vijkris's Trading Record and PnL

[vijkris]

Hi,
in this read only thread i ll record and post my Pnl.
trades will be taken with the help of a proprietary afl.

Inspired by Lonewolf , Copypasteae and timepass bro :thumb:

will update this thread whenever i find time.

 

[vijkris]

A good start in this month.

Today broke many rules resulting in deep red.
I should not take mcx trades today as per rule. if I break it then will edit this post and excel again.

 

[vijkris]

hi,
few changes has happened since the previous post here.
1. my primary net connection Reliance netconnect started giving no signal as they upgraded themselves to 4g. my cdma dongle and 3gb unused data went into trash! :annoyed:

2. while searching for new ISP i started afl backtesting. i don know how but my stress levels increased enormously, lost 3 kg wt also. :lol:

3. so took almost more than a month absence from trading/backtesting, social media etc. had quality time with family. :rofl:

4. in the meantime internet issue got partially solved.

hi dsm ji,
thanks to this post of yours, I understood that cable broadbands is faster than wireless ones.
finally ditched reliance netconnect+ as it was not getting upgraded to 4g.

got YOU BB , 100Mbps ,400gb data for 3months, total charges 2033 .
this is the speed test results.

i just remembered dsm ji's email to tata fellows in which it was discovered that speed depends on the cables. i opted for 100mbps but was getting upto 70 mbps. then realised that it must have been the limitation of router. so did an experiment and connected the wire directly to lan port of desktop. this is the result:

:rofl:

i m getting great speeds and consistant net quality as nest is not getting disconnected even for a sec, but net is lost when there is powercut. it seems the junction box needs power to run.
so backup net has become extremely important.

will post my updated trading plan as there was good amount of learning in the brief backtesting period.

 

[vijkris]

Hope will start posting in this thread soon.
Due to unexpected pc failure, lost many afls and the above excel file. :annoyed:

Still no worries, will create the file/template again. :thumb:

Right now wanted to store some of the beautiful suggestions, which will be buried in General Thread.

I had started an SIP to be bought on 28th of every month (thinking of expiry etc.), but then I realised that it is better to do it manually, i.e. have a monthly goal of investment for e.g. 20000, buy some or whole of this on a day when nifty falls more than 100points before 3pm.
Note down NAV of the bought units with date and closing Nifty spot level (of the purchase date), so as to have a rough reference.
That's how I am managing it now. Its not the best way to time the market, also you don't need to time it considering most things in terms of returns will even out over a period of 5-7 years (which should be your minimum time goal).
Just because we are monitoring the markets daily, we can do it this way instead of an arbitrary date.

Vivek

Below is the personal advice given to me, its edited..

If not SIP, manually invest in MF, every month when ever their is 100+ point fall
In nifty
Before 3pm on day of fall.

when you are following the market every day, better to handle it manually than SIP on a fixed date,then I asked about the cut off time, so that we get nav of that very day
3pm

What you should do is register on their site and generate a folio no., don't buy anything just yet, buy on day of fall when it occurs, after you have a folio no. You can buy on any day, any no. of times, in an instant paying through net banking
Folio no. Will remain the same

Keep on adding more units

I plot monthly candlestick bars of Nifty spot on the chart. When current monthly bar's close is lower than previous monthly bar, then I invest Rs.10000. If not, I invest Rs.5000. This part is easy.

The exit part is tricky. If the profit on total holdings shows more than 15% I exit 33% of holdings irrespective of prevailing PE ratio. The exited funds are then moved to liquid funds until PE ratio falls below 18. I start a SIP out of liquid funds in similar fashion as above. This SIP is in addition to normal SIP.

Some stuff I've learned along the way that revolutionized my trading.

1) The best loser is the only winner in the market.

2) If you trade for money, you will never make it.

3) It's better to assume that the trade you're going to make is a loss and prepare accordingly rather than assuming that it will be a profit and getting disappointed.

4) Contrary to what most people think, your emotions aren't your enemy. It's a sign that something is wrong.

Hope I added something of value.

 

[vijkris]

Untill i make a serious effort in record keeping my trades, i will use this thread to store/post only things which i feel is very important and prevent those posts from getting buried elsewhere

So here i am posting simple obv method..

Summary of the Method :

Timeframe: 1 minute only.

Buy Setup: Wait for both Price and OBV to come on the same side of 200 ema.
Fresh Cross of obv above its 200 ema is preferred.

SL: Pivot low below 36 ema(price).

Short Setup: Wait for both Price and OBV to come on the same side of 200 ema.
Fresh Cross of obv below its 200 ema is preferred.

SL: Pivot high above 36 ema(price).

Re-entry/adds: long eg: When price touches or crosses below 36 ema and again comes back above 36 ema, then buy at the break of last pivot high which was made before the touch/cross.

Thanks for reading!!!

_________________________________________________________________

Introduction :

It is a trend trading method which uses price and On Balance Volume indicator.

Tools required :
1. Price chart- candles/bar/line chart.
2. EMA on Price : 200EMA and 36 EMA both are compulsory.
3. OBV indicator in separate pane.
4. 200EMA overlayed on OBV is compulsory.
5. 36 EMA overlayed on OBV is optional.

