Some of my forecasts

[Piratetrader]

Re: Ichimoku III--the tenken and kijun

HI For here On the entry do we go short when the candle finally breaks the cloud and went south or is it necessary for the tenken and kinjun to break the Span B if yes then why?

what happens when the tenken/kinjun is inside the cloud while the candle breaks through it ? And what would have been a good time to close the trade? also you mentioned that we are heading north here which shortly happened but you see in the right bottom hand side of the current price action on the chart the candles have broken below the cloud and the Tenken is below The Kinjun represents bearish momentum while both the T/K are flat measuring equiliblirium and acting as strong R . also the bearish cloud is thick indicating higher price volatility the thicker the cloud the bearish the trend the more power the price action requires to breakafter a few hours the price moves out of the kumo eastward representing current bearishness so this is the place a trader would want to go short with the Span -B tenken and finally the ultimate kinjun( if you notice we had a t/k combo resistance) there for Resistance with a great risk to reward ratio. as a trader if some one went short with all the above idea it would have moved 270 pips south before comming back again above to the break even point(where you entered the short) Where do you wanna close the trade on this 270 pips south move on the h4?would you apply the 3 candle before kinjun on the h4 or the h1? or would you have kept the short running ?

............................... my these 2 questions where left unanswered

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Ichimoku III--the tenken and kijun

Piratetrader, thanks for bringing these to my attention. Evidently, your questions got lost in the shuffle during my time when I was down because of the local problems.
It is now 2:00 in the morning here, so it is time for me to go to bed. Let me catch up to this on the other side of my visit with the sandman.

............................... my these 2 questions where left unanswered

 

[Piratetrader]

Re: Ichimoku III--the tenken and kijun

Piratetrader, thanks for bringing these to my attention. Evidently, your questions got lost in the shuffle during my time when I was down because of the local problems.
It is now 2:00 in the morning here, so it is time for me to go to bed. Let me catch up to this on the other side of my visit with the sandman.

yes sir . What session do you normally trade swing and intra day? US and pacific ?

 

[trade4joisar]

What was wrong here for taking long ?
i can see
* chikou is still under candles which says bearish, anything else?
* taken support @ tenken

I am long here

 

[rkgoyal_98]

Sir kindly review silver
4H cloud is not allowing it to go down while weekly cloud is not allowing to go up daily has not much concern so only move left is to go east
Is that correct
Reagards

 

[4xpipcounter]

Pirate trader, I have to answer your question in this format, because you posted a quote, and the quote won't be quoted in my quote, because the quote will only be quoted in the original quote.


Hello I have a question (without considering higher time frame).. The place where you have marked the oval.
I don;t know which market you are referring to.
the cloud was thin and we had that kumo twist in the future on the h4 ! considering if it would have happened live as a normal trader the candle went east ward and broke the dieways cloud making the full flat Span A as the solid Support and at the same time the tenken pointed north while the kinjun leaving its flat form also did the same and pointed north! as a trader here we could have gone long with a Span -A being the ultimate support and a stop loss under it. we had long Analysis from the kumo twist the T/K with Span -A being the support.Here the chinkou 26 periods behind was above the past price action and that would be bullish ! but when the candle cleared out from the kumo shadow moving eastward the price action is above the Span-A and that would be bullish ! All the things is pointing North here in my case you wanna go long with a great risk to reward ratio and as a consequence that Ultimately if we went long we would have been stopped out how do you identify these fake outs? AND THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION -
Fakeouts can be identified in many way. The one thing I always do is evaluate the other TF's. One TF will not tell the whole story. Given the condition of what you described, I can already conceptualize in my mind's eye what the chart looked like. That TF you were looking at was probably the least dominant TF.
Even in my Weekly Forecasts, I give the interim view of the markets, but that also has a lot to do with the dominant TF. A lot of things change throughout the week, which is why my views are off a few (sometimes, quite a few) pips when the week is over.
A lot of times the candle is above the cloud, the chinkou above the candles, and so it just seems so obvious. But, as soon as we start talking about eastward markets there is also a reason for that. The answer usually lies in the other TF's and other prevailing conditions.

As known There are 3 states of cloud past current and future . how do you use or how important is kumo shadows(past)/ or the past flat T/K and the past kumo Spans to enter a trade and to identify it as a support and resistance? how can you use them ? Which kumo has the strongest potential of reversal or acting as S and R the past,current or future kumo ?
If you are looking at the cloud in the past, future, or present, it is all a measure of the market's equilibrium. Another way to put it is the market's average or mean. In other words, there is always a gravitational pull towards and against those levels. With the exception of the chinkou, any place you see levelings is a measure of a S or R, because it is a mean. Price action works the same way in anything that is random or predictable. This is why when others have posted their charts on market I know nothing about why I can look at them and say this is S or this is R.
As traders using the ichimoku, we have to make a determination of each S&R's formidability. Remember that the measure are only a mean, therefore it could also mean (no pum intended there) a breakout, as it now heads to the other side of the mean.
Life is that way. If you have a classroom of 30 children-- 15 boys and 15 girls, and they are all randomly walking out the door. Let's say 5 girls just walked out the door, then 3 boys, then 5 more girls. Up to this point, there has been 10 girls and 3 boys, which means 76.9% girls, which is far above the mean of 50%. All this means is that it is time for a boy rally. The girls drifted the count too far away from equilibrium, and so the boys are going to drive it back to the mean.
Hard to believe, but the markets work the same way. The other question we're dealing with is what areas or TF's are the most dominant. Even in the classroom, it could also work the same way. If the classroom is filled with gentleman (Boys? Gentleman? Maybe that is an oxymoron.), then the dominant move would be all the girls leaving first. If the World Series is on, school is over, and the classroom is filled with baseball fans, the girls might have gotten in the way of the proverbial freight train.
The nice thing about trading is that we have charts that show us if the classroom is full of gentleman, bullies, or a mix (sideways market).


