Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[DanPickUp]

the way market is rising ...I'm scared to take any position....intraday is safer than positional gap ups/downs

May they did not drink much champagne in the States at new years evening and now they go for the full bottles. :lol:

Not much has changed as the next fiscal decision will have to pass the house at the end of February. So, the game is not over or even better. But why not go long with any kind of hedged stategy to have at least some money in the place, in case markets will be drunk for an other one or two days.

Good trading

DanPickUp

 

[SexyTrader]

May they did not drink much champagne in the States at new years evening and now they go for the full bottles. :lol:

Not much has changed as the next fiscal decision will have to pass the house at the end of February. So, the game is not over or even better. But why not go long with any kind of hedged stategy to have at least some money in the place, in case markets will be drunk for an other one or two days.

Good trading

DanPickUp

Looks like the speculators are sucking in buyers with this fake rally, to raise prices for a nice Short-selling plunge downwards in some time

 

[megapixel]

May they did not drink much champagne in the States at new years evening and now they go for the full bottles. :lol:

Not much has changed as the next fiscal decision will have to pass the house at the end of February. So, the game is not over or even better. But why not go long with any kind of hedged stategy to have at least some money in the place, in case markets will be drunk for an other one or two days.

Good trading

DanPickUp

I was really thinking about this for last two days whether to go with a hedging strategy but did not put in money because of the following strategy failure reasons

[N.B: at this point I am bit bearish and thinking about short selling ....market is already in a overbought situations.]

Strategy 1:

short nifty future this month expiry + long nifty future next month expiry.
=> if market tanks I can book profit from shorts.
however long nifty future in next month will also be in loss in same proportion ..though I'll get some time till next month to recover the loss ....but I don't think this is possible because nifty is not going to come back to 6000 level any more after a fall ...so there will be no chance of recovery of the loss

Strategy 2:

short nifty future this month + buy an OTM Call as an insurance
umm... not sure ...worried about time decay

Do you see any good hedging strategy at this point ?

 

[DanPickUp]

I was really thinking about this for last two days whether to go with hedging strategy but did not put in money because of the following reasons

first of all ...at this point I am bit bearish and thinking about short selling ....market is already in a overbought situations.

Strategy 1:
short nifty future this month expiry + long nifty future next month expiry.
=> if market tanks I can book profit from shorts.
however long nifty future in next month will also be in loss in same proportion ..though I'll get some time till next month to recover the loss ....but I don't think this is possible because nifty is not going to come back to 6000 level any more after a fall ...so there will be no chance of recovery of the loss

Strategy 2:

short nifty future this month + buy an OTM Call as an insurance
umm... worried about time decay if market is stuck and range bound eating premium ....doing nothing.


Do you see any good hedging strategy at this point ?

There are always hedge strategies you can trade. It all depends on how you can handle them and understand them in detail. As you trade in India, any hedge which include any short position you keep for more as for just day trading, your margins just explode. So no hedge with shorts are recommended for retailers in India markets, except calendar spreads.

What to do?

There is a guy in the forum with the name Santosh2010 and he shows ideas with long straddles. First I was very skeptical the way he posted it and I also posted that thoughts as he not mentioned any kind of risk people take when doing such hedges. In the mean time he makes a note like< Risky traders take only>.

As he gives ideas in your market, I think you have to check that as this is so far the best long straddle idea I have seen posted in this place about Nifty takes.

Long straddles are difficult in low volatile markets and are nicely to trade in break out and markets which just explode. What he did< He added the future to the whole strategy and that is a nice move, even I do trade such ideas in an other way. But that is personal choice and I even showed in a later stage in the thread how my picture looks.

You may read through the following link, in which you also see my very critical comment which I finally smoothed down when the idea showed profit. I also sometimes make mistakes in my thoughts and trading and I do not mind to say when I did so.

http://www.traderji.com/advanced-trading-strategies/76421-nifty-future-hedge-trading.html#post741664

Good trading and that may is the idea you where looking for

DanPickUp

 

[megapixel]

You may read through the following link, in which you also see my very critical comment which I finally smoothed down when the idea showed profit. I also sometimes make mistakes in my thoughts and trading and I do not mind to say when I did so.

http://www.traderji.com/advanced-trading-strategies/76421-nifty-future-hedge-trading.html#post741664

Good trading and that may is the idea you where looking for

DanPickUp

I just gone though that link.....I liked it .....looks interesting. However I just did not get part how he is deciding when to exit or stop loss a leg ? he did not talk about stop loss rule clearly though. any idea what was stop loss rule in his trade ? I see he is exiting loosing leg in his trade and holding profitable legs ....but he did not comment on his stop loss/exit rule ....any idea ?

 

[DanPickUp]

Ask him. And if you are interested in it, make a paper trade, follow your positions day by day, calculate the profits and losses and you will get the idea by your self where to set your personal stop loss in case he not answers any of your questions.

Enter the trade when you are around S or R on any chart picture or before a special event happen, check in advance the vola which should be low and try to get filled at delta levels, means both options should be priced as nearly as the same as when one looses value, the other will add the same kind of value.

If market not moves strongly in one direction, you just sell both of the long legs and on that whole price you set your stop loss. If you spent 200 Rs on both, you set the stop loss on that 200 Rs and the price of the future.

The problem could be that you not have any excel sheet or software which gives you that prices at any time the market stays. If you not have such a software or excel sheet, then you may are in trouble with such kind of trading.

Even then, go as you do now with what you do now when it brings any money.

Good luck

DanPickUp

 

[saddaum]

Ill go short only if nifty breach 5840
nifty is very positive
every deep will be accumulated .............

 

[prada]

Short term trend is up as long as Nifty is above 5917 on a closing basis! Target 6180-6200.

 

[saddaum]

I have shorts in niifty
high probability of breaking 5840
hope it don t

 

[prada]

Start lightening long positions in Nifty and accumulate shorts in Bank Nifty. Meaningful correction can be expected. Global markets have started showing signs of topping out. Although Nifty can resume its uptrend targeting 6180-6200 after the correction, its not worth the risk.