Timeframe : 1 min only.

Basic Principle : Ok, According to VarunKochar ji, we have to be on the dominant side always while trading.
So EMA 200 on PRICE and EMA 200 on OBV is that border which decides which side is dominating.

We are mere followers, not leaders. So simply we will change our loyalty according to the situation.

IF price and obv is above 200 ema, All Hail bull brothers !!!
No matter what, we will wait for long opportunity or else SOH.

IF price and OBV is below ema 200, bear brothers ki Jai Ho!!!
No matter what, we will wait for SHORT opportunity or else SOH.

36ema :
36 ema overlaid on price is compulsory, as it gives us adds/reentry or profit taking levels.
36ema overlaid on OBV is optional. It can be used only when there is established trend and 200 ema is far away.

Entry Setup : Valid for both long and short.

1. OBV crossed 200 ema. Price also crossed 200 ema .
Both crosses can happen simultaneously or there may be delay, but wait for both to come in the same side.

2. Buy : Last/recent pivot break above 36 ema. i mean the previous pivot should have formed above 36 ema.
SL = Last pivot low below 36 ema..
Target = Since this entry happens in good trending scenario, atleast keep 1:2 or use trailing stop method.

3. Short: Last/recent pivot break below 36 ema. I mean the previous pivot should have formed below 36 ema.
SL = Last pivot high above 36 ema.
Target = Since this entry happens in good trending scenario, atleast keep 1:2 or use trailing stop method.

Note: Sometimes 200 ema is not touched for days even in 1tf. So at that time, only 36 ema is used for entry.

2nd Best entry setup: Sometimes it does happen that in pivot break above/below 36 ema has already happened but price and obv comes to one side later.
At that time usually vertical bars can be seen.
So instead of chasing the price, wait for "aggressive pivot" to form or wait for pullback to 36 ema and enter at pivot break above/below 36 ema.

SL, target is same as above.

Re-entry/add: When price touches or crosses above/below 36 ema and crossses back up above the last pivot high/low before making the touch.

Conclusion : No method is perfect. Each one has its own strengths and weaknesses.
In case of reversal or tuk tuk, it is prone to whipsaws..
Key to survival is Large capital and robust risk management.

Thanks for reading !!

Long signal in crude..

Rule 3. Trade only after breach of last pivot above/bellow 200 EMA.

Some more charts.

 

[vijkris]

So, this was the situation:

Confidance upar uthane wala trade. :thumb:

Got 1:6. but because i already finished my daily quota of 5 trades and was already down by -1.5% , risked only 0.25%.
$hit, while writing now i realised i should have risked 0.5 %, as 1.5+0.25 = 1.75, not 2.00

I have to improve in mathematics.. i m calculating my position size incorrectly.

This was the reply i got from rj sir..:thumb:

Take a new notebook on the first page write ur trading plan ie ur entry rules exit rules risk per trade max trades per day from next page onwards make columns date scripname entry price exit price stoploss no of lots profit/loss risk/reward.upate each of ur trades in the columns regularly .also before the start of each trading day read ur first page trading plan atleast once. All this wont take much time but will help u in improving ur trading a lot(no excel stuff hardcore writing in book).

My further reply..

hmmm.. making columns.. utna neatness girls maintain karte hai..

i m posting the real pic of my notebook, which i started updating since yday..

If anyone is able to understand the handwriting.. congrats..!!! :clapping:

the mtm column was written after my last trade got over. if i would have written it from the beginning then i would have got idea roughly hum kitna drawdown me the.

Now the task is to write down trading rules properly in first page, so that i can read it daily and also have to maintain colulmns. :thumb:

 

[vijkris]

To prevent these afls and explanations from getting buried, am again using this thread. :lol:

For all those who are not finding the afl's as per happy bhai posts..refer below

On Price Pane

1) Ribbon for breakout on 15 minutes Hi/Lo of Price
2) Ribbon for breakout on 15 minutes Hi/Lo of OBV

_SECTION_BEGIN("Price Hi Lo"); 

HiP= HHV(H,15); LoP= LLV(L,15); 

B2 = Cross(C,Ref(HiP,-1)); S2 = Cross(Ref(LoP,-1),C); 

B2 = ExRem(B2,S2); S2 = ExRem(S2,B2); 

UP2 = Flip(B2,S2); DN2 = Flip(S2,B2); 

Plot(40,"",IIf(UP2,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnSca le|styleNoLabel|styleThick,0,200,0,-5,8); 
//Plot(4,"",IIf(UP2,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnScal e|styleNoLabel|styleNoLine|styleDots,0,200); 
//Plot(2,"",IIf(UP1,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnScal e|styleNoLabel|styleNoLine|styleDots,0,200); 
_SECTION_END();

_SECTION_BEGIN("OBV Hi Lo"); 
Ob = OBV(); Hi = HHV(Ob,15); Lo = LLV(Ob,15); 

B1 = Cross(Ob,Ref(Hi,-1)); S1 = Cross(Ref(Lo,-1),Ob); 

