Trading Challenge II : 300% in 5 months

[SwagatN]

They are right IMO. I will explain later..

@primitivetrader

Is the trendline drawn correctly now ??
In the morning I had connected A (The peak) and C (1st lower swing low) and extended. The recent upmove from F faced resistance near that extended line so I drew a parallel line near F and made it a downtrend channel. I guess that was wrong.

Now about buying climax on hourly. I had marked the bar just before G as a buying climax. As per the definition on what I have read - "A high to ultra high volume up bar closing in the middle and into new fresh high ground is a buying climax". And there should be upmove behind you.
Now near F demand clearly overcame supply and a strong rally led price from F to G. AT the bar prior to G price crossed the resistance above E (supply from nearest swing high and a new ground), but closed off the high. The volume was ultrahigh, The highest among last 3 sessions. So I marked that as buying climax.

Now for bag holding on 5m chart -

Again as per the definition - "A narrow spread down bar with ultra high volume. and It should be into fresh new low ground. A point is reached when the herd panic and unload their holdings at rock bottom prices. "

From A to B there is sharp selling leading price below the recent congestion low. The bar before B indicates effort to fall, below which there could be panic selling. But then it formed a narrow spread, high close down bar on high volume"

Please correct what wrong do you see here..

 

[primitivetrader]

@primitivetrader

Is the trendline drawn correctly now ??
In the morning I had connected A (The peak) and C (1st lower swing low) and extended. The recent upmove from F faced resistance near that extended line so I drew a parallel line near F and made it a downtrend channel. I guess that was wrong.

Now about buying climax on hourly. I had marked the bar just before G as a buying climax. As per the definition on what I have read - "A high to ultra high volume up bar closing in the middle and into new fresh high ground is a buying climax". And there should be upmove behind you.
Now near F demand clearly overcame supply and a strong rally led price from F to G. AT the bar prior to G price crossed the resistance above E (supply from nearest swing high and a new ground), but closed off the high. The volume was ultrahigh, The highest among last 3 sessions. So I marked that as buying climax.

Now for bag holding on 5m chart -

Again as per the definition - "A narrow spread down bar with ultra high volume. and It should be into fresh new low ground. A point is reached when the herd panic and unload their holdings at rock bottom prices. "

From A to B there is sharp selling leading price below the recent congestion low. The bar before B indicates effort to fall, below which there could be panic selling. But then it formed a narrow spread, high close down bar on high volume"

Please correct what wrong do you see here..

below is your hourly chart with my analysis

volume is not that high at b to be bag holding. secondly its not into new high. this is an above average volume test, good place to go long (couple of other things are there to support the long here - which you will understand with exp)

if you are serious about learning vsa you need to devote 9-12 months religiously min to get hand of it. it works that i can tell you but its difficult to learn i have seen many people attempting it but leaving it after 3-4 months. it works equally well on intra day.
you are attempting to trade with it just after reading gavin's book is a recipe for loss and frustration. read tom Williams book the undeclared secrets of market. difficult book but study it 10-15 times you may get hang of the stuff.
i have spent considerable amount of time,money and effort to learn it and learn about chart reading skill. i can surely tell you you it works and you can make money using vsa on any time frame but it demands efforts and time and money.
most imp its absolutely not imp to learn about volume or how it works you can trade without knowing about all such things and make handsome profits.

 

[RadhuK]

@primitivetrader

Is the trendline drawn correctly now ??
In the morning I had connected A (The peak) and C (1st lower swing low) and extended. The recent upmove from F faced resistance near that extended line so I drew a parallel line near F and made it a downtrend channel. I guess that was wrong.

Now about buying climax on hourly. I had marked the bar just before G as a buying climax. As per the definition on what I have read - "A high to ultra high volume up bar closing in the middle and into new fresh high ground is a buying climax". And there should be upmove behind you.
Now near F demand clearly overcame supply and a strong rally led price from F to G. AT the bar prior to G price crossed the resistance above E (supply from nearest swing high and a new ground), but closed off the high. The volume was ultrahigh, The highest among last 3 sessions. So I marked that as buying climax.

Now for bag holding on 5m chart -

Again as per the definition - "A narrow spread down bar with ultra high volume. and It should be into fresh new low ground. A point is reached when the herd panic and unload their holdings at rock bottom prices. "

From A to B there is sharp selling leading price below the recent congestion low. The bar before B indicates effort to fall, below which there could be panic selling. But then it formed a narrow spread, high close down bar on high volume"

Please correct what wrong do you see here..

