Stocks for the long and short term portfolio

[Mr.G]

What do you think of Shree renuka sugars?

All sugar stocks are not worth in investing in. No good companies. You can speculate if you want though.


JAMIT Can you recommend any books I should read to use your method with my fundamental analysis?

 

[jamit_05]

What do you think of Shree renuka sugars?

Normally, I first develop and opinion about the sector.

In case of sugar, there are no worries of commodity cycles. It always sells. Unlike, metals, realty and capital goods. So, now we only have to worry about the stock price.

GOI has imposed unfavourable rules on the industry. Hence the Industry's profitability is hugely affected. But, the good news is this factor is amply reflected in the stock prices. So much so that now there is very little downside left. Lets see how much.

Lets pick the most reliable and stable stock: Balrampur Chini

CMP 40.60;
My Entry price: 22 (2004 Lows)
All time Low is: 5 (Max DD is Rs.17)
Expected Upside Target: 165 (2009 High)

So the math looks convincing.

Moreover, I believe that this sector will get the focus in the near future. Because every sector has its day. Else, the Industry will die out, which is not good for the nation. Last uptrend was seen in 2009 after a 3 year gap. Its high time now.

In conclusion, as soon as GOI changes policy, which will be sudden.

Balrampur Chini will madly shoot up to atleast Rs.100 if not Rs.165 and Rs.200 belt.

Bajaj Hind will reach 200 levels, CMP 15;

Therefore, my money is waiting for the levels to hit. Where I will allocate 5% of my cash into these two top sugar stocks.

 

[jamit_05]

All sugar stocks are not worth in investing in. No good companies. You can speculate if you want though.


JAMIT Can you recommend any books I should read to use your method with my fundamental analysis?

I believe if the company has plenty of upside scope and is likely to survive the next decade, then its worth putting money into but only at a very favorable price. The hardcore Value Investment rules are for Fund Managers who have to explain their every move to the chairpersons.

I have not come across a book, which meshes TA with FA with confidence. It would be a blasphemy for both the schools, hence, the reputed authors refrain.

However, only recently, Aswath Damodaran, in an interview, admitted that pure Value Investment is not best suited for this time an age. The price swings have become so wide that one ought to put it to good use.

 

[jamit_05]

BHEL is being battered down in a major way. Everybody has given a SELL call on it. Therefore, a big down bar on the monthly chart is likely.

Have set a purchase price on Bhel for Rs.100 and then Rs.40 (2004 Low).

It is a dividend giving stock, with a good cash pile. The reason it is losing ground is because it has dues from the power sector making its FCF possibly negative for the year. But, times will change. Hence, am prepared to hold this stock for a couple of years at least.

Another super Bad Day for Bhel.

Two strong and wide ranged down Daily bars. I am waiting for and expecting this madness to continue into a Monthly bar (or two). Such is the nature of stocks: When the going is good people want the stock at any price, but when the tides have turned do Not want it any price.

 

[jamit_05]

LT is gem. It never crossed my imagination that there is possibility of this stock being available at a dream price of Rs.400 (2008 Lows). But, some factors may make it happen.

Q1 results were below expectation. With this sector under-performing FIIs are likely to start dumping this stock. Hence, 650 is likely to touch. With added volatility from General Elections, another generous slide will make Rs.400 possible.

Lets wait and watch.

 

[jamit_05]

An older post, a little geeky.

My doubts of Tata Steel's good future are further solidifying. I met an accounting expert focused on the stock market, it was a workshop.

It is not a good sign that a company takes over another which is bigger. Growth is best when its organic. Acquisitions should be smaller or at par. WIth the recession Tata Steel is going to be pain in the neck for Tata Sons. (Do they own Iodex, if not they should....)

And this is only the beginning. Earlier this year I was happy to buy Sail and Tata Steel. But, after reading the prospects of the industry I changed my mind. I think I should watch for one more year. And TS is pretty much out of the question.

And the madness continues.

Was discussing the future of TS with Dad yesterday. And in my throes of bearishness, I blurted out my idea of buying TS only in two figures... he did not call me crazy to my face... he politely turned on the T.V.

 

[jamit_05]

Another stock worth a look: Wockhardt. CMP 890

It will be super cheap in the band of:

Rs. 250 to 400


The only reason for purchasing this stock is because its upswings are likely to be monstrous.
The company has shown resilience in the past. Has seen many downs and a few ups. I hope these guys have a plan for future.

Down 10% yesterday !!

 

[Mr.G]

Keep your eyes on getanjali gems.

 

[jamit_05]

Another stock worth a look: Wockhardt. CMP 890

It will be super cheap in the band of:

Rs. 250 to 400


The only reason for purchasing this stock is because its upswings are likely to be monstrous.
The company has shown resilience in the past. Has seen many downs and a few ups. I hope these guys have a plan for future.

almost 30% down in two days !!! Mr.Market at its best.

It broke out over 2011 highs in a big way. Ran from 500 to 2000. The return trip is even faster. Will wait for some consolidation. Never want to catch a falling knife.

 

[Mr.G]

Can you look at Andhra aqnk, it's fundamentals are very good but it's losing money day by day.