B1 = ExRem(B1,S1); S1 = ExRem(S1,B1); 

UP1 = Flip(B1,S1); DN1 = Flip(S1,B1); 

Plot(40,"",IIf(UP1,colorBlue,colorRed),style OwnScale|styleNoLabel|styleThick,0,500,0,-5,8); 
//Plot(4,"",IIf(UP2,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnScal e|styleNoLabel|styleNoLine|styleDots,0,200); 
//Plot(2,"",IIf(UP1,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnScal e|styleNoLabel|styleNoLine|styleDots,0,200); 
_SECTION_END();

On OBV pane

1) Ribbon Showing breakout combination (Both Price & OBV) on 15 Bars
2) Ribbon Showing breakout combination (Both Price & OBV) on 30 Bars
3) Ribbon Showing breakout combination (Both Price & OBV) on 60 Bars

//================================================== ================================================== =======================
GraphXSpace=5;
_SECTION_BEGIN("On Balance Volume");
Ob = OBV();	e36 = EMA(Ob,36);	e200 = EMA(Ob,200);
Plot(Ob,"",colorWhite,styleNoTitle|styleThick);
Plot(0,"",colorWhite,styleNoLabel|styleNoRescale|s tyleDashed,0,0,5,-5);
Plot(e200,"",colorBrightGreen,styleNoLabel|styleNo Rescale);
Plot(e36, "",colorGold,styleNoLabel|styleNoRescale|styleDash ed);
_SECTION_END();


_SECTION_BEGIN("OBV & Price Hi Lo Breaks");
Ob = OBV();
H15 = HHV(Ob,15);	L15 = LLV(Ob,15);	B1 = Cross(Ob,Ref(H15,-1));	S1 = Cross(Ref(L15,-1),Ob);
H30 = HHV(Ob,30);	L30 = LLV(Ob,30);	B2 = Cross(Ob,Ref(H30,-1));	S2 = Cross(Ref(L30,-1),Ob);
H60 = HHV(Ob,60);	L60 = LLV(Ob,60);	B3 = Cross(Ob,Ref(H60,-1));	S3 = Cross(Ref(L60,-1),Ob);

B1 = ExRem(B1,S1);	S1 = ExRem(S1,B1);	UP1 = Flip(B1,S1);	DN1 = Flip(S1,B1);
B2 = ExRem(B2,S2);	S2 = ExRem(S2,B2);	UP2 = Flip(B2,S2);	DN2 = Flip(S2,B2);
B3 = ExRem(B3,S3);	S3 = ExRem(S3,B3);	UP3 = Flip(B3,S3);	DN3 = Flip(S3,B3);

P15 = HHV(H,15);	Q15 = LLV(L,15);	X1 = Cross(C,Ref(P15,-1));	Y1 = Cross(Ref(Q15,-1),C);
P30 = HHV(H,30);	Q30 = LLV(L,30);	X2 = Cross(C,Ref(P30,-1));	Y2 = Cross(Ref(Q30,-1),C);
P60 = HHV(H,60);	Q60 = LLV(L,60);	X3 = Cross(C,Ref(P60,-1));	Y3 = Cross(Ref(Q60,-1),C);

X1 = ExRem(X1,Y1);	Y1 = ExRem(Y1,X1);	LG1 = Flip(X1,Y1);	SH1 = Flip(Y1,X1);
X2 = ExRem(X2,Y2);	Y2 = ExRem(Y2,X2);	LG2 = Flip(X2,Y2);	SH2 = Flip(Y2,X2);
X3 = ExRem(X3,Y3);	Y3 = ExRem(Y3,X3);	LG3 = Flip(X3,Y3);	SH3 = Flip(Y3,X3);

B15 = UP1 AND LG1;	S15 = DN1 AND SH1;
B30 = UP2 AND LG2;	S30 = DN2 AND SH2;
B60 = UP3 AND LG3;	S60 = DN3 AND SH3;

B15 = ExRem(B15,S15);	S15 = ExRem(S15,B15);	UP15 = Flip(B15,S15);	DN15 = Flip(S15,B15);
B30 = ExRem(B30,S30);	S30 = ExRem(S30,B30);	UP30 = Flip(B30,S30);	DN30 = Flip(S30,B30);
B60 = ExRem(B60,S60);	S60 = ExRem(S60,B60);	UP60 = Flip(B60,S60);	DN60 = Flip(S60,B60);

Plot(30,"",IIf(UP15,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnSc ale|styleNoLabel|styleThick,0,500,0,0,3);
Plot(20,"",IIf(UP30,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnSc ale|styleNoLabel|styleThick,0,500,0,0,3);
Plot(10,"",IIf(UP60,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnSc ale|styleNoLabel|styleThick,0,500,0,0,3);

Title = "Varun's OBV & Price Breakout Ribbons, Topmost: 15 Minutes, Lowest: 60 Minutes & Middle 30 Minutes";
_SECTION_END();
//================================================== ================================================== =======================

Little bit of theory:

Thanks. Now let me tell you why i wanted ribbons arranged this way. We only need the 2 ribbons in price pane to initiate the trade. We need the 60min. OBV ribbon to qualify the trade. And moreover all the OBV based ribbons should be in OBV Pane. There you can see foryourself in real time the OBV action(Higher highs or higher lows) and its impact on the ribbons.

