, analysis ... etc).
I have been following the candlestick patterns till I learnt the new strategies like 315 (proficient) and ichimoku (beginner). So old habits never die! I still look at the candles and try to understand what it is telling me.
Though there are strategies, I sometimes rely on RSI, MACD and candlestick patterns to understand where the price is moving. But then you are right, I have shorted stocks when RSI was 90+ and still seen the price overshooting and making me exit in loss.
You are cent percent right on this! I do not trade much on news either, but then when I see technical trends and take it, the trade sometimes goes in the wrong direction and finally a few days later you see some news that was the reason for which the technical trend was invalidated. I just referred to that point. Obviously, there will be big bulls who knows technical trends like the back of their hand, and they also know that there are minnows who will be trading using this technical trend and try to take us out here!
The trend was validated by a Bullish harami. So if you had gone long the next day, you would have gained 3 to 4 points based on this pattern alone. This does not determine the short term trend or the long term trend. It only determines what you can do the next day or the day after till you get a signal that says "Enough is enough, now wait for another signal".
I did some intraday trades but not based on any of the above points. I just felt a hunch to do it looking at the candles and did it.
All in all, since there was a post on the stock which I was watching, I thought to add some of my points. But know what, I came to know new strategies by sharing this. I was referring to the bearish Wolfe Wave. Got to check this out now! Thanks!:thumb: