Teach A Man To Fish And.........

[Saint]

Hello Saint!

At what stage in a intermediate downtrend do we say that we are in a bear market?How do we make out the difference between a major trend move and an intermediate trend move?

Please take your time in answering,maybe over the weekend.

Thanks!
Regards!
Anu

Hi Anupama,

To answer your query,we need to go into the basics of Trends.........Let us get into it from the beginning.Then let's address your doubt.

TRENDS

As per time frames,we can classify Trends into:
A.SECULAR TRENDS
B.PRIMARY TREND
C.INTERMEDIATE TREND
D.SHORT TERM TRENDS

A.SECULAR TRENDS

Every short term trend has within it one to several intraday uptrends and downtrends.Every intermediate trend has within it one to several short term uptrends and downtrends.Every primary trend has within it one to several intermediate uptrends and downtrends.So too,every secular trend has within it one to several primary uptrends and downtrends.

What we mean by Bull market is a market ina primary uptrend.What we mean by a Bear Market is a market in a primary dntrend.

A SECULAR BULL MARKET has primary uptrends(Bull mkts)greater in magnitude and duration as compared to its primary dntrends(Bear mkts).Expect the bull markets to unfold longer than the bear markets in a secular bull move.

Vice versa for the SECULAR BEAR MKT.A secular bear market has primary dntrends greater in magnitude and duration as compared to its primary uptrends.Expect the bear markets to take longer to unfold than the bull markets in a secular bear move.

A Secular trend usually lasts about 10-25 years.

Let us get into the others tomorrow.........maybe we can also have a look at some secular trends on charts.

All the best!
Saint

 

[Agilent]

Hi Anupama,

To answer your query,we need to go into the basics of Trends.........Let us get into it from the beginning.Then let's address your doubt.

TRENDS

As per time frames,we can classify Trends into:
A.SECULAR TRENDS
B.PRIMARY TREND
C.INTERMEDIATE TREND
D.SHORT TERM TRENDS

A.SECULAR TRENDS

Every short term trend has within it one to several intraday uptrends and downtrends.Every intermediate trend has within it one to several short term uptrends and downtrends.Every primary trend has within it one to several intermediate uptrends and downtrends.So too,every secular trend has within it one to several primary uptrends and downtrends.

What we mean by Bull market is a market ina primary uptrend.What we mean by a Bear Market is a market in a primary dntrend.

A SECULAR BULL MARKET has primary uptrends(Bull mkts)greater in magnitude and duration as compared to its primary dntrends(Bear mkts).Expect the bull markets to unfold longer than the bear markets in a secular bull move.

Vice versa for the SECULAR BEAR MKT.A secular bear market has primary dntrends greater in magnitude and duration as compared to its primary uptrends.Expect the bear markets to take longer to unfold than the bull markets in a secular bear move.

A Secular trend usually lasts about 10-25 years.

Let us get into the others tomorrow.........maybe we can also have a look at some secular trends on charts.

All the best!
Saint

Saint
I had offered my take (see link) on this great question by Anupama, wonder if you would corroborate .... thanks

http://www.traderji.com/48362-post223.html
AGILENT

 

[rahulg77]

Hi Gobatman,

But there is lots of money to be made from the meat in between....and lots of restful sleep at nights knowing that the charts do not conflict with one another.

All the best!
Saint

I like this one Saint. Nice and simple. really nice. Thanks

 

[Saint]

Few examples of Secular Moves..........

SENSEX an example of a Secular Bull Market.NIKKEI a Secular Bear.Charts below.....

Saint

 

[Saint]

Saint
I had offered my take (see link) on this great question by Anupama, wonder if you would corroborate .... thanks

http://www.traderji.com/48362-post223.html
AGILENT

Great stuff,Agilent......agreed.

As it stands now,this dntrend is nothing but an intermediate dntrend.If this rally has legs and we go on to make new highs,that confirms that.If on the other hand,if this rally is unable to go to new highs thereby forming a lower pivot high,we are in danger of a primary dntrend(bear market).A lower pivot high is only a danger of a possible bear.Confirmation of the bear market comes if the fall takes out the lows of 8799.

Saint

 

[pkjha30]

Hi SAINT

Sensex chart has not come properly. It is obstructed by Upload form.

It is really goo to see you back to forum after holidays and travails of settling down in India (that too while coming from Singapore)

This , in itself , is a bullish signal
Pankaj

 

[Saint]

Hi SAINT

Sensex chart has not come properly. It is obstructed by Upload form.

It is really goo to see you back to forum after holidays and travails of settling down in India (that too while coming from Singapore)

This , in itself , is a bullish signal
Pankaj

lol Pankaj.....

SENSEX corrected

Saint

 

[pkjha30]

Hi SAINT

From the chart I see that support is taken at a higher point from 1994-2003 before sensex took off in 2003. The low of 1993 was never tested.

Is it possible to say that unless we test that low and breach with high volumes, we are not yet in primary bear dntrend? You have put benchmark at the supportline in accordance with the theory. But in practice sometimes indices may bounce back from the lowest point formed after the first high of the consolidation period( in yellow background)


Pankaj

 

[Saint]

Hi SAINT

From the chart I see that support is taken at a higher point from 1994-2003 before sensex took off in 2003. The low of 1993 was never tested.

Is it possible to say that unless we test that low and breach with high volumes, we are not yet in primary bear dntrend? You have put benchmark at the supportline in accordance with the theory. But in practice sometimes indices may bounce back from the lowest point formed after the first high of the consolidation period( in yellow background)


Pankaj

Hi Pankaj,

These are long term charts and we are looking more at the secular trend of SENSEX.What we call as bear market in common parlance is a primary dntrend and not a secular dntrend.

So,a break of 8799,and we classify this move as a primary dntrend.......and as for this Secular Bull to become a Bear,we are far from that scenario.

As it stands now,we are in a SECULAR BULL MARKET,in a PRIMARY BULL MKT.Breaking 8799,we go into a PRIMARY BEAR MKT,but still very much in a SECULAR BULL MKT.

And for a long term trader or investor,there can be nothing sweeter in a secular bull mkt than taking profits,watching the mkts get into a primary bear mkt,and buying more at the lows.

Saint

 

[Anupama Singh]

Thank you Agilent and Munchikana for your replies.
And thanks Saint.Looking fwd to the rest.Awaiting eagerly.

Sincerely,
Anu