I find everybody is after the AFL for this system. The AFL is not the holy grail. Pls try to understand the logic behind this method(or any other method) and you can achieve the same with your observation too. Sure it helps immensely when it is automated. The objective is we want to take BO/BD trades supported by both price and volumes. (So you have better odds). The filter is the 60 period OBV ribbon. (Because i have observed as a thumbrule that the hourly BO in OBV are more lasting (leading to a tradeable trend) and true.

By looking for opportunities i meant the trades which the system generates not discretionary. I hope you followed this point.
Let me frame the rules again.
Rule 1) The primary trade deciding ribbon is the 60min. OBV ribbon. (Red for taking shorts and Blue for taking longs). You only have to take the trades in the direction as governed by this ribbon always.
Rule 2) You take the trade when both 15min Price and OBV are the same colour as the 60min.OBV.
That is all. Keep it simple. Profit levels can be guided by your reasonable greed levels or trailed.

So when 60min. OBV ribbon is red, short the market when both 15min price and OBV ribbon become red. Keep following this only till 60min. OBV is in red. Vice versa for blue scenario.

When trend turns red in all bands then you donot avoid shorting. You avoid long trades.

Somebody had asked about the relevance of 30min ribbon. Well 30min is for comparison. The trend is stronger when you get a change in colour in both15min and 30min ribbon simultaneously and it is strongest when all 3 ribbons change colour (simultaneously). You can just corelate these findings with a few charts on your own. Just explore as many charts as possible with this system so that you can get a hang of it. Moreover you will see all 3 ribbons change colour simultaneously in the case of a selloff, when volumes come down quickly or during good breakouts when sudden buying happens.

Ok, so here goes . . .

Its Varun's concept that a breakout of last 15 Minutes High/Low on OBV levels indicates an change in trend

Also if a break happens around the same time on price, it gives extra confirmation . . .

So we look for Breakout on both Price and OBV (separately one by one)

As soon as one happens (OBV/Price) we start look for other and when we get that we change the color of the ribbon . . .

So a blue ribbon color indicates that an upside breakout has happened . . . (on both one followed by other)
and a Red color indicates and downside BO has occurred . . . (on both one followed by other)

As with all BO/BDs failures will happen, the ribbon does not monitor or bother about all that

A trader has to make a note of this aspect,
with the ribbon we are reducing the information to the minimum (on/off)
so the extra information coming from the OBV chart is not available

this can be both an advantage or otherwise, however keeping this in mind is important


Happy

Final picture

For lower version of ami, i.e 5.5 or lower

_SECTION_BEGIN("OBV Price Hi Lo"); 
Ob = OBV();    Hi = HHV(Ob,15);   	 Lo = LLV(Ob,15); 
B1 = Cross(Ob,Ref(Hi,-1));		S1 = Cross(Ref(Lo,-1),Ob); 
B1 = ExRem(B1,S1);			S1 = ExRem(S1,B1); 
UP1 = Flip(B1,S1);			DN1 = Flip(S1,B1); 

HiP= HHV(H,15);        			LoP= LLV(L,15); 
B2 = Cross(C,Ref(HiP,-1));		S2 = Cross(Ref(LoP,-1),C); 
B2 = ExRem(B2,S2);			S2 = ExRem(S2,B2); 
UP2 = Flip(B2,S2);			DN2 = Flip(S2,B2); 

PlotOHLC(30,40,30,30,"",IIf(UP2,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnScale|styleNoLabel|styleCloud,0,500,0); 
PlotOHLC(10,20,10,10,"",IIf(UP1,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnScale|styleNoLabel|styleCloud,0,500,0); 
_SECTION_END();

Happy

This should work with older versions

//===========================================================================================================================
GraphXSpace=5;
_SECTION_BEGIN("On Balance Volume");
Ob  = OBV();		e36 = EMA(Ob,36);		e200 = EMA(Ob,200);
Plot(Ob,"",colorWhite,styleNoTitle|styleThick);
Plot(0,"",colorWhite,styleNoLabel|styleNoRescale|styleDashed,0,0,5);
Plot(e200,"",colorBrightGreen,styleNoLabel|styleNoRescale);
Plot(e36, "",colorGold,styleNoLabel|styleNoRescale|styleDashed);
_SECTION_END();


_SECTION_BEGIN("OBV & Price Hi Lo Breaks");
Ob = OBV();
H15 = HHV(Ob,15);		L15 = LLV(Ob,15);		B1 = Cross(Ob,Ref(H15,-1));		S1 = Cross(Ref(L15,-1),Ob);
H30 = HHV(Ob,30);		L30 = LLV(Ob,30);		B2 = Cross(Ob,Ref(H30,-1));		S2 = Cross(Ref(L30,-1),Ob);
H60 = HHV(Ob,60);		L60 = LLV(Ob,60);		B3 = Cross(Ob,Ref(H60,-1));		S3 = Cross(Ref(L60,-1),Ob);