also if you could tell me the idea of what does it indicate or how do we trade when price action is above the kinjun and below the tenken in a bullish trend and vice versa in a bearish one?
All that indicates is that at least temporarily the trend is letting out some steam, at least temporarily. If there is a close on the other side of the kijun, then the question needs to be raised concerning the viability of the trnd's continuation.
OTOH, the ichimoku in all cases needs to be viewed as a holism. What are the other aspects saying, along with the other TF's?

These are all excellent questions. For anyone learning the ichimoku, I hope they are taking this in.

 

[4xpipcounter]

HI For here On the entry do we go short when the candle finally breaks the cloud and went south or is it necessary for the tenken and kinjun to break the Span B if yes then why?
I know the chart was posted somewhere in the thread, but if you post the chart or tell me the post number, then I can address it.

what happens when the tenken/kinjun is inside the cloud while the candle breaks through it ?
Getting back to the boys and girls in the classroom, it's like 16 children already walked out-- 8 boys and 8 girls. You have the ultimate status quo. The ultimate mean. The ultimate measure of the market's equilibrium. The market has reached its perfect resting place. There is not much volatility.
But!!!!! Watch out!!!! It will break.... north or south.
When the market is in that state, you probably cannot tell by looking at the TF. There are other factors, but generally speaking, the market is not going to show its hand on that one TF. Go to the other TF's and see what hey have to say. If they are saying the same thing, then go to another market. Don't sweat over a market that has reached its ultimate resting place. As traders, we hate that.

And what would have been a good time to close the trade?
That goes back to evaluating the different TF's. Unless I knwo there is going to be a breakout north or south, I'm not in a market when it is sleeping.

also you mentioned that we are heading north here which shortly happened but you see in the right bottom hand side of the current price action on the chart the candles have broken below the cloud and the Tenken is below The Kinjun represents bearish momentum while both the T/K are flat measuring equiliblirium and acting as strong R . also the bearish cloud is thick indicating higher price volatility the thicker the cloud the bearish the trend the more power the price action requires to breakafter a few hours the price moves out of the kumo eastward representing current bearishness so this is the place a trader would want to go short with the Span -B tenken and finally the ultimate kinjun( if you notice we had a t/k combo resistance) there for Resistance with a great risk to reward ratio. as a trader if some one went short with all the above idea it would have moved 270 pips south before comming back again above to the break even point(where you entered the short) Where do you wanna close the trade on this 270 pips south move on the h4?would you apply the 3 candle before kinjun on the h4 or the h1? or would you have kept the short running ?
Which market are we talking about?

 

[Piratetrader]

Pirate trader, I have to answer your question in this format, because you posted a quote, and the quote won't be quoted in my quote, because the quote will only be quoted in the original quote.


Hello I have a question (without considering higher time frame).. The place where you have marked the oval.
I don;t know which market you are referring to.
the cloud was thin and we had that kumo twist in the future on the h4 ! considering if it would have happened live as a normal trader the candle went east ward and broke the dieways cloud making the full flat Span A as the solid Support and at the same time the tenken pointed north while the kinjun leaving its flat form also did the same and pointed north! as a trader here we could have gone long with a Span -A being the ultimate support and a stop loss under it. we had long Analysis from the kumo twist the T/K with Span -A being the support.Here the chinkou 26 periods behind was above the past price action and that would be bullish ! but when the candle cleared out from the kumo shadow moving eastward the price action is above the Span-A and that would be bullish ! All the things is pointing North here in my case you wanna go long with a great risk to reward ratio and as a consequence that Ultimately if we went long we would have been stopped out how do you identify these fake outs? AND THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION -
Fakeouts can be identified in many way. The one thing I always do is evaluate the other TF's. One TF will not tell the whole story. Given the condition of what you described, I can already conceptualize in my mind's eye what the chart looked like. That TF you were looking at was probably the least dominant TF.
Even in my Weekly Forecasts, I give the interim view of the markets, but that also has a lot to do with the dominant TF. A lot of things change throughout the week, which is why my views are off a few (sometimes, quite a few) pips when the week is over.
A lot of times the candle is above the cloud, the chinkou above the candles, and so it just seems so obvious. But, as soon as we start talking about eastward markets there is also a reason for that. The answer usually lies in the other TF's and other prevailing conditions.

