Learning to catch High Probability Breakouts

[nitingosavi]

Posted a few weekly charts of some major stocks in last two posts.

ALL BEARISH POSSIBILITIES

many have broken major supports.
some just started to initial symptoms of weakness.
some near major supports showing a possibility to break those.

as all above are weekly charts expected possible moves should be BIG.
But for all this to happen we will have to watch carefully how nifty behaves in 7400-7450-7500 zone. I am somewhat confident we are going to see near 7450.

As Anil Trivedi sir mentioned "when a major sup/res breaks and if stock prices reverses again after breaking it, can be a big reversal". and all those are weekly charts near or below major trend lines /supports, we will have to be more careful while choosing/entering a trade and about s/l.

In case of axisbank chart, I have marked a thick black neckline, but I am not sure if it's a valid HnS. If yes... Balle Balle !!

looks like AUTO's still have much more pain left. PSU banks will fall some and consolidate or will start a process to prepare base, but Private sector banks may lead the fall.

Its just my views and can go very very wrong !

See ya next week end ! with fresh charts .. till then Have nice time ! GN !

 

[amitrandive]

Amit bhai,which website have you used to make that comparisons ?

http://netdania.com/Products/live-s.../real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx?m=c

It is not just comparisons , the inter-market analysis is important.

 

[amitrandive]

Sectoral Investing
http://finance.zacks.com/strongest-weakest-stocks-sector-8811.html

You must invest in stocks for the long term. This evergreen advice by market experts must be read with a caveat - you must be ever ready to change course to gain from the changes in market cycles .

Finding the strongest and weakest stocks in various sectors can be a highly profitable endeavor for traders and investors. At the very least, it lets investors know which stocks are leaders and which ones to avoid. Aggressive traders will often buy the strong and short the weak, potentially increasing their profits as a result.

Find which sector are in favor and which are out of favor. This strategy works best in markets that are trending higher. By identifying sector leaders, investors have already won part of the battle because they inevitably find some of the stocks that are truly contributing to broader market strength. Additionally, the laggards in a strong sector usually have a reason for lagging. For example, assume that energy is a sector leader at a particular time and nearly all of the large-cap oil stocks, except ABC Inc., are soaring. By identifying a leader, the investor found not only stocks to go long, but also a possible opportunity to sell short ABC.

 

[amitrandive]

Technical analysis , simple or complex ?

Daily Chart of Nifty

Is Techncial Analysis simple or complicated?

Were we not able to spot the short at the two places indicated solely based on support/resistance, moving average and price action?
Traders may say, there are many places this support was broken.
But pullpacks to major moving averages at important support level,if that is not a high probability trade what is ?

Things are simple as they are, we tend to make them more complicated.
"Simplicity is the best sophistication"

 

[anilnegi]

Technical analysis , simple or complex ?

Daily Chart of Nifty

Is Techncial Analysis simple or complicated?

Were we not able to spot the short at the two places indicated solely based on support/resistance, moving average and price action?
Traders may say, there are many places this support was broken.
But pullpacks to major moving averages at important support level,if that is not a high probability trade what is ?

Things are simple as they are, we tend to make them more complicated.
"Simplicity is the best sophistication"

Amit ji

i dont think both lever are worth trading, yes in first u can say it was lower ph along with bearish engulfing, but in second top if you would see the second bar it was closing around 7788, so it must take a guts to take short around those level where your sl is around 200 points away

thanks

anil negi

 

[chavanms]

Dear Amit ,

I am posting one image of divergence BHEL -I future , Request for your view

Regards

Mukesh

 

[chavanms]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7NnPsTFF8YcZjlMMlV5b3RmbWM/view?usp=docslist_api[/IMG]

 

[amitrandive]

Amit ji

i dont think both lever are worth trading, yes in first u can say it was lower ph along with bearish engulfing, but in second top if you would see the second bar it was closing around 7788, so it must take a guts to take short around those level where your sl is around 200 points away

thanks

anil negi

Depends on your system and risk appetite.I shorted at both levels..I am sure many traders would have shorted at these levels and made good points.

Can you show me where the stop loss is 200 points ?
In the second case it is a trade @ 100EMA pullback , not 20 EMA pullback.
Also check the resistance level is 7970-7980 which is the blue horizontal line.

Issue is not being able to catch the trades,issue is looking at the bigger picture to simplify analysis.

We are here to learn by posting charts and sharing.

 

[amitrandive]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7NnPsTFF8YcZjlMMlV5b3RmbWM/view?usp=docslist_api[/IMG]

Please post chart here ,google drive access denied .

 

[chavanms]

http://i.imgur.com/56Tw7pH.jpg