B1 = ExRem(B1,S1);	S1 = ExRem(S1,B1);	UP1 = Flip(B1,S1);	DN1 = Flip(S1,B1);
B2 = ExRem(B2,S2);	S2 = ExRem(S2,B2);	UP2 = Flip(B2,S2);	DN2 = Flip(S2,B2);
B3 = ExRem(B3,S3);	S3 = ExRem(S3,B3);	UP3 = Flip(B3,S3);	DN3 = Flip(S3,B3);

P15 = HHV(H,15);		Q15 = LLV(L,15);		X1 = Cross(C,Ref(P15,-1));		Y1 = Cross(Ref(Q15,-1),C);
P30 = HHV(H,30);		Q30 = LLV(L,30);		X2 = Cross(C,Ref(P30,-1));		Y2 = Cross(Ref(Q30,-1),C);
P60 = HHV(H,60);		Q60 = LLV(L,60);		X3 = Cross(C,Ref(P60,-1));		Y3 = Cross(Ref(Q60,-1),C);

X1 = ExRem(X1,Y1);	Y1 = ExRem(Y1,X1);	LG1 = Flip(X1,Y1);	SH1 = Flip(Y1,X1);
X2 = ExRem(X2,Y2);	Y2 = ExRem(Y2,X2);	LG2 = Flip(X2,Y2);	SH2 = Flip(Y2,X2);
X3 = ExRem(X3,Y3);	Y3 = ExRem(Y3,X3);	LG3 = Flip(X3,Y3);	SH3 = Flip(Y3,X3);

B15 = UP1 AND LG1;	S15 = DN1 AND SH1;
B30 = UP2 AND LG2;	S30 = DN2 AND SH2;
B60 = UP3 AND LG3;	S60 = DN3 AND SH3;

B15 = ExRem(B15,S15);	S15 = ExRem(S15,B15);	UP15 = Flip(B15,S15);	DN15 = Flip(S15,B15);
B30 = ExRem(B30,S30);	S30 = ExRem(S30,B30);	UP30 = Flip(B30,S30);	DN30 = Flip(S30,B30);
B60 = ExRem(B60,S60);	S60 = ExRem(S60,B60);	UP60 = Flip(B60,S60);	DN60 = Flip(S60,B60);

PlotOHLC( 5,10, 5, 5,"",IIf(UP60,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnScale|styleNoLabel|styleCloud,0,500);
PlotOHLC(15,20,15,15,"",IIf(UP30,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnScale|styleNoLabel|styleCloud,0,500);
PlotOHLC(25,30,25,25,"",IIf(UP15,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnScale|styleNoLabel|styleCloud,0,500);

Title = "Varun's OBV & Price Breakout Ribbons, Topmost: 15 Minutes, Lowest: 60 Minutes & Middle 30 Minutes";
_SECTION_END();
//===========================================================================================================================

Happy

Manojborle ji's lower version codes:

I made changes to suit my charts, u can try using these codes.

_SECTION_BEGIN("OBV & Price Hi Lo Breaks");
Ob = OBV();
H15 = HHV(Ob,15);		L15 = LLV(Ob,15);		B1 = Cross(Ob,Ref(H15,-1));		S1 = Cross(Ref(L15,-1),Ob);
H30 = HHV(Ob,30);		L30 = LLV(Ob,30);		B2 = Cross(Ob,Ref(H30,-1));		S2 = Cross(Ref(L30,-1),Ob);
H60 = HHV(Ob,60);		L60 = LLV(Ob,60);		B3 = Cross(Ob,Ref(H60,-1));		S3 = Cross(Ref(L60,-1),Ob);

B1 = ExRem(B1,S1);	S1 = ExRem(S1,B1);	UP1 = Flip(B1,S1);	DN1 = Flip(S1,B1);
B2 = ExRem(B2,S2);	S2 = ExRem(S2,B2);	UP2 = Flip(B2,S2);	DN2 = Flip(S2,B2);
B3 = ExRem(B3,S3);	S3 = ExRem(S3,B3);	UP3 = Flip(B3,S3);	DN3 = Flip(S3,B3);

P15 = HHV(H,15);		Q15 = LLV(L,15);		X1 = Cross(C,Ref(P15,-1));		Y1 = Cross(Ref(Q15,-1),C);
P30 = HHV(H,30);		Q30 = LLV(L,30);		X2 = Cross(C,Ref(P30,-1));		Y2 = Cross(Ref(Q30,-1),C);
P60 = HHV(H,60);		Q60 = LLV(L,60);		X3 = Cross(C,Ref(P60,-1));		Y3 = Cross(Ref(Q60,-1),C);

X1 = ExRem(X1,Y1);	Y1 = ExRem(Y1,X1);	LG1 = Flip(X1,Y1);	SH1 = Flip(Y1,X1);
X2 = ExRem(X2,Y2);	Y2 = ExRem(Y2,X2);	LG2 = Flip(X2,Y2);	SH2 = Flip(Y2,X2);
X3 = ExRem(X3,Y3);	Y3 = ExRem(Y3,X3);	LG3 = Flip(X3,Y3);	SH3 = Flip(Y3,X3);

