Some of my forecasts

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Hi Sir First what is the meaning of ST and MT?
It depends on your perspective. Generally, ST, you might be considering what is happening over the next couple of days. OTOH, my WF's ST is the week that I am forecasting for. LT, could be anything beyond your ST perspective. As an example, I was looking for the WR2 at 101.99 to be hit on the EUR/JPY this week, and it just got hit perfectly. So, ST, I am expecting a correction, but LT, I am still waiting on 105.56.

I didn't go long that time I was playing a video game It costed me some pips on my demo LOL .
No harm done as long as it is your demo. I don't do much demo trading anymore. I do demo trade the account I have Nifty on. I'm afraid they'll shut me down for lack of activity, and I don't want to have to punch up the template on a bunch of markets again. If you ever see a demo chart of mine with a trade on it, it does not matter if it is winning by 300 pips or losing by 300 pips. It is a bad example. I like to keep it stress free and just keep my demo flowing.
LOL, there's a difference between batting practice and the real game.


I was watching for a candle break above the kumo and closing of it above the h4 cloud. as it was a t/k and cloud combo break which would have been a long entry at 100.92 while now the t/k are buzy following the price action;s tail I was buzy shooting monsters .
As long as they don't shoot back....
I got plenty of video games stored on my computer. When I need a break, my platform is as full as I want it, I shut it all down and turn on a computer game. OTOH, I live in the country, so there is plenty to do outside, too.


I have shorted eur/jpy too as it stands on the flat Shadow(pas) of Span A tenken kinjun combo ! but sir a question why did you put your take profit at 101.30 if it is related to the ichimoku I mean this is the level you are watching for the market to be corrected and then get back to the uptrend so is there any ichimoku concept of take profit related here ?
Wow! I guess I'm back to individual perspective again
All I want to do with the short is get some pips while my actual trade goes against me. I'm buckled in for the ride to 105.56 (No actual guarantee I'll go that far.). I don't need to get aggressive on the corrective approach. It would be different if it is the trend, and it is with my long trade.
The WR2 just got tagged perfectly. The WR1 is 101.38, so those 61 pips represents a full cycle within the trend itself. The 4-hour kijun is 101.28 and the hourly tenken is the same. There is no way I'll attempt to ride a correction of what appears to be a freight train any lower than that, especially when it is a hedge on the UP. All this hedge does is pay for the weekend for my wife and I. (Just another analogy.)


Lol also sir here I see that 105.56 is the "current" top of the cloud . do you think it could be possible for a move up to 106.16 as it was also top of the cloud/combo with kumo 2 days ago lol? And probably is 105.56 is a decision point for where the pair is headed right sir?
It's possible. The YR1 is 106.11 (Nice confluence, eh?). Nevertheless, when price starts getting close to that area, I'll be apprehensive to hold too long. I don't claim to be a perfect trader, so it does not bother me to leave pips on the table. BTW, at this point, nothing is to say we could not have even a further rise to 109.31. For now, I am counting on circa 105.56--106.11 to contain for a drop to the low 90.00's.
I'm glad you brought that point up, because there is something else that needs to be said.
This part of the conversation points out why it is important to know what all the TF's are saying. I'm looking at strong momentum, candle entering the daily cloud, OS condition on the weekly. The 15-min, 30-min, hourly, 4-hour all busted the altimeter, and a return to equilibrium is necessary, but only according to those lower TF's. We right now have possible freight train implications. It leaves no doubt that a short right now is a good trade, but going against the big picture.
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I'd say you have the right idea.
Let me suggest now for you to apply your own independent thinking to another market that we have not discussed. Look at the different TF's, then look at it through the eyes of your methodology, then post your findings here.
In other words, give me an idea of where you think the market will go ST and MT, and then I will give you a response.
Sir here is what I think about cad/chf. with the cloud being fresh and thin as well and a bearish crossover on The daily only suggests it has lost its north momentum and is at a state of un-decisive point to add more light on this the chinkou for the h4 and the daily are neutral this only indicates the market has lost most of its bullish momentum but not all . Here 2 things can happen either it gets back above and challenge the latter high which looks uncertain or it on its way to 0.8536. the problem here is that the daily top cloud is fresh so the candles would have to try a lot harder to penetrate it. The key level to watch for is 0.9074. it this get broken we are certainly heading to 0.8916 which is the bottom of the daily cloud. this would be a decision point if broken we are all clear to 0.8536 . the weekly candle has cleared from the kumo moving east it is still trying to hold on the weekly tenken but there is a lot of Heavy pressure on the pair that is resisting it from going north .the weekly kinjun and the weekly current cloud is far away from the candle so the kinjun is following it up all the way trying to catch up! assuming the monthly 0.9128 is the monthly tenken which is flat trendless but with the doji and the long upper spikes and the momentum being overbought it only suggests we are heading lower to at least the weekly kinjun fuher the tenken on the monthly doesn't wanna go north so I am all in for a south move but we need confirmation as stated above :)
 
Re: BHEL

Hello T4J,

It looks as if it is heading higher. When the correction is finished, it should break through the top of the daily cloud.
Even after the candle hits the bottom of the cloud on the daily, the chinkou will still be inside the candles. After the close of the candle, you need the chinkou sticking its head and seeing it south of the current candle. Therefore, it is safe to assume my conjecture could be wrong if we have a close below the daily cloud.
The weekly is showing there is plenty of room to move up and still be in the downtrend. In other words, the weekly is showing a corrective process of the bigger picture.
There could be some sideways action to get back to the top of the daily cloud, because there is now some R to get around. Once out, the tenken and kijun are following close behind and we should see a push to the weekly kijun.