As known There are 3 states of cloud past current and future . how do you use or how important is kumo shadows(past)/ or the past flat T/K and the past kumo Spans to enter a trade and to identify it as a support and resistance? how can you use them ? Which kumo has the strongest potential of reversal or acting as S and R the past,current or future kumo ?
If you are looking at the cloud in the past, future, or present, it is all a measure of the market's equilibrium. Another way to put it is the market's average or mean. In other words, there is always a gravitational pull towards and against those levels. With the exception of the chinkou, any place you see levelings is a measure of a S or R, because it is a mean. Price action works the same way in anything that is random or predictable. This is why when others have posted their charts on market I know nothing about why I can look at them and say this is S or this is R.
As traders using the ichimoku, we have to make a determination of each S&R's formidability. Remember that the measure are only a mean, therefore it could also mean (no pum intended there) a breakout, as it now heads to the other side of the mean.
Life is that way. If you have a classroom of 30 children-- 15 boys and 15 girls, and they are all randomly walking out the door. Let's say 5 girls just walked out the door, then 3 boys, then 5 more girls. Up to this point, there has been 10 girls and 3 boys, which means 76.9% girls, which is far above the mean of 50%. All this means is that it is time for a boy rally. The girls drifted the count too far away from equilibrium, and so the boys are going to drive it back to the mean.
Hard to believe, but the markets work the same way. The other question we're dealing with is what areas or TF's are the most dominant. Even in the classroom, it could also work the same way. If the classroom is filled with gentleman (Boys? Gentleman? Maybe that is an oxymoron.), then the dominant move would be all the girls leaving first. If the World Series is on, school is over, and the classroom is filled with baseball fans, the girls might have gotten in the way of the proverbial freight train.
The nice thing about trading is that we have charts that show us if the classroom is full of gentleman, bullies, or a mix (sideways market).


also if you could tell me the idea of what does it indicate or how do we trade when price action is above the kinjun and below the tenken in a bullish trend and vice versa in a bearish one?
All that indicates is that at least temporarily the trend is letting out some steam, at least temporarily. If there is a close on the other side of the kijun, then the question needs to be raised concerning the viability of the trnd's continuation.
OTOH, the ichimoku in all cases needs to be viewed as a holism. What are the other aspects saying, along with the other TF's?

These are all excellent questions. For anyone learning the ichimoku, I hope they are taking this in.

Sir lol I am posting excellent question? you are welcome lol . This is the chart I was reffering to for this post

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jpg image hosting

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Ichimoku III--the tenken and kijun

I live in the US, and this is my job, so I am falling out of bed around 4:30pm your time. I always have my quiet time before reporting to work, do some reading, not to mention that Tucker has his routine.

I do not have a set time of holding a trade. I take whatever pops out at me with the strongest obviations. I measure a trade based on my personal high confidence ratio. I might hold a trade 1 hour, 1 day, 1 week, or 1 month.

yes sir . What session do you normally trade swing and intra day? US and pacific ?

 

[Piratetrader]

HI For here On the entry do we go short when the candle finally breaks the cloud and went south or is it necessary for the tenken and kinjun to break the Span B if yes then why?
I know the chart was posted somewhere in the thread, but if you post the chart or tell me the post number, then I can address it.

what happens when the tenken/kinjun is inside the cloud while the candle breaks through it ?
Getting back to the boys and girls in the classroom, it's like 16 children already walked out-- 8 boys and 8 girls. You have the ultimate status quo. The ultimate mean. The ultimate measure of the market's equilibrium. The market has reached its perfect resting place. There is not much volatility.
But!!!!! Watch out!!!! It will break.... north or south.
When the market is in that state, you probably cannot tell by looking at the TF. There are other factors, but generally speaking, the market is not going to show its hand on that one TF. Go to the other TF's and see what hey have to say. If they are saying the same thing, then go to another market. Don't sweat over a market that has reached its ultimate resting place. As traders, we hate that.

And what would have been a good time to close the trade?
That goes back to evaluating the different TF's. Unless I knwo there is going to be a breakout north or south, I'm not in a market when it is sleeping.

also you mentioned that we are heading north here which shortly happened but you see in the right bottom hand side of the current price action on the chart the candles have broken below the cloud and the Tenken is below The Kinjun represents bearish momentum while both the T/K are flat measuring equiliblirium and acting as strong R . also the bearish cloud is thick indicating higher price volatility the thicker the cloud the bearish the trend the more power the price action requires to breakafter a few hours the price moves out of the kumo eastward representing current bearishness so this is the place a trader would want to go short with the Span -B tenken and finally the ultimate kinjun( if you notice we had a t/k combo resistance) there for Resistance with a great risk to reward ratio. as a trader if some one went short with all the above idea it would have moved 270 pips south before comming back again above to the break even point(where you entered the short) Where do you wanna close the trade on this 270 pips south move on the h4?would you apply the 3 candle before kinjun on the h4 or the h1? or would you have kept the short running ?
Which market are we talking about?

This is the live market that I was asking about on this post

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