B15 = UP1 AND LG1;	S15 = DN1 AND SH1;
B30 = UP2 AND LG2;	S30 = DN2 AND SH2;
B60 = UP3 AND LG3;	S60 = DN3 AND SH3;

B15 = ExRem(B15,S15);	S15 = ExRem(S15,B15);	UP15 = Flip(B15,S15);	DN15 = Flip(S15,B15);
B30 = ExRem(B30,S30);	S30 = ExRem(S30,B30);	UP30 = Flip(B30,S30);	DN30 = Flip(S30,B30);
B60 = ExRem(B60,S60);	S60 = ExRem(S60,B60);	UP60 = Flip(B60,S60);	DN60 = Flip(S60,B60);

Plot(150,"",IIf(UP15,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnScale|styleNoLabel|styleThick,0,500,0,0,3);
Plot(100,"",IIf(UP30,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnScale|styleNoLabel|styleThick,0,500,0,0,3);
Plot(50,"",IIf(UP60,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnScale|styleNoLabel|styleThick,0,500,0,0,3);

Title = "Varun's OBV & Price Breakout Ribbons, Topmost: 15 Minutes, Lowest: 60 Minutes & Middle 30 Minutes";
_SECTION_END();
//===========================================================================================================================

_SECTION_BEGIN("Price Hi Lo");

HiP= HHV(H,15);		LoP= LLV(L,15);

B2 = Cross(C,Ref(HiP,-1));	S2 = Cross(Ref(LoP,-1),C);

B2 = ExRem(B2,S2);		S2 = ExRem(S2,B2);

UP2 = Flip(B2,S2);		DN2 = Flip(S2,B2);

Plot(40,"",IIf(UP2,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnScale|styleNoLabel|styleThick,0,200,0,-5,8);
//Plot(4,"",IIf(UP2,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnScale|styleNoLabel|styleNoLine|styleDots,0,200);
//Plot(2,"",IIf(UP1,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnScale|styleNoLabel|styleNoLine|styleDots,0,200);
_SECTION_END();

_SECTION_BEGIN("OBV Hi Lo");
Ob = OBV();	Hi = HHV(Ob,15);	Lo = LLV(Ob,15);

B1 = Cross(Ob,Ref(Hi,-1));	S1 = Cross(Ref(Lo,-1),Ob);

B1 = ExRem(B1,S1);		S1 = ExRem(S1,B1);

UP1 = Flip(B1,S1);		DN1 = Flip(S1,B1);

Plot(20,"",IIf(UP1,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnScale|styleNoLabel|styleThick,0,200,0,-5,8);
//Plot(4,"",IIf(UP2,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnScale|styleNoLabel|styleNoLine|styleDots,0,200);
//Plot(2,"",IIf(UP1,colorBlue,colorRed),styleOwnScale|styleNoLabel|styleNoLine|styleDots,0,200);
_SECTION_END();

So how can one use the daily charts for positional. Just food for thought. Follow any scrip after it makes a 52 week low. Just go long after you get a buy signal as per the 15 period OBV ribbon, confirmed by 15min. price ribbon in daily charts. Just keep holding onto your position till we get a sell signal based on these 2 ribbons. One could have rode AXISBANK from 440 odd to about 590. (that is a good 40-45% move) by investing a few thousand rupees. A profit of more than 1.5 lacs. You can find innumerable opportunities. The trick is just to stay put with your trade. If you play the option route, chances are that you would be feeding this trade from your profits after the 1st expiry itself. Then move onto some other scrip with this similar setup and let the old one run on auto pilot. You can get seriously rich in no time. And you just need to monitor your trade just once every day.

 

[vijkris]

Compilation of RJSHEM sir's valuable posts:

Thoughts on Psychology, Methods etc..

generally speaking thers no method which u can say wont hit two consecutive sl 100% of time anything can happen.what should matter is how much u lose in consecutive loss phase compared to what u earn in consecutive win phase.there should be a significiant difference leaning towards the win phase.

No chutti on trading days(market open) as intraday traders should not miss big move days and u dont know which day and hour it can be.

U need to see which is giving u the best setup and trade those only. It also comes better with experience which setup to trade.u can keep 6 to 10 stocks in watchlist trade any two per day can do more also if u can manage and ur risk. Level permits.

this is pvt message by nifty Taurus a couple of months before

"I have completed my task to watching 1000 of charts .Even I manually do bar by bar replay in amibroker..& test them manually & take entry & exit as I would have taken in real market..tested on last 16 monthes, nifty future ..resuls is as folows:
1) in 16 mothes, total trade: 316, profit trade:219,loss trades:97...success rate- 70%
2)risk mangemet- max trades in a day-2..if first trade is right, no 2nd trade for day..if first trade wrong, then only second trade taking...if 2 losses, no trade for a day
3) exit: no profit taking before 1:2 reward..in testing, i took 2R in every trade compulsirily or initial Sl should be given..in nifty,sl didnot give more than 20 points..
4)month by month, if we take 1% risk on per trade...MOM profit% is in range of 12% to 30% with not a singel loss monthes..
5) probability success month by month is vary from 50% to 86%..

