Monkey King's Oily Tales (Day Trading Crude Oil)

[Monkey King]

Been in a lot of confusion the past few days. Pumped in 10 L into the account with the intention to begin full and final trading but did not trade. Yesterday withdrew everything and left just 6 k in the account. The new plan is to run the final test on myself with 1 mini lot and aim to garner an average of roughy 50 points or so daily. Say I can even remain close to 20 points on an average daily over some 50 odd days I will be truly confident to handle a bigger capital. Stop loss for day will be about 25 points gross during this period.

Lol, feeling lost at times as to the poa and wasted a lot of days being unsure.

Let me see for a few weeks on 1 mini lot as it will be a much more sensible approach than going all out. After all, I have no deadlines to meet, which should give me a lot of comfort and allow me to trade stress free for a few weeks at least.

May start today or on Monday as I will run live my set up as have tuned chart for slightly swing based kind of trading asf
Ctf 15 min
20,50,200 ema
50 Williams r%

I'll try and update my trades with the chart to reason out my entry and exit as far as possible.

Whew, the perils of taking up full time day trading, lol.

 

[Monkey King]

Lol, quick into a trade today.

In just now asf
1 crude mini lot July short @ 4111
Sl is over 20 ema on 15 min @ 4023
Target is 4050 @ 1 hour 50 ema

Crude may test the 50 ema before bounce back or tanking as per my analysis. Long trend up but this 50 ema test is crucial to check if this is a pullback.

Will not micro manage trades anymore.
If it does touch 4080 then sl will be modified to 4100 and that will be the only planned intervention. Looks good on paper but let me see if I follow the plan. Win or loss is less worrisome than discipline right now.

 

[Deelipenergy]

Lol, quick into a trade today.

In just now asf
1 crude mini lot July short @ 4111
Sl is over 20 ema on 15 min @ 4023
Target is 4050 @ 1 hour 50 ema

Crude may test the 50 ema before bounce back or tanking as per my analysis. Long trend up but this 50 ema test is crucial to check if this is a pullback.

Will not micro manage trades anymore.
If it does touch 4080 then sl will be modified to 4100 and that will be the only planned intervention. Looks good on paper but let me see if I follow the plan. Win or loss is less worrisome than discipline right now.

View attachment 35762

View attachment 35763

Bhai,
long trend is up, so wouldn't it be more safe to look for long trades only on pullbacks in
smaller timeframes. My two cents.
That would be still more stress free

 

[Monkey King]

Bhai,
long trend is up, so wouldn't it be more safe to look for long trades only on pullbacks in
smaller timeframes. My two cents.
That would be still more stress free

True, in normal circumstances I would never shot the same scenario. I would wait for it to come over the 20 ema to buy. But I was looking at the inventory yesterday that should have blasted crude through the roof but did not and that made me rethink and look closer. If we look fundamentally at today I do not see any bullish news coming up. If news wise the day is neutral too then I do not see bulls pull this up. Of bearish even slight, I will have my target.

Remember, I am a newbie and this view is from the small window of my limited experience.

Yes, you are right. Trading pullbacks is high risk, very high risk. That is the the reason I chose a area of value as an entry where my risk reward justified the risk.

As long as 20 ema on 15 min holds I am in, else out when my sl triggers.

I don't see a success rate of more than 50 % in such counter trend pullback trading at least for myself. Lol.

 

[Monkey King]

Update - shifted tsl to 4113, so now my risk is 2 pts on the trade. (Shot was 4111).

 

[Monkey King]

Update - expect 20 ema on the 1 hr to offer some resistance before breaking. I just hope crude does not throw a sl Hunter to kick me out of the trade. If no sl Hunter I think it looks good to go to my target while testing 50 ema on the 1 hour . The 2 pm hourly candle is crucial to this trade, wait and watch is all I need to do now, i guess. 2 point loss or some 60 odd points gain, lol.

 

[Monkey King]

Update - tsl shifted to 4100. 13 points in the pocket. No more changes, trade run to trigger any side now.

1815 update - removed target. (Tsl in place @ 4100). Will let it run to auto expiry (this is a mis lot). If 20 ema on 1 hour holds then this cut is running a deep deep red.
Waiting and watching.

 

[Monkey King]

Pit bull spike ate my sl, lol. 11 pts from the trade. Watching if this is a bull trap or not. May take a last trade for the day after us open now.

 

[Monkey King]

Trade 002
Scalp
Sold 4108, exit buy @ 4098

Edit trade 003 scalp
Sold 4100, exit buy @ 4095

 

[Monkey King]

Long @ 4110 just now, let me see.
Plan to hold a while, positional.

Entry as 20/50 ema crossover on ctf 15 min (ref ctf 1 hr bullish), sl will be tsl below 50 ema as positional