 

[SwagatN]

if you are serious about learning vsa you need to devote 9-12 months religiously min to get hand of it. it works that i can tell you but its difficult to learn i have seen many people attempting it but leaving it after 3-4 months. it works equally well on intra day.
you are attempting to trade with it just after reading gavin's book is a recipe for loss and frustration. read tom Williams book the undeclared secrets of market. difficult book but study it 10-15 times you may get hang of the stuff.
i have spent considerable amount of time,money and effort to learn it and learn about chart reading skill. i can surely tell you you it works and you can make money using vsa on any time frame but it demands efforts and time and money.
most imp its absolutely not imp to learn about volume or how it works you can trade without knowing about all such things and make handsome profits.

Off course I am serious on learning the concept and applying it as well. Otherwise I would not have stopped my previous approach and picked this one at this stage. I had spent months developing and testing my other strategy on pivot and trend following concept.

I finished 4 books in those 2 days.
1. The undeclared secrets that drive thestock market by Tom williams
2. Trading in the shadow of smart money by Gavin Holmes
3. Master the market, which turned out to be a revised version of book no 1
4. A complete guide to volume price analysis by Anna coulings.

Off course i am gonna re-read them again and again till I understand the concept well and execute it flawlessly. I dont know about others and dont know about your given timeframe, but I know sooner or later I will reach there.

 

[SwagatN]

@primitivetrader You said, its not important to learn about volumes and how it works.. Are you referring to some other strategy here or talking about VSA ?? What will be left if you take volume out of VSA .. I am confused..

 

[SwagatN]

@primitivetrader

One question on the trend channel that you have drawn.
Initially I had drawn the trend channel exactly as you had shown, but then price formed D-E-F swing and started trading below the channel bottom in to the over sold zone. Thats where I adjusted the trend channel and and joined C-E and D-F as marked in my chart.. But you have kept the original trend channel intact even though the downtrend has accelerated and created more swing points.

1. So as per you, on what reason you are selecting a swing points to be considered for trend channel ?
2. And when exactly you will call a trend channel getting negated ?

 

[SwagatN]

Date : 07 Sep 2018 - Intraday Update

This is how I have read the chart today.

• The day started inside previous session's trading range.
• At A price approached to the range bottom on strong volume. May be effort to push through the demand zone.
• At B, there was a technical no demand bar being NR4 and volume lowest than previous 3 bars.but still intraday volume was above average and that made me sceptical, So I avoided attempting SHORT there. The reason was if there was actually no demand it should not have taken this much effort (volume)
• At C my guess proved to be correct, Price plotted a bottom reversal and rallied to D. I started looking for LONG right after bar C but did not get any low volume test for entry.
• At E price took a pause and corrected on low volume. No supply bar was seen which also got validated by an upbar on rising volume. I entered LONG there. Price struggled to go up, CLear sign of not all floating supply was removed. Scratched LONG
• F shows an shake out to weak holders. I turned out to be one of them. I again started looking for LONG
• G shows an upthrust, but strength was in background. The decline following G was on low volume shows lack of selling interest among smart money.
• H another shake our perhaps !!! not sure.. Price rallied again in to the supply zone.
• At I, there is a weak close down bar on strong volume indicates supply. A bearish engulfing. But next bar was an upbar closing at its high showing effort with no result. This was bullish sign. Then there was no supply test and time to Enter LONG.
• I did not take this LONG looking at the supply coming over D and G. But I should have believed on the background more, which was clearly showing strength..
• I wanted to enter LONG on pullback post breakout, which came around 614,, But by that time I did not want to chase price and decided to wait for next trade opportunity.

This trade turned out to be a jackpot trade today.
It was really fun and quite a beauty to apply these concepts fro what I learned during my break..
I am sure there is a long way to go. looking forward to learn more from live action and from fellow traders through regular interaction...

 

[SwagatN]

 

[SwagatN]

 

[newtrader101]

I trade 30 min chart for intraday. I don't trade cross over or close above/below MA. For me MA is a Resistance or Support marker... like trendline or horizontal line.
In the chart, I see only 2 things:
1. Around 3 pm the price is on an uptrend & both the MA's are supporting price.
2. The price is around 1/2 % from shorter MA and 2% from longer MA. If you look at earlier periods of such movement you will notice that price can correct 1% or more to test the MA.

This will alert me to stay ready for a buy. Now look at the chart below:
View attachment 28281


Simple trend-line says my view of going long is invalidated around 607. So, my stop is 606 & my risk & trade qty will be determined by my entry price tomorrow.

Did you mean validated around 607? Sorry I didn't get it.