I am very excited about those results..Now I wan to trade those setups in real market in nifty with same MM."

posted here to show the hardwork behind that 8% return. some still say intraday trading profitability not possible.if u workhard anything is possible.sorry niftytaurus for sharing a pvt msg here hope u don't mind.i know one month is too short but making 8% just trading nifty in a tough month is great. keep going all the very best .
hope people don't run after ur system now.everyone needs to create their own holy grail suiting his personality.

Turtle traders by michael covel a wonderful book for all traders who wish for a book on weekends.

it depends on ur system its drawdown .max u should not go above 5% per trade but ideal would be to keep within 2% .but never trade swing positional with small capital u need decent size of capital atleast 5 to 10lk atleast .I would generally prefer not more than 2% risk per trade.

hope u continue to try mastering ur method.this is y pros keep telling first get ur method what suits u then stick with it no matter what with a correct mm and ull see ur path to trading success very simple(no its not that simple in execution .hope to see u in millionaire club soon and yes it is possible(that's current my target for u).keep going all the best.:clapping:

Failure vivek in simple terms if a bar breaks previous pivot high then closes below leaving a big wick that is failure shortbelow that bar sl same bar high like in ts chart.rejection whenever breakout happens then the next bar after breakout bar closes below in red that is rejection short below that red bar sl at breakout bar high.everything in live chart is difficult in beginning with time itll become easy.

Risk capital per trade

Trade 1% of your trading capital on each trade. Increase the % only after you reach 50 % profit on your trading capital....This should take about 3 months. Then at the end of 3 months devide the profits equally between trading capital and risk capital.....continue trading 1 % of your trading capital.....and trade 4-5 % of your risk capital......let this continue for 100 % profit....then repeat the same step.....

Let us take an example...say your Initial trading capital is Rs 5 Lacs......you make 2.5 L profits devide that 50:50 ...so trading capital now becomes 5+1.25 =6.25 L and your risk capital is 1.25 L now on each trade you take 1 % of 6.25 L plus 5% of 1.25 L = 6250 +6250 = 12,500 on each trade......continue this till your trading capital + Risk capital becomes 15 L ....then same steps.....

If you find 5 % too large, then go for 3-4 % of risk capital but this compounding will increase your trading capital exponentially without taking undue risk with your trading capital which goes on increasing continuously.

Smart_trade

couple of excellent write ups by smart trade will be useful for u guys so posted here

everything in live chart is difficult in beginning with time itll become easy. this is what I meant by previous line in post 128.

method will not fail if u know how to trade and handle it correctly. forwardtest eod picks by ma almagation daily in 3 mins ull know urself.think this is one of best ways to avoid losses as ur picking the high probability setups.

self belief is very important to succeed.whenever u have fear think like this what can happen maximum wrong ur sl will hit that's all not end of life. there should be fear in life but fear should not become life.

think u should trade just one index or stock with adds for now.all improvisation I suggested for later(but keep forward testing on paper)once u have made good considerable progress.

Please always remain students of the markets.....
always remain humble.Never ever let anyone tell you that Trading Mastery is not possible.

Never let anyone tell you how you cannot succeed.......

Your job as a trader has and is always to put in a perfect trade,and then again and again and again.Focus on the trading,not on the money.....

You can attain great wealth from Trading.

You don't have to run newsletters,give tips,sell softwares,........there is more money in Trading than in any of these.

Therefore,focus on Trading Perfection.......and reach heights that you imagine as unreachable.


Happy Trading!
Saint

One more important thing wanted to say dont keep on trying to fine tune ur system or jump systems to keep avoiding all sideways or catching a complete big moves.no system can avoid 100% sideways or catch 100% big moves.just stick to one system which can give u profit of morethan 5 to 10% orr more per month average with proper entry exit and mm rules.

focus more on not missing any trades and compounding ur profits as to increase ur trade sizes and profits.compounding will give u amazing results if u implement it correctly.

I have already said we cant always catch the whole big move.if ur sl gets hit move on to the next trade. Ull always get days like yesterday in nifty but not every trade.that is y adds and profit booking is important.

I have just shared what i have learnt .if it helps u in ur trading journey making u consistent profitable trader enough for me but becoming a consistant profitable trader is more than just setups which i think u know well.so its all in ur hands .

remember always ,in trading what matters most is not ur method or afls but how much u win in ur winning trades and how much u lose in ur losing trades.

do you know the most important thing u did with tatamotors.
YOU TOOK THAT TRADE
keep taking more trades like this ull start catching bigger Returns.dont hesitate to take trade if u see ur setup even if ur last couple of trades were in loss one winning trade makes up for lot of those and avoid late entries.

