Stocks for the long and short term portfolio

[Mr.G]

Then I have to work for my money... which is when it really gets interesting and twisted...

I finally my calculations myself. kindly share how you work after that, as I got your basic strategy but it would be very useful if you told me the whole thing. I can't even imagine what would happen if I could effectively time my trades.

 

[jamit_05]

I finally my calculations myself. kindly share how you work after that, as I got your basic strategy but it would be very useful if you told me the whole thing. I can't even imagine what would happen if I could effectively time my trades.

This is where one has to be original. If one follows one single algorithm for so many different companies then performance definitely will suffer. I wonder how Fund Managers survive.

Each company and its sector has a different nature, which is understood after studying long term charts and reliving various crisis scenarios.

For ex. HuL has a very different mood. It does not sharply correct. It behaves like an Index. Which is very different from Bhel, EiL. Therefore, for HuL I have decided I will invest 5 to 10% of my cash in Rs.400 to Rs.450 belt.

Another very good, but oddly behaving company is Graphite India. It is rock solid without any competetion for another century (well!) But, its clients are not profiting and won't profit for another 5 years. So my buy price is Rs.60 and not 2008 Low although it is a small company.

Point being, I like to understand each company individually to decide its tendency to correct.

Another gem is ACC.... its business practice is remarkable. It pays its suppliers in 3 months... but demands payment from its buyers within a 15 days. This I have confirmed with a ACC distributor! You know what this means... RoE of this stock will remain rock solid !!

Therefore, I will buy this stock at each shallow correction starting at Rs.1084

I do not always have cash to make purchase because I am starting out new. So sometimes wishes do not become reality...

At any rate... this process is very very interesting. It has a good mix of academics and the real world which I enjoy best.

 

[jamit_05]

One other thing helps me in timing.

I trade Nifty Futures on the Daily chart. This gives me a fair indication of the prevailing mood and momentum. For ex... I hv purchased SBIN at 1800 because BnF seems to be at support and so does SBIN... but NF seems to have topped out, which is a risk. Therefore, if I were to buy any NF (or non banking stock) then I would wait till nifty corrects to atleast 5600.

 

[Mr.G]

I have zero knowledge of technical analysis, I only know the basic. And I am a fund manager, I assure you that if you just just focus on tried and tested solid companies then you can never ever lose. Just don't even try to put money in your second grade ideas.

 

[jamit_05]

I have zero knowledge of technical analysis, I only know the basic. And I am a fund manager, I assure you that if you just just focus on tried and tested solid companies then you can never ever lose. Just don't even try to put money in your second grade ideas.

100% agreed... besides there is no extra cash to deploy for second grade Companies.

But, I have a reason for not following the so called "Basics". Last 10 years have been very forgiving. Even mistakes were rewarded.

But, now the Times have changed; I hope you will agree.

Once heralded as the king, Tata Steel is heading for 2008 Lows. There is going to be immense and unmanageable instability.

Let the general elections get over in 2014... then Nifty will come out with its true colors. Till then Chidu has a set priority... Nifty MUST remain above 5500 at any cost!!

There will be such sharp and deep down moves that it will become very important to know the on-going momentum. Just buying at excel sheet values or chart supports won't be good enough. Sure, prices will recover in due time... but the opportunity to buy lower will be lost.

Just my point of view.

 

[jamit_05]

G... are u with a Fund House?

 

[Mr.G]

I am a private money manager, thankfully I'm not a salaried sheep who burns investors money for short term Window dressing. I hate those despicable a holes from the bottom of my heart. They have collectively ruined the image of fund managers in the eyes of people.

 

[Mr.G]

Tata steel threw its fundamentals out the windows whennit bought a cos 10 times it,so size. Did you know it's latest dividend was paid from borrowed money? I was a good fundamental stock, it will take atleast a decade for it to solve this **** up. Then I will buy it. Or maybe not. I don't like cyclic stocks. They are not good for long term. They are only good for short term play with 4-5 year cycle. It is not life time buy.

 

[Relish]

This is where one has to be original. If one follows one single algorithm for so many different companies then performance definitely will suffer. I wonder how Fund Managers survive.

Each company and its sector has a different nature, which is understood after studying long term charts and reliving various crisis scenarios.

For ex. HuL has a very different mood. It does not sharply correct. It behaves like an Index. Which is very different from Bhel, EiL. Therefore, for HuL I have decided I will invest 5 to 10% of my cash in Rs.400 to Rs.450 belt.

Another very good, but oddly behaving company is Graphite India. It is rock solid without any competetion for another century (well!) But, its clients are not profiting and won't profit for another 5 years. So my buy price is Rs.60 and not 2008 Low although it is a small company.

Point being, I like to understand each company individually to decide its tendency to correct.

Another gem is ACC.... its business practice is remarkable. It pays its suppliers in 3 months... but demands payment from its buyers within a 15 days. This I have confirmed with a ACC distributor! You know what this means... RoE of this stock will remain rock solid !!

Therefore, I will buy this stock at each shallow correction starting at Rs.1084

I do not always have cash to make purchase because I am starting out new.

I GRAPHITE india in rediff money and pe 9.39 and eps 8.35; If put some more details like debt, earning etc then it will be good. What do you think about erosmedia international zero debt company ?

 

[Mr.G]

If you see their accounts almost all media firms work in favor of their chief employees and not for shareholder. They use alot of accounting loops so that they don't have to pay the shareholder alot of money and distribute most of it among themselves or other beneficiaries.