Hello 4xpip,

BHEL Chart.

This time i entered few points above close price but then exited.

But why it was not performed as it should be when chikou was above candles
In weekly chart it stands on tenken

now what ? (Sir, your training material :))

Daily chart


Weekly Chart
 
I think I know what is happening here.
First the bottom chart is the correct one. The top is all messed up.
This is something I've talked about before, so I'll repeat, as this thread is too deep to look for it.

The 1st conclusion I would come to is with the chart being that far off, I would assume the settings are different, In other words, the top is not set to the default at 9,26,52. The assumption I've come to there is that you are not throwing me any curve balls.
The next conclusion, and I'm betting on this one to be right is they are different brokers. Another thing that gives that away is the candle look different.
(Please correct me if any of my final assumptions are wrong.) My next assumption is you live in India, which means your are 9 1/2 hours ahead of me. Check the chart on top, and I'll bet their day starts about 9:30am your time. Check the one below. I bet its day starts about 3:30am your time. That makes a world of difference in how the candles and the indicators are plotted.
The reason the one below is more accurate, and assuming all my assumptions are right, is because 2:30 am your time is the official beginning of the business day. 3:30 is still accurate enough, because very little happens between 2:30--3:30am.
Put your hourly charts side-by-side, and they should be identical.

As long as all the assumptions are correct, for analysis sake, I would junk the top if you are going to trade with indicators. If you were trading price action, then it is a different story.


chart difference which was one accurate sir?



 

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The cloud is no longer "fresh". 9 consecutive candles hugged it. Picture it as the candles wearing down the cloud's resiliency.
The cloud also does not look that thin. There was a huge move south today, and it is still stuck in the cloud.
The thing I like about the daily, and this is thinking outside the box, is a 1-2-3 about to form. If the recent swing low gets broken, then the candle is going to fall through the bottom of the cloud.
There is nothing neutral about the chinkou on this daily chart. It just dissected the candles to the south, which is another strong sign the bears just took control.
You're right on watching .9074, but by that time the 2 on the 1-2-3 is broken, and the bottom of the cloud will fall out.
I see where you got the .8536 from, which is the top of the weekly cloud. That might be a little too aggressive, but you do have the right idea.

I agree with you that we are headed south. Even though we are in the cloud (In other words, not broken yet.), I would contend we already got confirmation. It has to travel to the other side. By then the 2 is broken on the 1-2-3, which means the bottom of the cloud is broken, and the slide is on. By that time, the kijun will also be right behind the tenken, which will only add to the southerly excitement.

This also means my short on the USD/CHF is going to get some momentum. The Swissy is going to move the CAD/CHF pair, so you take your CAD/CHF, and I'll keep holding my USD/CHF, and we both will be happy.

Good analysis! The exception is viewing the cloud as being fresh. It was fresh 9 days ago.
View the candles as weight. You put enough weight on the cloud, and the candles are going to eventually fall through.


Sir here is what I think about cad/chf. with the cloud being fresh and thin as well and a bearish crossover on The daily only suggests it has lost its north momentum and is at a state of un-decisive point to add more light on this the chinkou for the h4 and the daily are neutral this only indicates the market has lost most of its bullish momentum but not all . Here 2 things can happen either it gets back above and challenge the latter high which looks uncertain or it on its way to 0.8536. the problem here is that the daily top cloud is fresh so the candles would have to try a lot harder to penetrate it. The key level to watch for is 0.9074. it this get broken we are certainly heading to 0.8916 which is the bottom of the daily cloud. this would be a decision point if broken we are all clear to 0.8536 . the weekly candle has cleared from the kumo moving east it is still trying to hold on the weekly tenken but there is a lot of Heavy pressure on the pair that is resisting it from going north .the weekly kinjun and the weekly current cloud is far away from the candle so the kinjun is following it up all the way trying to catch up! assuming the monthly 0.9128 is the monthly tenken which is flat trendless but with the doji and the long upper spikes and the momentum being overbought it only suggests we are heading lower to at least the weekly kinjun fuher the tenken on the monthly doesn't wanna go north so I am all in for a south move but we need confirmation as stated above :)
 
Re: BHEL

Hello T4J,

It looks as if it is heading higher. When the correction is finished, it should break through the top of the daily cloud.
Even after the candle hits the bottom of the cloud on the daily, the chinkou will still be inside the candles. After the close of the candle, you need the chinkou sticking its head and seeing it south of the current candle. Therefore, it is safe to assume my conjecture could be wrong if we have a close below the daily cloud.
The weekly is showing there is plenty of room to move up and still be in the downtrend. In other words, the weekly is showing a corrective process of the bigger picture.
There could be some sideways action to get back to the top of the daily cloud, because there is now some R to get around. Once out, the tenken and kijun are following close behind and we should see a push to the weekly kijun.
So i can short here with target of bottom of cloud & should long from there keeping small stop loss

right ?
 