Take a new notebook on the first page write ur trading plan ie ur entry rules exit rules risk per trade max trades per day

from next page onwards make columns date scripname entry price exit price stoploss no of lots profit/loss risk/reward.upate each of ur trades in the columns regularly .

also before the start of each trading day read ur first page trading plan atleast once. All this wont take much time but will help u in improving ur trading a lot(no excel stuff hardcore writing in book).

Take a walk around ur trading desk or do some pushups ,squats, abdomen crunches .yes these r boring too but they add a lot of value.

S xray bhai if one is trading just index extremely important to stay awake till end no matter how much the jhand moves trying to put us off bahut bhar dekha hain it will remain jhand from start to 2 30 or 2 45 or 3 pm then boom .extreme patience and alertness till end very important if trading just index.

ADDS

Vijkris one thing u can do is just trade one scrip with adds with clear entry ,exit, mm rules.adds one add for long trades and two adds for short.as shorts move better.if taken 200 shares in intial entry then first add u take 100 shares second 50 shares.adds can be taken over minor pivots or aggressive pivots.can do this for a while then can add more stocks slowly as capital and ur experience grows.can trade without adds too but profit will be different .all the best.

TO ADD or NOT TO ADD

One of the questions which bother traders whether day traders or swing traders is whether they should add to the winning positions or not.The answer is not simple because adding the positions when the market is going in our favour it a good trading practice but it has its own trade-offs. Let us see what are the advantages and disadvantages :

1) Advantages :*1) The main advantage is when we get a strong trend, and we add to our positions, the positions become large without any increase in risk as we add in such a way that the total position after adds are not jeopardised.So in a strong trend the adds can give profits of 5-10 R from 3-4 R price move.

2) Another advantage is as we are adding in the profitable position along with the trend, there is less tendency/temptations of booking profits and taking positions against the ongoing trend.

2) Disadvantages*: The main disadvantage is the trader looses small profits.Most of the times markets are sideways and choppy and small profits which has accumalated will vanish if we take adds.

So how does a trader resolve the above dilema ? This issue is more bothersome for daytraders.
Swing traders generally get good directional trend moves but daytraders will always feel bad if the small profit accumulated goes away due to add and the trade becomes a breakeven or small profit trade.

The solution lies in achieving a balance .*I have found that daytraders can take atleast 1 add in sideways/weak trending markets but the moment they sense that the day could be a strong trend day, they must add aggressively and hold till the end as the statistics indicates that the strong trend days close at /near the bottom/top of the day. On strong trend days holding till the end is much profitable than buy/sell during the day*In grinding up/down and choppy markets one should avoid adds.

But for taking adds, one should be prepared to fergo some small profits. Adds in swing trading are very profitable when we get a large trend and we have initial position plus 3-4 adds. Adds could be in 1:1:0.5:0.25:0.25 position so that the add quantity is reduced as we go further in the trend.

Traders can practice by starting with one add on a trend day and holding till the end, then increase add positions to 2 and so on...even one add straight-a-way doubles the profits.

Smart_trade

EXITS

about taking small profits there r different ways of doing it.
u can exit 25% at 1x 50% at @2x and then trail rest position till sl hit or exit 50% at 2x and move sl to breakeven for rest and then trail or u can exit some part at support and resistence ,high volume big bar close or

if u know that ur method gives more than 40% trades profit above 3x then u can move sl to breakeven at 2x and remove full position at 3x itself.

there can be lot of permutations and combination u need to choose what suits ur mindset and method.once u decide on something u need to follow same for all trades to see the best result of it.

One way of objective exits ,once price moves 1x after entry move sl to breakeven then once price moves 3x move sl to 1x then 4x sl 2x ,5x sl 3x go on like this till sl hits or end of day. Downside of this may be lot of breakeven trades.to put in simple terms if ur stoploss is 3 rs and entry price 360 once price moves 363 move sl to 360 once price goes 369 move sl 363.@ 372 sl 366 go on like this till sl hits or end of day.

The above compilation was in my to-do list since many months.. Finally achieved it. :thumb::clap:

 

[vijkris]

Performance Report - Feb 2017

Total trading days: 16
Days present : 6 (Due to Typewriting Exam, was absent for few days)

Total Trades: 23
Winners: 9, (39%)
Not Winners : 14, (61%)

Gross Profits : +3.44%
Gross Loss : -6.80%

Net Loss for the Month : (-3.36%)

First time in my trading career, I have maintained a notebook with all trades written along with the timestamps. :thumb:
Definitely I have progressed one more step towards becoming a successful trader as I have started Recording my trades. :clapping:

 

[vijkris]

Performance Review - March 2017

No. of days traded = 6;

Total Trades = 21;
Winners = 2 = 10%;
Not winners = 19= 90%;

Amount earned by winners = + 1%;
Amount lost by not winners = - 6%;
Net Realized Profits = (-5%)




For the year gone by, since April 2016 to 31st March 2017 :

EQ = ( - 8.95%)

MCX = ( - 6.75%)

Net Realised Profits = ( - 15.7% )


(No. of trades, winners/not winners data is not available prior to Feb 2017. !!)

One Positive is that Risk Management is good. :thumb:
Good Night.