Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[Option.Trader]

Hi Bobo,
There is one strategy in 315 that supports your view.

If nifty makes a move that is more than 10% after 3ema crosses 15ema, and yet not touched 15ema, then there will be a correction till 3ema crosses below 15ema for the first time. Once this happens, the correction is over, and the trend resumes. In our case, the bullish trend resumes.

At present, 3EMA is 6774 and 15EMA is 6684. So for 3EMA to cross below 15EMA, we can see a target close to 6500. Once this happens, the very next day, the bullish trend resumes.

Let's see!

Just a silly question, all these ema can occur for minute, hourly, day, monthly, yearly. Who decides which one will nifty follow. And is nifty a mathematical machine to follow these statistics?

 

[toocool]

I think he is talking on daily charts Ema, and I think it must be working thing not seen it but possible

 

[DSM]

It's a good question actually. However, needs to be reframed. It's not that the Nifty/BankNifty follows the EMA's or SMA's. But there is a concept called 'reversion to mean' and as such, after a runup of price away from the MA's (whichever it may be), price will pause and allow for MA's to play catch-up. After a trending move, I have some memorable trades of taking position on price touch of SMA 20. Oliver Velez has popularized this technique, and on a daily TF, it can be quite profitable. Incidentally, have posted something on MA's in my thread. You can check it out.

http://www.traderji.com/general-tra...ney-markets-method-madness-39.html#post957392

Just a silly question, all these ema can occur for minute, hourly, day, monthly, yearly. Who decides which one will nifty follow. And is nifty a mathematical machine to follow these statistics?

 

[Option.Trader]

It's a good question actually. However, needs to be reframed. It's not that the Nifty/BankNifty follows the EMA's or SMA's. But there is a concept called 'reversion to mean' and as such, after a runup of price away from the MA's (whichever it may be), price will pause and allow for MA's to play catch-up. After a trending move, I have some memorable trades of taking position on price touch of SMA 20. Oliver Velez has popularized this technique, and on a daily TF, it can be quite profitable. Incidentally, have posted something on MA's in my thread. You can check it out.

http://www.traderji.com/general-tra...ney-markets-method-madness-39.html#post957392

Yes I have seen this, for eg in this series you could have added at 10min TF at 50 EMA and below 100 EMA as stop loss, but in the long run it just averages out like reverting to mean

 

[surya.nifty]

Just a silly question, all these ema can occur for minute, hourly, day, monthly, yearly. Who decides which one will nifty follow. And is nifty a mathematical machine to follow these statistics?

Hi,

No one decides which one will nifty follow.

Nifty itself decides which one to follow. And that one again will follow Nifty.

Nifty is mathematical but not machine to follow. All indicators are machines/formulas designed to follow nifty.

surya.

 

[trade4putuval]

Just a silly question, all these ema can occur for minute, hourly, day, monthly, yearly. Who decides which one will nifty follow. And is nifty a mathematical machine to follow these statistics?

Just my view because it has been tried and tested. You can back-test it yourself. And FYI, it is the daily chart.

And for technical indicators, I will not debate on it. My comments were for people who believes in technical indicators. I still trade on this strategy even if it has failed me a considerable number of times.

 

[gunsho]

Just a silly question, all these ema can occur for minute, hourly, day, monthly, yearly. Who decides which one will nifty follow. And is nifty a mathematical machine to follow these statistics?

IMHO, Nifty/any script doesn't follow anything. Infact all price action are randomn in nature. The technical indicators are to give us some entry/exit mechanism in trading. They mean nothing to Nifty. Infact there is no meaning to technical indicators. What matters is the Risk/Reward we keep while taking the trades. One EMA/timeframe works this month, another EMA/timeframe works next month . Thats the reason we keep saying ourselves there is no holygrail in trading

Consistency with one indicator (EMA/EW/RSI/Stoch/Pure price action) and maintaining RiskReward, its just matter of time, trading will give huge rewards :thumb:

 

[a1b1trader]

IMHO, Nifty/any script doesn't follow anything. Infact all price action are randomn in nature. The technical indicators are to give us some entry/exit mechanism in trading. They mean nothing to Nifty. Infact there is no meaning to technical indicators. What matters is the Risk/Reward we keep while taking the trades. One EMA/timeframe works this month, another EMA/timeframe works next month . Thats the reason we keep saying ourselves there is no holygrail in trading

Consistency with one indicator (EMA/EW/RSI/Stoch/Pure price action) and maintaining RiskReward, its just matter of time, trading will give huge rewards :thumb:

Sorry Gunsho, to disagree with your views.
What I have experienced in last 2 months or so,
I believe, there exists some kind of 'holygrail'.

 

[Option.Trader]

Sorry Gunsho, to disagree with your views.
What I have experienced in last 2 months or so,
I believe, there exists some kind of 'holygrail'.

Yes, left for each one of us to discover on our own!

 

[Rish]

IMHO, Nifty/any script doesn't follow anything. Infact all price action are randomn in nature. The technical indicators are to give us some entry/exit mechanism in trading. They mean nothing to Nifty. Infact there is no meaning to technical indicators. What matters is the Risk/Reward we keep while taking the trades. One EMA/timeframe works this month, another EMA/timeframe works next month . Thats the reason we keep saying ourselves there is no holygrail in trading

Consistency with one indicator (EMA/EW/RSI/Stoch/Pure price action) and maintaining RiskReward, its just matter of time, trading will give huge rewards :thumb:

Yourself you have agreed it is working...definitely market is moving based on some calculation, that is the unknown factor all we are searching..

Let us not ignore the Technical, which can be used as a value addition for our trade...