Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

prada

Well-Known Member
Hello Dear Members,
In my earlier post, I had cautioned you'll regarding loss of momentum on the upside. What we've now witnessed is a reversal and there are clear signs of market picking up momentum on the downside. We have now entered a phase of correction. Refrain from buying the dips unless the price action indicates otherwise. How far the correction can extend is any ones guess. We need to now work with support/resistance. Earlier pivot low of 14977 although was briefly breached intraday, Nifty barely managed to cling onto to it on a closing basis. The longer the index manages to sustain below this level, there is every chance it will gravitate to its crucial support of 14650-14450 level in the days ahead. We haven't formed major pivots on the way down. If this is the case, then we need to work with the hourly pivots. The hourly pivot is now at 15150 and this should be the trailing stop if one is short. Breach below Friday's low will accentuate the trend. Trail your stops on hourly pivots and stay short! Fresh shorts can be initiated on retracements( or breach and sustenance below Friday's low) after carefully studying the price action. Support bands for the week ahead - 14886-14920, 14720-14780, 14570-14640 and finally 14430 ( Major support level). Resistance band- 15180-15250. Weekly close below 14430 will pave way for a lot of pain head! Expect volatility to pick up going forward!

Coming now to Casino Bank Nifty :) Being a conservative trader, I personally don't trade much in this index. But I'll post my take on it. Daily close and then further sustenance below 35750 level should see it plummeting to 34150 level in relatively quick time. Simple reason being there are no major pivot supports from 32570-35750 level. 50% of this gap gives me a target of 34150. I'm pretty confident that it will test this level in the days ahead!

All the best to your trading!
PraDa
 

prada

Well-Known Member
Momentum is just about picking up in Bank Nifty. Aggressively short on the index with SL at todays high. This is a positional trade. Will trail stops as per the pivots. Market playing out as per the above script.
 

prada

Well-Known Member
Scenario.... Seems like its game over for the bulls looking at the price action so far. It the 4 hourly candle sustains and closes below the trend line and with a abandoned doji on daily, we should aim for 13800 in the weeks ahead. Although I was stopped out of bank nifty trade at cost, I continued to hold on to Nifty shorts since the major hourly pivot continued to be at 15150. Yesterday's price action kept rejecting the pivot which convinced me to roll over the short position. Today will be a confirmation candle for the downtrend. Will watch the close and then add on to the short position. Good luck!
tvc_4661ea5a881a97537c6eccc627334962.png
 

Nish

Well-Known Member
Scenario.... Seems like its game over for the bulls looking at the price action so far. It the 4 hourly candle sustains and closes below the trend line and with a abandoned doji on daily, we should aim for 13800 in the weeks ahead. Although I was stopped out of bank nifty trade at cost, I continued to hold on to Nifty shorts since the major hourly pivot continued to be at 15150. Yesterday's price action kept rejecting the pivot which convinced me to roll over the short position. Today will be a confirmation candle for the downtrend. Will watch the close and then add on to the short position. Good luck!
View attachment 45575
Best Luck ! :)

As per current N PE, profit booking is prudent on higher levels, but wide swings in Vix along with high liquidity supply is a problem for positional trades - anything is posible in stock markets -if SL not applied or not hedged properly !

For newbees study about P/E and PB ratio:

https://nifty-pe-ratio.com/

https://equityfriend.com/investment...ifty-pb-chart-nifty-dividend-yield-chart.html
 

prada

Well-Known Member
Hello Members,

In my post dated 13th Feb, I had clearly cautioned you'll regarding the upcoming trend reversal and that the next big trade will be on the downside. What a terrific move we have witnessed so far. Although there was a shake out move that played out couple of days back, it just wasn't convincing to me. Many were expecting a budget week sort of a move to play out, but I was confident that it was a fake out/bull trap. Expect an acceleration in the week ahead if the last pivot low of 14635 resists. Price action around this level will indicate the next big trend. This is the war zone +/- 100 points. In my opinion we have entered a multi week style of correction and it will take some time before we see new all time highs any time soon. Corrections are always healthy for the market ! Avoid bottom fishing unless the price action indicates otherwise. Initiate fresh shorts on pull backs and have strict stoplosses in place at the previous hourly pivots. The last hourly pivot is now at 14700 (spot). Support/Resistance bands for the previous week, worked like charm. Now for the coming week Support band- 14230-14370, 13960-14098 and 14430 being a critical weekly support level. Resistance band- 14650-14730, 14790-14870. In a bull market linear corrections suggest we will have sharp retracements and that the chances of uptrend being intact is high, but these a/b/c style corrections call for attention. This can challenge the primary trend especially after a very very sharp run up! Stay very cautious if you are a near term bull.
Coming to bank nifty! check the chart below which is very self explanatory. Neckline break gives a pretty straight forward target of 32500 which is also confluence of supports. Pretty safe re-entry opportunity coming up if one is on the side lines to buy. There is a demand zone band at 34000-34500 which should eventually give way!
BN.png


My trade rationale on Friday before close. Chart below. Being a conservative trader, I patiently wait for a confirmation to add to my existing short positions. Risk:Reward > 3 seemed quite appealing to me. Good luck to your trading! Have a great week end!

TRADE RATIONALE.png
 
More like a straight line cut that was witnessed in Jan without pull backs.
had that feeling on Banknifty on Wednesday after the trading resumed at 3.45, after the glitch. It kept on going up without even pausing for breath.
 

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