Re: Hindustan Unilever

Ouch! When you said long, I thought you misspelled short.
I am wondering if you entered the trade when the current candle spike out of the cloud. If that is the case, then you always wait for the candle to close.
As long as this candle is done moving, then there are many indications the market is headed south:
1. Bearish engulfing reversal candle formed at the top of the cloud.
2. You mentioned the chinkou is still under the candles.
3. Candle under the tenken and kijun with both dropping.

Watch for the recent swing low to be broken for a huge move south. That means the 1-2-3 is broken, we then get a break out of the cloud. Everything points south and the break of the 1-2-3 will confirm it, which ultimately will confirm with the breaking of the bottom of the cloud.
Previous swing low is not broken, i am planning to go short here :)

 

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The cloud is no longer "fresh". 9 consecutive candles hugged it. Picture it as the candles wearing down the cloud's resiliency.
The cloud also does not look that thin. There was a huge move south today, and it is still stuck in the cloud.
The thing I like about the daily, and this is thinking outside the box, is a 1-2-3 about to form. If the recent swing low gets broken, then the candle is going to fall through the bottom of the cloud.
There is nothing neutral about the chinkou on this daily chart. It just dissected the candles to the south, which is another strong sign the bears just took control.
You're right on watching .9074, but by that time the 2 on the 1-2-3 is broken, and the bottom of the cloud will fall out.
I see where you got the .8536 from, which is the top of the weekly cloud. That might be a little too aggressive, but you do have the right idea.

I agree with you that we are headed south. Even though we are in the cloud (In other words, not broken yet.), I would contend we already got confirmation. It has to travel to the other side. By then the 2 is broken on the 1-2-3, which means the bottom of the cloud is broken, and the slide is on. By that time, the kijun will also be right behind the tenken, which will only add to the southerly excitement.

This also means my short on the USD/CHF is going to get some momentum. The Swissy is going to move the CAD/CHF pair, so you take your CAD/CHF, and I'll keep holding my USD/CHF, and we both will be happy.

Good analysis! The exception is viewing the cloud as being fresh. It was fresh 9 days ago.
View the candles as weight. You put enough weight on the cloud, and the candles are going to eventually fall through.
Hello sir . you know I don't trade CAD/CHF it was just to show you my individual analysis but I trade USD/CHF I am waiting for the bottom of the daily cloud to be broken to add my short position in usd/chf . Sir this is the same CAD/CHF chart I just captured it now to show you that the cloud hasn't been touched in this chart and is not very thick the chinkou was still neutral on the daily and the h4. arghh Why so much difference - lol You can clearly see that the cloud hasn't been touched yet on this chart I don't don't whats going on with brokers they are making it a mess .. sir btw are you still short on eur/jpy ? mine is still running as i woke up now

 
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I think I know what is happening here.
First the bottom chart is the correct one. The top is all messed up.
This is something I've talked about before, so I'll repeat, as this thread is too deep to look for it.

The 1st conclusion I would come to is with the chart being that far off, I would assume the settings are different, In other words, the top is not set to the default at 9,26,52. The assumption I've come to there is that you are not throwing me any curve balls.
The next conclusion, and I'm betting on this one to be right is they are different brokers. Another thing that gives that away is the candle look different.
(Please correct me if any of my final assumptions are wrong.) My next assumption is you live in India, which means your are 9 1/2 hours ahead of me. Check the chart on top, and I'll bet their day starts about 9:30am your time. Check the one below. I bet its day starts about 3:30am your time. That makes a world of difference in how the candles and the indicators are plotted.
The reason the one below is more accurate, and assuming all my assumptions are right, is because 2:30 am your time is the official beginning of the business day. 3:30 is still accurate enough, because very little happens between 2:30--3:30am.
Put your hourly charts side-by-side, and they should be identical.

As long as all the assumptions are correct, for analysis sake, I would junk the top if you are going to trade with indicators. If you were trading price action, then it is a different story.
Sir you know that I use the ichimoku as a superior corner stone of my methodology So yes I trade with indicators and some of the reversal indication of price action . sir 1st the settings are same set to default for both and sir the first chart starts at 5am my time and second chart starts at 4 am my time :) to reveal the identinty the first chart is of fxcm and second is of instaforex but as i showed you their cad/chf is a mess
 
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